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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
334 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Short term...
no issues for tonight and early Monday as broad high pressure over
the eastern U.S. Gives way to approaching cold front currently
moving across the middle plains states. Upper trough sharpens
while dropping southward to ensure front moves off the coast
Monday evening. Moisture is limited along the front but should
encounter deeper Gulf sourced moisture Monday afternoon for a
chance of showers/storms immediately along the front. Morning lows
should fall below normal Tuesday morning with daytime highs near
normal.

Long term...
Continental high pressure builds eastward and holds firm well into
next weekend. This will induce easterly flow regime that will have
some gradient compression at times as waves moves through the middle-
Gulf. The models are particulary keen on one wave later in the
week that may attempt to close a surface low off the mouth of the
river. The GFS takes this feature northward into the Mississippi
coast as a possible depression next Saturday night/Sunday morning.
The European model (ecmwf) has this same feature moving into the Florida Panhandle
next Monday. Despite this outcome...the pattern would favor
persistent easterly flow enough to bring a high tidal response to
east-facing shores latter half of the week into the weekend.
Temperatures will be on the lower side of normal for morning lows
but daytime highs should reach warmer side of normal each day.
Rain chances will slowly creep upwards Thursday Onward but may be
limited to near coastal areas in easterly flow regime. 24/rr

&&

Aviation...
mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the taf
forecast period. A period of MVFR visibilities due to patchy fog will be
possible late tonight and early Monday morning...09z to 13z...at the
more taf prone sites. A cold front will approach and move into the
area from the north Monday. 11

&&

Marine...
a tight pressure gradient across the coastal waters east of the
Mississippi River is resulting in a continuation of elevated winds
this afternoon in this area. The pressure gradient is expected to
relax later this afternoon. Winds across the coastal waters should
diminish tonight and Monday. A cold front will approach the central
Gulf Coast from the north late Monday and then push across the
coastal waters Monday night. Offshore flow will increase in the wake
of this front late Monday night into Tuesday. An extended period of
stronger easterly flow will commence Wednesday and continue through
the end of the week as the pressure gradient once again tightens
across the north Gulf. Small craft advisories will likely be
necessary for the last half of the work week. 11

&&

Decision support...
dss code...green.
Deployed...none.
Activation...none.
Activities...slurry support.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 70 86 58 86 / 10 10 10 10
btr 70 89 60 83 / 10 30 10 10
asd 70 89 62 85 / 10 30 10 10
msy 74 88 70 82 / 10 30 10 10
gpt 71 89 63 84 / 10 30 10 10
pql 68 88 60 84 / 10 30 10 10

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

24/rr

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