Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
Aviation...will stay with VFR and vcsh based on latest hrrr and
favorable upper level wind pattern, nocturnal Gulf development,
and ample moisture. By middle-morning Sunday thunderstorms in the vicinity and VFR except aex
where better precipitation chances from a moisture pool will result in
predominant -tsra with VFR to start with. Will let subsequent
radar imagery define periods of any MVFR tempos. Upper level
divergence should aid in convection on Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
local 88ds show the activity moving across the northestern zones...
associated with an advancing shortwave aloft and helped along
earlier by the interaction with the afternoon seabreeze...is
gradually diminishing with time. Likewise additional convection
associated with another weaker shortwave upstream is dissipating
as it crosses the Red River valley. Have adjusted probability of precipitation for the
remainder of the night based on each of these trends...moral of
the story is diminishing probability of precipitation with time tonight. Elsewhere just
minor tweaks...update out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 753 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
pop grids/zones updated mainly across the northern 1/2 of the area
based on latest radar trends as large area of convection has blown
up as southward-moving outflow convection collided with inland-advancing
sea breeze boundary.
Previous discussion... /issued 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
Aviation...convection continues around aex for another couple of
hours with tempo IFR. Thunderstorms in the vicinity around lch due to cumulonimbus development to the
southwest near the coast...should be done in a few hours with the
loss of daytime heating. VFR with multilayered clouds on Sunday
and light southerly winds as the upper trough moves eastward and
produces thunderstorms in the vicinity for lft and Ara Sunday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving west to east
across our region this afternoon...producing plenty of lightning...
heavy rain...and occasionally some strong winds. This activity is
expected to decrease in coverage as we head towards the evening
hours...before dissipating after sunset.
Another round of active weather is expected on Sunday...starting
in the morning as a few showers moving onshore...before a more
active sea breeze scenario again in the afternoon. However
sundays weather is expected to be higher in coverage in Acadiana
and central Louisiana...and lower in southeast Texas.
For the work-week...there will be a much lower risk for
thunderstorms than what we have had this weekend...mainly a 20
percent coverage for diurnal activity is expected each day.
With less thunderstorms...expecting temperatures to rise a couple
of degrees for the afternoon highs this week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 74 90 75 93 / 60 40 10 10
lch 76 90 77 92 / 20 20 10 10
lft 75 90 76 92 / 50 30 10 10
bpt 77 91 78 92 / 20 20 10 10