Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1202 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
for 06z taf issuance.
surface observation indicate visibilities are running 10sm all sites at this time...
although a quick walk outside does show some mifg already
developing at klch. Satellite imagery shows just cirrus flowing
overhead. In addition to reasonable radiating conditions forecast
soundings/time-height sections show sufficient boundary layer
moisture pooling for fog development later tonight especially for
the southern sites. Kara looks to be of particular concern as temperatures
have already dropped to near crossover values...thus have carried
worst conditions there prior to sunrise. Main issue once
conditions improve by middle-morning will be moderate srly winds with
speeds expected to exceed 10 knots all sites by afternoon...which
will relax as usual with sunset.
Previous discussion... /issued 940 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/
Update...forecast looks good. No evening update required.
Previous discussion... /issued 656 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/
for 00z taf issuance.
late afternoon satellite imagery/surface observation indicate the heating-
induced cumulus is dissipating with time as expected...leaving behind a
clearing sky. Not many changes were made to inherited tafs with
VFR conditions expected to continue until late night when
restrictions to visibility/low clouds begin to develop.
Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/
Discussion...a front has stalled from Texarkana to around
Atlanta today and will return north while washing out through
tonight. The ridge to the south of the front and across the
northeast Gulf and the local area will remain in place through the
remainder of the week. This will continue to provide and generally
south flow through Friday keeping the area warm and moist. Aloft
weak ridge will occur Tuesday into Wednesday with the ridge
eroding during Wednesday as an upper disturbance approaches. The
chance for rain will increase as the disturbance approaches Wednesday
and linger into Thursday.
Thursday into Friday a low will move east across the southern planes
into the middle Mississippi Valley. As the surface low departs a
cold front will drop south and pass through the region by Saturday
morning. Showers and storms are expected to accompany the boundary
followed by a 10 to 20 degree drop in temperatures for the
Marine...a light to moderate south flow will remain in place
across the coastal waters through the week as high pressure
remain stretched from the NE Gulf across the northern Gulf Coast.
An upper disturbance will pass the area Wednesday and Thursday
with a few showers and thunderstorms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 59 82 61 80 / 0 10 10 30
lch 61 81 63 80 / 0 10 10 20
lft 61 82 62 80 / 0 10 10 20
bpt 62 81 64 80 / 0 10 10 30