Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1215 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
for the 23/18z taf issuance.
upper level trough will move west to east across the region this
afternoon. Extensive upper level cloudiness will be the result
with clearing skies during the evening. Otherwise...light...mainly
northeast winds from a surface ridge will prevail...and this will
keep VFR conditions through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 1026 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/
surface analysis shows high pressure ridging over the eastern U.S. SW
into the Gulf Coast. Water vapor Sat imagery shows upper trough
nicely over c and West Texas...bringing middle/high level clouds over East Texas
into west la this morning. Area radars actually some echo returns
over NE Texas with this feature. With the dry air in place at the
lower levels...expecting most if not all of this is virga...or not
reaching the ground.
For our forecast...made minor adjustments to increase the cloud
cover from west to east this morning and afternoon. With the cloud cover
and weak cold air advection from the NE...afternoon highs of the middle 70s still
look good in forecast.
Previous discussion... /issued 641 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/
Aviation...VFR and northeast winds under 10 kts will prevail
through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 506 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/
no major changes to the forecast this morning...as the mild and
dry pattern looks to persist into the weekend.
Elongated upper trough quite evident in water vapor imagery across
the central Continental U.S. Is prognosticated to continue east today. Light radar
returns and ob reports of dz/-ra showing up over central/eastern
Texas this morning with this feature. As it continues east into
decreasing mean layer relative humidity...it will become more difficult to
squeeze out even that. Thus...will continue with a dry forecast for
today/tonight. Just a little more in the way of cloud cover.
As the upper trough axis passes east of the region tonight and a
ridge builds over The Four Corners...a deep northerly flow will
develop...and persist into Saturday as the ridge slowly treks
east. By sun...with the ridge pulling east of the area while also
flattening out ahead of an advancing western Continental U.S. Trough...south winds
are expected to return...providing a more significant moderation
to the dry Continental air in place. Warming temperatures and
increasing moisture will result...along with low end rain chances.
The global guidance is still in poor agreement by early next
week...though the European model (ecmwf) has trended a little more in the direction
of the GFS...indicating a weaker front more likely to limp into
the area. As a result...extended small probability of precipitation into Tuesday night and
Wednesday...but left dry thereafter given the present uncertainty.
offshore flow is expected to continue into the weekend as a large
area of surface high pressure prevails over the eastern half of
the U.S. Into the northern Gulf Coast. The high is forecast to
shift east toward the middle Atlantic on Sunday...with southerly
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 76 53 78 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
kbpt 77 55 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
kaex 74 49 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
klft 76 51 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 0