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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1151 PM CDT sun may 3 2015 major updates. Will add tempo MVFR at aex for late
tonight. Otherwise...VFR. Will need to monitor easterly wave to
see if this can add enough instability to trigger some
showers/storms late Monday for lft and Ara. For now...will keep
dry weather in tafs.


Previous discussion... /issued 938 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

high pressure sits east of the region...allowing for a lt southeasterly flow
this evening. Skies have become mostly clear across the area except
for some scattered stratocu over the Atchafalaya basin. Another mild
night expected with lows falling to around 60 degrees across much of
the area...lower 60s across southeast Texas. Other than minor adjustments to
hourly temps/dewpoints/winds...forecast remains in good shape and no
update is expected. 24

Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

blocky patter set to take shape across the Continental U.S....with mean
troughs over the western Continental U.S. And Bahamas/western Atlantic...and a narrow
ridge extending from central Mexico NE toward the middle Atlantic. In
the low to middle levels...ridging will remain centered generally off
to the east...with quasi-persistent trofiness over the Rocky
Mountains. This will yield a prolonged period of south to
southeast low level moist flow...while at the same time resulting
in little significant forcing mechanisms.

The one exception in the short term will be a weak easterly
wave/inverted trough...easily identified in visible satellite
imagery this afternoon over the Gulf waters between Cuba and the
Florida Panhandle. This feature is prognosticated to continue west to
west-northwest...traversing the region tomorrow and tomorrow night. Along
with a generally tightening pressure gradient over the
region...this wave will act to enhance the southeast winds over
the coastal waters...and serve as a Focal Point/forcing mechanism
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Once this feature gets west of US on moisture axis will
reside over East Texas and perhaps into western la just east of
the Sabine River. Small chances generally areawide Tuesday and
Wednesday...becoming a little more restricted Thursday and Friday as the ridge
overhead builds a bit. The ridge begins to break down/flatten out on
Sat as an upper low lifts out from the western Continental U.S. Into the Central
Plains...with at least small areawide probability of precipitation returning.

High temperatures through the forecast period are expected to be near
seasonal normals...with lows running generally a few degrees above


high pressure to our east will maintain an onshore flow on the
coastal waters through the new week. Winds and seas will build
Monday into Tuesday as low pressure develops over the Southern
Plains and tightens the gradient over the northwestern Gulf...and
a weak easterly wave traverses the region. A Small Craft Advisory
may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Moderate southerly winds
expected to linger through the end of the period.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 82 59 81 64 / 20 10 20 20
lch 81 61 81 67 / 20 10 10 20
lft 82 60 80 65 / 20 10 30 20
bpt 83 64 81 68 / 20 10 10 20


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...



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