Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1144 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015
Aviation...radars and hrrr model are quiet tnite. Middle level ridge
should be building while light flow from the Gulf continues below
the inversion. This shallow marine layer could produce MVFR ceilings
for most locations with the possible exception of lch. Monday
evening both bpt and lch could see MVFR ceilings moving in.
Previous discussion... /issued 947 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
local 88ds show the afternoon convection has just about completely
died off with maybe a few lingering sprinkles noted over the
extreme eastern zones...and similar trends are noted in the upstream
convection as well. Inherited zones/pop grids have a good handle
on this. Elsewhere just minor tweaks at most...thus no update
planned at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 657 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
Aviation...high pressure is expected to build at middle levels while
a moist southerly flow continues. A low level inversion will set
up overnight with this shallow marine layer producing IFR ceilings below
2k feet at bpt and aex later tnite. VFR by middle-morning on Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
watching strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of central
Louisiana. This activity will be moving out of our forecast area
in the next hour or so. There could be some re-development through
the afternoon...but probability of precipitation will be trending down this evening.
A large ridge of middle to upper level high pressure will be the
dominant weather feature in our region this week. A dry day is
expected on Monday...and even beyond that...will only be carrying
20 percent probability of precipitation for dirunal driven thunderstorms each day through
next weekend. This is lower than climatology which is closer to 30
to 40 percent.
Temperatures will be in the low to middle 90s...and maximum heat indices
should be in the 100 to 105 range...a little below heat advisory
criteria...but hot enough that people outdoors need to follow good
heat safety rules.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 74 93 74 92 / 20 10 10 20
lch 77 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 20
lft 74 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 20
bpt 78 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 20