Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
705 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
for 00z taf issuance.
widespread convection across the northern 1/2 of the area is beginning
to wind down...however a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention was continued for the first
couple of hours at kaex to account. Thereafter minimal changes
were made to the inherited forecasts with mostly VFR conditions to
prevail (except at kaex like previous mornings). Best probability of precipitation carried
tomorrow afternoon at the 3 eastern sites where best moisture/lift are
Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
Discussion...at the surface the sub-tropical ridge remains in
place stretched from the Atlantic into the lower MS valley. This is
keeping a warm and very moist airmass in place with precipitable water values
running around 140 percent of normal. Aloft a weak ridge is
stretched from ts Dolly in the Bay of Campeche to the north central
Gulf Coast while a short wave is over the Southern Plains. Between
these two features upper divergence is occurring from southeast Texas across
cen la and central and north MS. This is allowing for scattered to
numerous showers and storms from roughly Houston to Vicksburg.
Most convection across our local area has been across southeast Texas and
cen la today and moving northward, however scattered showers and storms may
still occur through sunset just away from the coast as heating
remains strong and upper divergence is in place. Probability of precipitation will
decrease through the evening.
The forecast for the next several days looks nearly like a broken
record from day to day. A warm and moist airmass will remain in
place with precipitable waters around 2". A modest middle level ridge will also
remain over the area, however scattered diurnal convection can be
expected. High temperatures will be around normal with lows running a
couple degrees above normal as the south flow keeps temperatures from
cooling too much.
By the end of the weekend the pattern will change ever so slightly
as a weakening front drifts into the East Texas lakes and cen la and
stalls. Not much change is expected, however, as no real cooling
will occur and scattered storms are expected.
Marine...Tropical Storm Dolly will move into Mexico tonight,
however the pressure gradient between the storm and the ridge to
the east will keep southeast winds slightly elevated locally. This
onshore fetch will also keep tides slightly elevated for the next
couple of days. Winds and seas will decrease somewhat past
Wednesday. Winds will remain onshore through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 77 91 77 91 77 / 30 40 20 40 20
kbpt 78 91 78 92 77 / 30 40 20 30 20
kaex 74 93 74 93 74 / 30 30 20 40 20
klft 76 91 76 92 76 / 30 40 20 40 20
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