Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
627 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Aviation...scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected today
with periodic lower ceilings and visible likely. Kaex will
experience the lowest ceilings this morning, however conditions
will gradually improve. Winds will be light and vrb to start then
gradually become SW through the late morning and southeast by tonight.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 550 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Discussion...
latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery shows a
mean upper trough axis extending across the eastern Continental U.S....with an
upper ridge axis stretching from northern mx through the western High
Plains...and a vigorous upper low off the Pacific northwest. Within the mean
eastern Continental U.S. Trough...one shortwave was noted across the
arklamiss...with another more subtle feature over western KS/OK.
At the surface...weak and quasi-stationary frontal boundary extends
east to west along I-20 over northern la...then bends SW toward
Austin Texas. To the south...the Bermuda high ridges westward across Florida
into the central Gulf.
Radar had been relatively quiet for the first couple of hours
after midnight...with primarily isolated light to moderate
showers. Both intensity and to a lesser extent coverage have
increased since then...with most of the activity occurring
along/south of a Woodville to Bunkie line. A secondary area is
noted over coastal SW la in association with a northward retreating
outflow boundary.
It is difficult to get real specific on when and where rainfall
will occur given multiple mesoscale drivers...but generally
speaking...expect that convective coverage will be at something of
a maximum for the first half of today...as the initial and
stronger shortwave over the area slowly translates east and the
deeper moisture pool is also shunted east. Afternoon
destabilization and the approach of the second albeit weaker
feature will maintain good convective prospects through the
afternoon...however...and the difference in probability of precipitation from morning to
afternoon is a relatively minor 10 to 20 percent depending on your
location. High temperatures are expected to top out around
90...but could sway a few degrees above or below pending rainfall.
Isolated to scattered activity will likely persist through at
least this evening as the secondary pushes into the area...and
probability of precipitation may need to be extended into the overnight hours as well.
Middle/upper ridging is prognosticated to build over Texas for the end of this week
into early next week...but it looks like our region will get caught
between this ridge and a weakness/trough over the north central Gulf
Coast. Near normal temperatures and climatology probability of precipitation appear appropriate...and
the previous forecast had this generally well covered...so few changes
were made.
13
Marine...
a light southerly flow is expected to continue as the the Bermuda
high pressure system ridges westward through South Florida and
into the Gulf of Mexico.
13
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 89 75 91 75 91 / 50 20 30 10 30
kbpt 90 75 91 75 92 / 40 20 20 10 30
kaex 87 71 91 72 91 / 60 20 30 10 30
klft 89 74 90 74 91 / 50 30 30 10 30
&&
Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
