Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
636 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
for 12z taf issuance.
Aviation...VFR conditions should prevail for most of the day for
all sites. Main issue will be handling potential thunderstorm
activity for the day. In the near term...mesoscale convective system over NE Texas should
continue to weaken during the morning with only a few showers around
aex through middle morning. Coverage near aex will increase during the
afternoon with less activity over the southern airports. Activity
will slowly diminish during the evening hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 449 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
clouds moving in from the northwest this morning ahead of a weakening mesoscale convective system
over NE Texas. This mesoscale convective system is expected to continue to weaken through
the late morning hours. At this time we are remaining in the drier
air but this will begin to change as a surface low south of
dfw/ftw metropolitan-plex is expected to drift down into this region.
This low is expected to stall. In addition an upper level trough
will begin to swing in from the northwest... this will support thunderstorm
development today and into this evening. Storms today will produce
periods of heavy rains...cloud to ground lightning and gusty
winds. This will also keep US a few degrees cooler.
The potential for storm development will continue on Friday and into
the weekend as the surface and upper level low is expected to
meander around our region and will be the focus for moisture
convergence and lift. Not looking for at large rainfall totals...
generally one to two inches with isolated amounts around four to
five inches. Storms over the next several days will produce gusty
winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 89 74 87 73 90 / 30 40 50 40 40
kbpt 90 74 90 73 92 / 30 40 50 40 30
kaex 87 69 85 70 89 / 50 50 50 40 30
klft 89 73 87 73 89 / 30 30 50 40 40