Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1002 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
most inherited grids/zones look in good shape at this time as all earlier
convection has died off or moved out of the area. Primary change
was to throw in a patchy fog mention overnight as lingering low-
level moisture combines with reasonable radiating conditions prior
Update out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 705 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
Aviation...a fine finish to a rough start of the day as a weak
trough and trailing dry line stalled near Lufkin. A light gradient
with the moist axis in place will be a good Breeding ground for
fog tnite. Potential for vlifr late tnite at aex and lch, LIFR for
the remainder of the terminals. VFR by middle-morning Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
finally starting to get in between systems this afternoon as wave
passes. Still some showers and thunderstorms from the coastal
waters south of Cameron east across portions of the coastal
parishes and the coastal waters.
Still looks like the area will be under a ridge for Sunday as the
pattern re-loads and trough digs back in over The Rockies. This
should leave the area dry on Sunday with warm temperatures. Some
areas across the northern portions should see temperatures at or
near 90 degrees.
Some showers and possibly thunderstorms begin to return Sunday
evening and overnight as the upper low approaches and activity
develops in the warm air advection.
The area will likely see another round of severe weather on
Monday and possibly into Tuesday as the best dynamics with the
approaching upper low moves overhead. So one day of rest and we
will be back at it once again. Also good signal for heavy rain
event as well.
Dry air is forecast to punch into the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday...with cooler temperatures still forecast for the end of
the week. The trough is forecast to remain over the area in some
form a may be a few showers towards the end of the week.
a MDT southerly flow will continue through Monday with high pressure
east of the region and a series of low pressure systems developing west
of the area. An upper level disturbance moving through the region will
keep a chance for showers and storms today. Another disturbance will
move into the area on Monday...bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms. As this disturbance crosses the area...it will induce
surface low pressure over Texas. This low will then cross the coastal waters
Monday night...with a trailing cold front moving through on
Tuesday. Some of the storms with this system could be
strong...capable of producing gusty winds and frequent cloud to
water lightning. Once the front passes through the area...rain
chances will come to an end...with modt to strong northerly winds
developing possibly bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions to
the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 67 90 65 78 / 10 10 20 50
lch 70 85 70 81 / 10 10 20 60
lft 70 89 71 81 / 10 10 20 60
bpt 70 86 71 81 / 10 10 20 60