Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1247 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Discussion...
for 18z taf issuance.
&&
Aviation...
local 88ds show lingering convection in associated with passing
shortwave aloft and decaying frontal boundary over S-cntl
la...thus included thunder at klft/kara through 20z to account.
Expect this area of convection to eventually push eastward as the
shortwave departs the region. Otherwise VFR conditions should
eventually take over as drier air behind the front/shortwave takes
hold. Low-level moisture trapped below the nocturnal inversion may
be sufficient for some light fog/lower ceilings late tonight at
the southern sites...otherwise VFR will continue through the period.
25
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 942 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Discussion...a weakening frontal boundary has drifted into the
area during this morning with scattered storms. The boundary is expected
to become more diffuse and return north through the day, and with
the boundary around more showers and storms can be expected, but
mostly across the south and east half of the County Warning Area.
The previous forecast remains on target and no major changes are
needed at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 719 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Update...
did a quick clean up to the pop and weather grids. Convective activity
this morning is now confined to mainly south of I-10 and immediate
coastal waters...as prefrontal trough and convective outflow
boundary sags to the the south. Also...water vapor imagery showing
drier and more stable air moving into the forecast area. Held on
to slight to small chance probability of precipitation...as surface boundary will hang
around the area...and may help focus daytime heating activity.
Rua
Previous discussion... /issued 652 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Discussion...
22/12z taf issuance.
Aviation...
broken band of convection over southern portions of the area this
morning...and expected to affect kbpt...klch...klft and kara for
the next hour or two before pushing further south and diminishing.
Periodic MVFR ceilings at these sites this morning will lift to VFR by
midday. Otherwise...no precipitation expected at kaex with middle/high
clouds decreasing through the day. Variable winds early this morning
in the wake of convection will become more southerly late this morning
into this afternoon. For tonight...light winds and moist ground could
result in some patchy fog development after midnight. 24
Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Discussion...
an upper level trough from the Midwest down to East Texas will move
eastward and help push a weak surface cool frontal boundary
toward the forecast area today. Already showers and thunderstorms
have formed...mainly north of the I-10...between the pre-frontal
trough/convective outflow boundary and the surface front. Water
vapor shows a jet streak moving across...helping to provide
decent upper level divergence...which is giving a bit of an
enhancement to the storms. There could be some isolated strong to
marginal severe storms between now and dawn...with hail and
straight line down burst winds the main severe aspects.
Also...high moisture content and a bit of a training to the storms
could provide some locally heavy rain with street flooding
possible. And finally...frequent cloud to ground lightning will
also occur with the storms.
The upper level trough will gradually push east during the
day...with a more stable and slightly drier air moving in behind
it...with showers gradually decreasing from west to east by late
morning to afternoon.
Surface frontal system will linger across the forecast area on
Thursday and Friday...that will combine with Gulf moisture and
daytime heating to provide a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.
Upper level ridging is then expected to build in over the Holiday
weekend. This should end any rain chances.
Rua
Marine...
a surface frontal boundary is expected to stall north of the
coastal waters over the next couple of days. Meanwhile...high
pressure is expected to ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico
from the east. The result should be mainly light onshore winds.
Rua
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 86 71 87 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
kbpt 87 72 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 20
kaex 87 68 90 70 88 / 30 10 20 10 20
klft 87 71 89 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
