Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
738 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
Update...a more moist airmass continues to lift north across the
area late this afternoon ahead of a weak frontal low that is in
the vicinity of Lufkin. A line of thunderstorms have developed from
near the low and back along the trailing weakening cold front. The
line of storms will gradually move into the the County Warning Area through the
the evening while slowing. This may produce the treat flooding
from heavy rain from west central la through southeast Texas inland from
the coast. Probability of precipitation have bumped up for the overnight period and into
Friday as the system moves in and weakens.
Previous discussion... /issued 624 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
for the 01/00z taf issuance.
some showers and thunderstorms are moving southeast out of East
Texas and northwest Louisiana toward the forecast area. Most of
this activity should weaken somewhat during the early evening
hours and slow down...remaining west of taf sites.
Therefore...will place a vcsh at kaex during the evening hours for
a few of the light showers reaching that taf site...with just VFR
elsewhere. Activity should re-form overnight near a front boundary
and frontal wave over East Texas. This activity will move eastward
on Friday. Will place pro30 for showers and thunderstorms at
kaex/kbpt/klch beginning in the morning hours...then at klft/kara
in the afternoon to account for this.
Previous discussion... /issued 413 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
synopsis...a slow moving frontal wave will approach from East
Texas. Rain chances will increase and become likely tonight and
Friday as the surface low moves over the area.
Short term...warmer temperatures overnight as cloud cover increases as
well as the flow off the Gulf. Short wave energy and upper
divergence should enhance our rain chances through Friday night.
Long term...the frontal boundary is still expected to remain
parked off the coast with multiple waves as the supporting upper
level trough becomes parked over the Mississippi Valley. This
scenario morphs into weakness in the upper ridge early next week,
maintaining rain chances through the middle of next week. A
Bermuda ridge is prognosticated to build in late next week with rain
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 75 88 73 86 73 / 50 50 40 30 30
kbpt 75 89 73 86 74 / 60 50 40 20 30
kaex 71 85 69 87 70 / 70 50 20 30 30
klft 74 87 76 87 73 / 40 60 20 30 30
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