Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1057 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

for the 06z taf package.


no changes from 00z forecast. VFR with generally light northeast



Previous discussion... /issued 831 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/

cold front continuing south across the coastal waters this
evening. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain formed along the frontal passage late this afternoon
when it approached the coast...and continues this evening...with
the area of main concentration remaining along the frontal passage as it
moves S this evening. Made minor adjustments to pop forecast
across the coastal waters...mainly for timing and alignment along
the front. Scec will continue as north to NE winds 15-20 kts continue
overnight behind the front. precipitation expected as cooler and much drier air (dewpts
in the upper 50s to lower 60s) filters across the region.
Inherited lows in the upper 50s inland southeast Texas/c la to lower 60s
looks good under clear skies...and what better way to welcome the
autumnal equinox at 9:29 PM this evening.


Previous discussion... /issued 709 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/

for the 00z taf package.

VFR to prevail with light north to northeast winds behind a
departing cold front.


Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/

Discussion...a cold front has pushed to around the I-10 corridor
this afternoon and a few showers are noted ahead of the boundary.
Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass is filtering in. Low
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be 5 to around 10 degrees less
than this past morning's lows with afternoon highs mostly in the middle
80s. The frontal boundary will gradually stall across the northern
Gulf keeping shower chances across the coastal waters and
southward into early Friday. By the end of the week a disturbance
aloft will move into the Southern Plains allowing low pressure to
develop along the stalled frontal boundary in the northern Gulf.
The frontal wave is expected to move northeast into the northern
Gulf Coast during the weekend. There are uncertainties regarding
where this low will track and how much precipitation will spread across
the County Warning Area. At this time higher rain chances can be expected across
the southeast half of the County Warning Area with lower chances toward the East Texas lake
region. This will also affect the high temperature forecast for the weekend
and could easily push highs down several degrees if rain chances
become higher with the frontal low farther west than currently

Marine...a moderate offshore flow will occur tonight behind a
cold front. Small craft should exercise caution through Tuesday
morning in the Gulf waters. A light to moderate east flow will
then continue through the week with winds possible increasing
somewhat again during the coming weekend as low pressure forms
along the stalled frontal boundary and moves close to area.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 63 85 62 86 / 10 0 0 0
kbpt 64 85 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
kaex 58 83 57 86 / 10 0 0 0
klft 61 85 62 87 / 10 0 10 10


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...small craft exercise caution through Tuesday afternoon for
waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron la from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Cameron la to High Island Texas from 20 to 60
nm-waters from lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
la from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft exercise caution until 9 am CDT Tuesday for coastal
waters from Cameron la to High Island Texas out 20 nm-coastal
waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron la out 20 nm-
coastal waters from lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal
City la out 20 nm.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations