Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
734 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015
for 00z taf issuance.
surface observation/satellite imagery show all low clouds remaining east of
the Atchafalaya at this time...while cirrus ahead of northern Mexico shortwave
approaches the region. Forecast soundings show dry conditions
persisting through most of the column which will maintain VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will decouple shortly then
increase again after sunrise Sunday thanks to a lingering decent
pressure gradient thanks to southern Atlantic coast low as well as some
stronger flow aloft mixing down.
Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015/
Discussion...a surface ridge continues to extend from Canada to
the north central Gulf Coast this afternoon while a ridge aloft
also remains in place. Strato cumulus is wrapping around the system
over the southeast states covering most of southeast la and eastward with some
cloud cover working into Acadiana. Sunny skies are noted elsewhere
with temperatures generally in the middle 70s to near 80. The ridge at the
surface and aloft will remain over the region through middle week
keeping the area dry, however temperatures will gradually warm
back to around climatology averages by Monday and then slightly over by
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Late in the coming week into next weekend the models diverge
somewhat on the upper low placement and eventual solution,
however an upper level low is expected to move from the 4 corners
region to Texas or north Mexico while the surface ridge shifts east
of the area. This will increase moisture levels and potentially rain
chances Friday into the weekend.
Marine...a moderate off shore flow will continue through tonight
in the coastal Gulf waters. Winds will decrease farther Sunday
with a light offshore flow continuing into Wednesday. The surface
ridge will shift east of the area by middle week with an onshore flow
expected from middle week into the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 52 78 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
lch 57 78 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
lft 56 78 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
bpt 58 79 62 83 / 0 0 0 0