Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
933 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015
Update...showers earlier this evening over south central
Louisiana have either weakened or shifted east of the area. Winds
are near calm almost everywhere. May do a few temperature tweaks
for lows tonight...otherwise no significant updates.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015/
middle-afternoon surface analysis shows our meandering frontal boundary
just east of the Atchafalaya basin...with otherwise high pressure
providing a drier nearly low-level flow over the forecast area.
Water vapor imagery shows the middle/upper-level trough axis also just
to our east...providing a dry nearly flow aloft. Combo of all this
has just been some fair weather cumulus and little on radar this
afternoon with only isolated to widely scattered convection
developing along the sea breeze over mainly lower Acadiana.
Not many changes to the inherited grids/zones this afternoon. Much
of the coming week looks dry as atmospheric moisture is prognosticated to
run a good bit lower than it has of late...along with a lack of
good focus mechanisms passing aloft. Cannot rule out a stray
shower or storm near the coast over the next couple of days with
afternoon sea breeze development...but have kept precipitation mention
out of the forecasts for now as coverage just doesn't look high
enough to warrant a mention. As the ridge aloft nudges eastward expect
daytime temperatures to climb slowly as well...with highs around 90 for
much of the forecast area for late in the week.
By the weekend the ridge is prognosticated to slip back westward a bit...
allowing weak disturbances to begin encroaching the region. Best
shot at rain for this forecast period looks to be Sunday as the
first of these impulses crosses...while the sea breeze adds a
little extra punch.
not much wind on the coastal waters through the period with high
pressure remaining in control.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 85 65 87 66 / 10 10 10 0
lch 87 67 89 69 / 20 10 10 0
lft 87 69 88 69 / 20 10 10 10
bpt 87 67 89 69 / 10 10 10 0