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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1206 am CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014
24/06z taf issuance.
satellite imagery late this evening shows a few low clouds
beginning to stream in off the Gulf while veil of cirrus moves in
from the west. Observation sites continue to show p6sm visbys. Adjusted
visby forecast for tonight as strengthening low level jet and increasing
clouds across southeast Texas will limit fog development at bpt and lch.
Further east...fog still could be an issue due to lighter wind
field/less cloud cover and latest hrrr visby forecasts also reflect
this. With this in mind...kept VFR conditions at bpt...prevailing
VFR/tempo MVFR at lch with prevailing MVFR/tempo IFR at eastern sites.
Fog expected to lift to MVFR ceilings by 14z-15z...then becoming VFR
by 18z with southerly winds 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots during the
afternoon. Winds will diminish slightly during the evening as a weak
front approaches the area...with low ceilings returning. 24
Previous discussion... /issued 953 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014/
high pressure over the northern Gulf is allowing for moisture to
move inland over southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this
evening. Another beautiful day today saw temperatures climb into
the 80s under sunny skies after the fog burned off this morning.
The front that was to our south has moved back northward and
extends from southeast Oklahoma into south-central Mississippi
Models are hinting at more fog on tap tonight with some areas
falling below one mile towards sunrise. Temperatures expected to range
from the middle to upper 60s at the coast to near 60 across the lakes
region of southwest Texas and central Louisiana. Another front
looks to approach from the northwest by early Friday morning
before stalling over the coastal waters. Not looking for any real
chance at precipitation and temperatures will not show much variation...but
drier air will set in for Friday. The high pressure will move
quickly off to the east with return flow on Saturday morning.
Return moisture will move up from deep south Texas and into
eastern Texas by early Sunday morning. This will establish a
deeper moisture profile with the chance for some showers Sunday
afternoon/evening time-frame. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue into Monday as another front this time
stronger will push through the region. Temperatures will cool on
Tuesday with Wednesday morning seeing temperatures staring out in the low
50s central Louisiana with middle 50s down along the I-10 corridor.
Previous discussion... /issued 645 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014/
23/00z taf issuance.
afternoon cumulus field beginning to dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating...with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the
evening. Southerly winds continue to usher plenty of low level moisture
into the region. Winds will lighten during the evening with fog
expected to develop by midnight. The onset of fog looks more
likely at the eastern terminals tonight with low level winds
strengthening to the west resulting in more of a low ceiling at kbpt
although occasional periods of fog cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise...few changes to remainder of forecast with fog/ceilings lifting
Thursday morning and southerly winds strengthening...becoming gusty during
the afternoon as the next weak front approaches the area. 24
Previous discussion... /issued 421 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014/
Discussion...pleasant afternoon across the forecast area.
Temperatures generally running in the low 80s and humidity levels
on the low side with dewpoints ranging from the middle 50s into the
lower 60s. Satellite imagery depicting scattered cumulus across the
region. Some enhancement of the cumulus noted from lower Acadiana west
northwest into interior southeast Texas. This marking the
retreating frontal boundary.
A fairly quiet weather pattern ahead for the remainder of the
week. Temperatures anticipated to generally remain a few degrees
above the norm as a deepening southerly flow becomes established.
Steady onshore flow will provide a daily chance of night-time
advection fog development. Boundary layer winds may just be high
enough for stratus rather than fog but too close of a call at
this time. Carrying patchy fog tonight.
Next middle/upper level trough advancing through the central Continental U.S. Will
swing an accompanying weak surface trough across the forecast area
late Thursday night. Have maintained low end probability of precipitation for Thursday
afternoon and evening with features over central Louisiana into
interior southeast Texas. Moisture/lift at this time appears to
limited for mentionable probability of precipitation further South. Passage will bring
northing more than a very brief and limited lowering of dewpoints.
Vigorous system developing and advancing through the plains will
swing another cold front through the area Monday. Rain chances
increase Sunday and Monday.
Marine...an onshore flow will return today as high pressure becomes
reestablished in the wake of a warm front advancing inland from
the northwest Gulf. Winds will strengthen and seas build through
the weekend in advance of our next frontal passage expected late
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 62 81 64 82 / 0 10 20 10
kbpt 64 80 65 81 / 0 10 10 10
kaex 60 84 63 83 / 0 20 20 10
klft 64 81 65 82 / 0 10 10 10