Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1214 PM CST Friday Dec 13 2013
cloudy skies with ceilings varying ahead of a cold front that is
expected to move through Saturday morning. Ceilings and visibility will
fall through the evening and into the overnight hours. MVFR most
sites going IFR by the late evening hours becoming LIFR towards
Previous discussion... /issued 1105 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013/
cloudy and cool conditions across the region this morning...with
regional radar mosaic showing an area of showers and rain
crossing NE and East Texas. Most of this activity is expected to pass
north of the area...although a few showers will be possible across
our interior southeast Texas zones through early afternoon then steadily
increase through late aftn/evening. Widespread clouds will limit
a significant warmup today...but winds gradually shifting more
southeasterly as the surface high across Georgia/SC moves east will allow for a
modest warming trend. As a result...could see high temperatures a few
degrees warmer than yesterday although did adjust high temperatures across
Acadiana down a few degrees. Otherwise...forecast is on track for
Previous discussion... /issued 624 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013/
Pressures are falling across western Kansas...announcing the
evolution of a leeside low. Further up...a difluent trough...
embedded in the southern stream of the midlatitude westerlies...is
propagating eastward through West Texas.
Advecting Pacific clouds (associated with the difluent trough) will
make their way eastward through southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana this morning. VFR ceilings are expected.
During the afternoon...southerly winds will increase across the
western upper Gulf Coast states...in response to continued falling
pressures across Kansas. Advecting Gulf clouds (mvfr ceilings) are
In summary...a multi-layered cloud deck will prevail throughout
the western upper Gulf Coast states...Gulf and Pacific clouds.
An approaching Southern Plains cold front...trailing the leeside
low...will bring about showers (and a few thunderstorms) tonight.
The convective rain will will move into southeast Texas this
evening...before entering Louisiana just after midnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013/
Discussion...satellite imagery showing considerable cirrus
overspreading the forecast area early this morning. This in
advance of our next potential weather maker on an eastward track
and now positioned over northeast Arizona. Rapid influx of deep
layer moisture prognosticated similarly by models through the overnight
hours as shortwave approaches. Models continue to suggest precipitable
water values climbing well over 1.5 inches...this closing in on
two Standard deviations above the norm. Due to rapid development
and short-lived moisture feed...will not have time to destabilize
significantly so maintaining likely to categorical showers...but no
thunder...no severe despite respectable wind fields. Attendant
cold front sweeps though early Saturday with diminishing rain
chances through the day.
Will be returning to cooler temperatures to start the new
week...then a gradual but steady upward trend through the week.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) very much together holding off on our next frontal
passage until Saturday.
Marine...a light to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue
into tonight. A cold front with showers will rapidly advance
across the northwest Gulf early Saturday...with rain chances
then diminishing...but a moderate to strong northerly flow
gradually developing in its wake. Winds will lessen for the latter
part of the weekend...coming back around to onshore toward mid-week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 60 60 64 41 51 / 30 70 30 10 10
kbpt 60 59 64 39 51 / 30 70 30 10 10
kaex 60 53 61 36 47 / 40 80 30 10 10
klft 60 60 66 41 49 / 20 70 40 10 10