Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
352 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015
this afternoon analysis indicates sharp trough out west in the
process of cutting off. Surface pressures are falling in response
across Texas as well. Strong jet situated across south Texas into
the northern Gulf has kept clouds a little more thick than
expected this afternoon along with a few sprinkles inland and
some showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore. This in turn has
kept temperatures from achieving previous forecast highs.
Could see some showers and thunderstorms develop over the area
tonight as moisture advection begins over the stable surface
layer. Shear parameters would also indicate a potential for a
severe storm as well. At the same time...activity over Texas is
forecast to congeal into a robust cluster of storms and March
east through the day Monday as great upper level support is
forecast to maintain the complex. Given the favorable
kinematics...severe storms are also possible over the entire area.
Heavy rainfall is also a concern on Monday...not real sure how far
north to take the heavy rain with guidance differences on how it
will evolve. Still several inches of rain are possible in a short
period of time Monday. As a result will issue an flash Flood Advisory for much of
the area where we are forecasting 1-3 inches of rain with isolated
6. At this time will leave out the northwest third of the
area...but these may have to be added as we see how things evolve
Another complex of storms is forecast to develop Monday afternoon
and evening and move east southeast into the area. This also has
the potential to produce some heavy rains as well. Then question
becomes will dry slot on Tuesday shut things down early or will
there be development in the afternoon again. Guidance is
mixed...but definitely think the areal coverage will be lower.
After Tuesday nice cold front for this time of year with cooler
than normal temperatures for middle week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 66 74 59 65 / 40 70 70 40
lch 71 80 65 71 / 20 80 60 20
lft 70 79 67 73 / 20 70 60 40
bpt 72 81 65 72 / 30 80 50 20
la...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for