Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1046 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015
most shower and thunderstorm activity has remained limited to the
coastal waters this morning. 12z upper air sounding indicates slightly
less moisture in the column compared to the past several days.
Based on current satellite/radar/short term guidance
trends...adjusted pop and quantitative precipitation forecast grids to reflect highest chances for
precipitation over the coastal waters and south of the i10 corridor. Areas
further inland will have slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms.
Also made minor adjustments to increase maximum temperatures over southeast Texas due to
less cloud cover over the region.
Previous discussion... /issued 612 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/
Aviation...troffing extending along the Texas coast then north to
northeast will maintain considerable middle and upper level
cloudiness across the forecast area today. Additionally...a few
showers will be possible inland...but the bulk of todays
convection is expected to remain over the coastal waters. Radar
currently showing just some patchy stratiform rain across the
immediate area...with more significant showers and thunderstorms
near Galveston associated with a low aloft. This feature is
prognosticated to settle south through the day while weakening.
Previous discussion... /issued 539 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/
cloudy with areas of rain and showers moving across southeast
Texas and southern Louisiana this morning. Temperatures are
holding in the low to middle 70s. The upper level low that dropped
into south Texas over the weekend is now along the Upper Texas
coast near Galveston. This feature is expected to remain in place
over the next several days... last night sounding "lch" indicated
precipitation around 2.08 inches.
The upper level low is expected to migrate back to the west before
getting absorbed in the flow but additional support will be in
the region and the chances of rains will continue into the
weekend. This will also moderate the afternoon temperatures which
is a welcome relief from temperatures at the beginning of last
month. In addition the loss of daylight will also start to show
itself in the temperature field. Anyway we have moved back into a
wet period that will continue into next week. For those looking
for another cold front... that looks to be on tap late next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 92 70 94 73 / 30 20 30 20
lch 89 73 88 75 / 30 20 40 20
lft 89 74 91 75 / 40 20 40 20
bpt 87 73 87 75 / 50 30 40 20