Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1045 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014
latest surface analysis shows weak pressure gradient yielding weak east
to southeast flow over the region. Radar showing isolated rain showers over the
coastal waters this morning. Isolated rain showers and perheaps a thunderstorms and rain expected
inland with afternoon heating up in the middle/upper 80s along with
increasing moisture as the winds become more southeast. Inherited
forecast mainly on track with this...with 20% chance of precipitation
expected this afternoon. Remainder of forecast on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 634 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014/
Aviation...patchy fog and stratus are causing MVFR or lower
conditions at a few terminals this morning, however as the sun
rises conditions will improve. Mostly VFR conditions are then
expected through the rest of the day and evening. A few showers or
possibly a thunderstorms and rain will be possible around klft and kara and thin patchy
fog may be a concern again Wednesday morning. Winds will be light and
become southeast during the morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 517 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014/
no too many changes to the forecast this morning. Patchy and
somewhat transient fog noted on area observation this morning...especially
across south central Louisiana. Have left out of the grids for the
time being...but will continue to monitor obs/trends. Convective
coverage...which was isolated at best yesterday...should be even
less today as shortwave ridging over Texas glides east across the
region. Deepening southerly flow and the resultant returning
moisture in the wake of the ridge and ahead of an approaching
upper trough will yield better chances Wednesday and Thursday. This
activity...perhaps initially as nocturnal shower activity over the
Gulf waters and adjacent coastal areas...will otherwise be
primarily diurnal/sea-breeze driven. Temperatures are expected to
be near or above seasonal normals...with highs in the middle/upper
80s and lows in the lower 70s.
Cold front still prognosticated to cross the area Thursday night into early
Friday...which represents the best precipitation chances of the forecast. Risk of
severe per day 3 convective outlook is minimal...with better
probabilities farther north toward the arklatex and points north. Much
drier and cooler air is prognosticated to filter into the region in the
wake of the front...with Sat/Sat night expected to be coolest
period...as highs look to struggle to reach 80 and lows Sat night
fall into the 50s away from the coast.
The models diverge a bit heading into early next week...with the
GFS pointing toward returning rain chances...while the European model (ecmwf) keeps
US dry. Continued to lean toward the latter for this forecast.
light east winds will become southerly today as low pressure
develops over the western High Plains. A cold front is forecast
to move through the coastal waters on Friday...with offshore flow
prevailing into the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 87 74 86 74 86 / 20 20 30 20 40
kbpt 87 75 86 76 86 / 20 20 30 20 40
kaex 88 70 88 72 86 / 20 10 30 20 40
klft 88 73 86 74 86 / 20 20 40 20 50