Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
355 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
Discussion...a weak cold front has stalled in the northern Gulf
or just at the outer edge of the County Warning Area over the past evening. Not
much cool air to work with behind the boundary, however with the
dry air mass temperatures have managed to fall into the upper 60s at a
few locations this morning, however most areas are still in the
low to middle 70s. Lower dew points are the most noticeable aspect
of the frontal passage with readings in the middle to upper 60s. With lower dew points
and the strong Summer sun temperatures will climb into the middle to upper
90s at most locations this afternoon and a few spots may hit 100.
This is only one or two degrees warmer than Friday afternoon. As
temperatures rise dew points will fall into the the 50s and 40s may not
be out of the question as suggested by some hi-res models. This
will leave the area with very low relative humidity values this afternoon...
generally in the 20s, however if dew points fall into the 40s the rhs may
fall into the teens. After sunset today temperatures will fall back into
the low 70s to upper 60s for Sunday morning.
Moisture will begin to increase once again from Sunday afternoon
into Monday as the weak frontal boundary returns north. By late
Sunday an isolated storm or two may be possible in lower Acadiana as
the boundary bumps into the coast. The southerly flow will return
Monday with dew points returning to the typical muggy 70s
everywhere by late afternoon/early evening.
Tuesday through the rest of the period the upper level ridge will
remain centered well to the west with our region remaining on the
east edge. This will keep high temperatures a little above normal and
with probability of precipitation higher along the Atchafalaya basin with lesser chances
in southeast Texas.
Marine...a weak boundary will remain stalled over the northern
Gulf through today. This weak boundary will slowly drift north
Sunday and push onshore Sunday night into Monday morning. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the boundary. A
ridge of high pressure will rebuild into the area from the east
early next week and remain in place through Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 96 68 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
lch 98 71 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
lft 98 74 98 77 / 0 0 10 10
bpt 99 72 97 76 / 0 0 10 0