Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
926 am CST sun Nov 29 2015
Update...main forecast issue will be low clouds and fog as many
areas are at or below a quarter mile. Expect visibilities to remain
low during the morning hours and improve some during the afternoon.
Dense fog may linger over the coastal waters into the afternoon.
Will lower probability of precipitation this morning over East Texas and central Louisiana.
Will lower maximum temperatures across western parts of forecast area as
Previous discussion... /issued 427 am CST sun Nov 29 2015/
nearly stationary cold front analyzed this morning extending from
east of Monroe southwest across the state bisecting the County Warning Area from
roughly Alexandria to just west of Lake Charles. Behind the front
temperatures are running from 10-15 degrees cooler but with plenty
of moisture left in place fog has developed on both sides of the
front and continues to thicken with each passing hour. This has
the potential to be problematic because the front is yielding an
isentropically lifted stratus deck just a few hundred feet off
the ground that is likely going to inhibit fog dissipation today.
Most areas will eventually see the fog lift just off the surface
especially where showers develop (which will be mostly across the
Piney Woods regions of southeast tx) but patchy fog will likely linger
throughout the day in some locations. Another round of fog
expected to descend upon the region tonight as conditions will be
largely unchanged. Latest guidance also indicates stubborn sea fog
developing from the coast out roughly 20 miles which could
realistically remain in place through tomorrow morning.
The aforementioned cold front isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
It may ooze a bit further east this morning perhaps reaching as
far as Lafayette before actually retrograding a bit tonight and
into Monday. The lingering front combined with the moist airmass
will allow for overrunning showers to develop along and behind
the front today through Wednesday. Upper level ridging across
south central Louisiana should keep shower activity at a minimum
although a few light showers cannot be ruled out.
Rather large upper level low currently centered over Nevada and
Utah will eject northeast Tuesday and swing another cold front
through the area Wednesday finally clearing out this mess.
The second half of the week will be very fall like with afternoon
highs in the lower 60's and overnight lows in the low to middle 40's.
a cold front will stall across the area today bisecting the
coastal waters between Cameron and Intracoastal City. Weak
onshore flow can be expected ahead of the front with weak offshore
flow behind it. Patchy dense fog will develop in the vicinity of
the frontal boundary and could persist through Monday morning.
Light showers will also be possible along and west of the front. A
second front will move through Wednesday improving visibilities
and bringing stronger offshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 65 58 69 56 / 60 40 50 50
lch 72 63 73 59 / 40 30 30 30
lft 76 63 75 62 / 30 20 20 30
bpt 68 60 69 58 / 40 30 40 30
la...dense fog advisory until noon CST today for laz027-028-030>032-
Texas...dense fog advisory until noon CST today for txz215-216.
GM...dense fog advisory until noon CST today for gmz430-432-450-452-