Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1146 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
Aviation...added some mention of few cumulus for bpt and lch during
the day on Wednesday otherwise ceiling and visibility OK with a dry and light NE flow
from large scale ridging down the Mississippi Valley. There is a
slight chance for patchy ground fog in a few hours as a couple of isolated
locations are reporting but not so much to mention in the tafs at
Previous discussion... /issued 947 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
another pleasant late October evening ongoing across the forecast
area at this time. High pressure centered over the middle-south maintaining a
cool and light nerly flow with dewpoints down to the upper
50s/lower 60s. Regional 00z soundings show plenty of dry air in
place which is corroborated on satellite imagery with only a
little cirrus noted mainly to our west with an approaching
shortwave aloft. All in all inherited grids/zones look in fine
shape as is based on latest observation/trends so no update is planned
with nearly flow expected to increase through tonight and into
Wednesday as the gradient tightens in response to low pressure
over the far southern Gulf...the caution headlines have been extended
through the morning hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 645 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
Discussion...high pressure ridging in from Quebec through the Great
Lakes and the Mississippi Valley will continue to feed a light and dry
northeast flow through the terminals. Ceiling and visibility OK.
Previous discussion... /issued 203 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
A cool dome of high pressure near Texarkana...will rebuild southwest
into central Texas on Thursday...where its temporarily stalls.
The dome will move little through Saturday...before beginning its
travels eastward across Louisiana on Sunday.
Further up...a Pacific shortwave will travel eastward across
Louisiana on Thursday.
Light northeasterly winds will persist tonight...keeping the
nocturnal layer somewhat mixed. The overnight minimums will be
running a couple of degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
For Wednesday...the daytime temperatures will be running slight
above normal...under mostly sunny skies. The afternoon humidities
will be running slightly below normal.
A traveling Pacific shortwave will transport patchy cirrus across
the forecast area. These semi-transparent clouds may partially
obscure the solar eclipse by late Thursday afternoon. However...
an impressive sunset is expected.
The actual tides will be running about a half-foot above the tide
table values for the next couple of days.
The New Beaver moon will occur this Thursday...bringing about
large changes-in-water elevation at the coast. About 2 feet will
separate the lower low tide (occurring early to middle morning) from
the higher high tide (occurring early to midafternoon).
The traveling dome of high pressure will continue its journey
eastward. A weak return flow will set-up across the western upper
Gulf Coast states on Monday.
A Great Plains cold front will travel southeast through the western
upper Gulf Coast states during the overnight hours on Tuesday.
Scattered pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 59 81 56 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
kbpt 61 81 57 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
kaex 56 80 50 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
klft 58 81 54 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...small craft exercise caution until 10 am CDT Wednesday for the
following zones: waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron
la from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Cameron la to High Island
Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River
to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm.
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