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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
829 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

Update...rain chances will increase later tnite as a short wave
near Matagorda Bay heads east. Showers have already broken out
around Galveston Bay in response. Tweaked temperatures up a tad due to
increasing clouds.



Previous discussion... /issued 308 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014/

current surface analysis shows weak pressure gradient yielding weak southeast
flow over the region. Radar continues to show isolated rain showers diminished
over the coastal waters...with a few rain showers beginning to pop up
over southeast Texas. For now...20% still looks reasonable for the remainder
of the afternoon...with not much activity expected after sunset.
A taste of late Summer has returned...with temperatures this afternoon in
the upper 80s to near 90...with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Morning
lows Wednesday expected in the Lower/Middle 70s.

As the flow aloft begins to become more SW...intermittent disturbances
will bring chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain through Thursday. The next disturbance
expected to bring increased chances over the coastal waters after
midnight...and across southeast Texas/c and S la during the daylight hours
Wednesday...and again Thursday. Temperatures in the middle/upper 80s for highs...and
low/middle 70s for low will continue through this period.

By Thursday afternoon into Friday morning...chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected
to increase significantly ahead and along the strong cold front...which
is expected to move through during the morning hours. Some over-
running moisture Post frontal passage lingering into Friday afternoon...but
should be ending from northwest to southeast as the cooler and drier air filters
across the region. With the upper air pattern showing a deep layer
trough over the central and eastern U.S. We should see the coolest
temperatures so far this early fall season. Expecting lows in the
middle/upper 50s to near 60 for Sat & sun mornings. Highs in the
middle/upper 70s.

By Monday & Tuesday...slow warming trend expected to commence...but no
precipitation expected as we remain with a predominately dry northwest flow


southeast to S winds 5-10 kts expected through early Thursday with seas 1-2 feet.
Winds expected to pick up later Thursday 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 feet as
the pressure gradient increases with the deepening low pressure
across the plains. The cold front expected to pass through Friday
morning...with offshore flow near 20 kts expected by Friday night/Sat



Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 76 85 75 87 73 / 30 40 20 40 60
kbpt 75 86 76 85 72 / 30 30 20 40 60
kaex 71 87 72 87 70 / 20 50 20 40 60
klft 76 85 74 86 73 / 30 50 20 50 60


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...

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