Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
643 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
Aviation...a weak tropical wave over the northwestern Gulf south
of Cameron Louisiana is expected to push west into the Texas
coastal area later today. This will bring abundant moisture as
well as MVFR showers and thunderstorms mainly during the
afternoon to the southern terminals along and south of I-10. Vcsh
will linger tnite around bpt and lch where substantial moisture
Previous discussion... /issued 403 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
A cool dome of high pressure across Missouri ridges southward...its
outer periphery marked by a stationary front (which extends from
Brownsville through The Straits of florida).
A salient easterly wave (or inverted trough) is found within the
baroclinic zone of the stationary front
GFS model depicts this westward-moving wave landfalling near
Brownsville by early morning Thursday.
A warm anticyclone is found vicinity the midpoint of the Gulf of
Mexico near marine point 25n 92w.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today...mainly
along and south of the I-10 corridor.
A 200-mb southwesterly jetstreak (tropopause fold) Marks the outer
northwest periphery of the warm anticyclone...coring through Houston
through Alexandria. Consequently...some showers and thunderstorms
could be on the strong side.
Over the next couple of days...the stationary front will undulate
poleward as weaker easterly waves travel through its baroclinic zone.
The drifting front will reach a Palacios to Tampa line by Friday...
before moving onshore the Louisiana coast by Saturday.
Consequently...scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist
.Becoming more numerous on Saturday.
The Bermuda high pressure system will re-established itself across
the western upper Gulf Coast states on Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 90 76 90 76 89 / 50 20 40 30 30
kbpt 89 77 88 77 87 / 50 30 50 40 30
kaex 93 73 91 74 90 / 20 20 40 30 30
klft 90 75 90 76 90 / 40 20 40 30 30
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron
la from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Cameron la to High Island
Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River
to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm.
Small craft exercise caution until 6 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: coastal waters from Cameron la to High
Island Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Intracoastal City
to Cameron la out 20 nm...coastal waters from lower
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la out 20 nm.
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