Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
525 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
for the 11/00z taf issuance.
only some middle and high level clouds are expected to move across in
the southwest flow aloft late tonight and Wednesday...keeping VFR
conditions in place. Surface winds are expected to shift from
northeast to north by Wednesday afternoon as a reinforcing cold
front moves through the forecast area.
Previous discussion... /issued 358 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
Synopsis...high pressure is building into the area from the
northwest bringing diminishing winds, continued clear skies, and
good conditions for radiational cooling. Another reinforcing shot
of cooler air on Wednesday as a dry Canadian cold front moves through.
Rain chances ramp up on Friday and become likely by Saturday as an
upper trough digs out of the southern rockies and brings a Pacific
cold front through on Saturday. Northwesterly flow continues aloft
following this system into next week, maintaining our colder than normal
Short term...a light freeze will be possible across the northern
zones as winds diminish. The reinforcing shot of cold advection on
Wednesday keep temperatures much colder than normal with another
light freeze across the northern tier. High temperatures will remain more
than 10 degrees below seasonal norms into Thursday with a persistent
temperature inversion producing poor mixing in the fire weather world.
Long term...timing looks good on the next Pacific system Friday
into Saturday so stayed with the likely probability of precipitation over the northeastern zones.
Some thunder will also be possible per upper divergent fields. We
stay in a northerly wind regime next week with continued colder
than normal temperatures with the long wave trough over North America.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 36 53 35 52 39 / 0 10 0 10 10
kbpt 37 54 35 53 40 / 0 10 0 10 10
kaex 30 50 29 50 34 / 0 10 0 10 10
klft 34 54 33 51 37 / 0 10 0 10 10
GM...small craft exercise caution until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: coastal waters from Cameron la to High
Island Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Intracoastal City
to Cameron la out 20 nm...coastal waters from lower
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la out 20 nm...
waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron la from 20 to 60
nm...waters from Cameron la to High Island Texas from 20 to 60
nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal
City la from 20 to 60 nm.