Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1106 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Aviation...moisture will remain confined to the lower levels
today as a strong and gusty southerly flow continues. Radar
currently showing just a few showers over the near coastal waters.
Will maintain vcsh at all terminals this afternoon and evening.
Considerable cloudiness can be expected...mainly with high end
MVFR or into VFR through this afternoon. Ceilings within MVFR
expected to settle in this evening as inland temperatures cool.
Previous discussion... /issued 953 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
forecast area will continue to be under a warm and moist east to
southeast flow for this Holiday. Latest upper air sounding from
klch shows precipitable water values up to near 1.5 inches...with moisture depth
up to 10k feet. Therefore...will see spotty showers develop over
the Gulf in the low level jet and move inland during the day.
Current forecast is on track and no significant changes to the
grids at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 732 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
for 12z taf issuance.
mostly no significant changes to previous taf thinking. One change
was the addition of vcsh to kbpt/klch first couple of hours due to
ongoing late night streamer activity developing along a low-level
convergence zone over the western portions of the forecast area.
Thereafter the main story will be some lower ceilings later this
morning per copious low-level moisture noted in forecast soundings...
and strong srly winds through the day thanks to a tight gradient
in place. A few showers are possible with heating this afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 300 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
a warm night as southerly flow continues to bring in Gulf moisture
into the region. Temperatures were mainly in the middle 60s with
solid cloud cover across most of the County Warning Area with the
exception of parts of southeast Texas.
The area remains between upper high pressure to the east and
lower pressure across The Four Corners region of New
Mexico/Colorado/Arizona/Utah. At the surface...middle Atlantic high
pressure was ridging southwestward into our area. To our
west...lowering pressure across Texas and Oklahoma with a cool
front just entering the tips of the Oklahoma and Texas
Little change is actually expected today or Friday as warm
day/night temperatures continue with clouds remaining fixed over
the area. We could see a few showers pop up here and there...but
without a low level trigger...rain will be hit and miss variety.
The storm system out west is expected to actually move a little
more to the east and then pull away to the north into the Central
Plains over the next couple of days. Therefore...we are not
expecting any widespread heavy rains this far south...nor severe
weather due to the lack of strong instability or lift. The cool
front will stall just to our extreme interior southeast Texas
zones on Saturday. The front will eventually sag into our area
Sunday and will take most of the day Monday to finally get through
most of the coastal waters before stalling. Therefore...the
overall effect is low probability of precipitation through early Saturday. Rain chances
finally get going late Saturday and finally taper off to start the
new week with modified cooler temperatures.
The next storm system will be a bit more vigorous by middle week
with a stronger cold front and better dynamics for stronger
long fetch of southeasterly flow and tighter pressure gradient
will keep the seas elevated through early morning Friday before
ratcheting down through the weekend. Small craft should exercise
caution will remain up for the most of the coastal waters except
for the southeast outer coastal waters where Small Craft Advisory
continues. Times vary from north to south when these elevated
conditions begin to subside over the next 24 hours.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 76 64 75 63 / 10 10 20 20
lch 77 66 77 64 / 20 20 20 20
lft 78 65 77 63 / 20 10 10 10
bpt 77 68 76 66 / 20 20 20 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Friday for gmz472-475.
Small craft exercise caution through late tonight for gmz450-452-