Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
556 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014
for 12z taf issuance.
not many huge changes to previous taf thinking this morning.
Primary issue is what to do with nocturnal convection that has
popped up along the coast the last few hours. This activity is
trying to ooze inland but is not making much progress for the most
part. Have thrown in a vcsh mention at klch/kbpt starting at 14z
to account...but expect the threat to diminish by afternoon as
middle/upper-level ridging should build over sufficiently enough to
diminish or push this convection southward and away from the area.
Otherwise outside of an hour or two of MVFR visibilities first
thing this morning VFR conditions should prevail through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 320 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
Discussion...high pressure is continuing to build into the region
from the surface through the upper levels this morning, although a
few nocturnal showers have recently developed along the coast
along the land breeze. A drier and more stable airmass will
become more entrenched across the region today and remain in place
through the weekend with only a few isolated storms expected and
mainly in the afternoon. With the ridge in place, heat indices
will run from 100 to around 105 during the afternoons.
By Monday the ridge will begin to break down and shift west as a
trough digs into the eastern half of the country. Monday is still
expected to be fairly dry across the County Warning Area with the best rain
chances north of the area, however by Tuesday a cold front will move into
cenla increasing probability of precipitation. Precipitable water values are expected to climb to around
2.3" while a surface boundary is in place and while multiple
shortwaves round the base of the larger trough. This will lead to
multiple days of scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms
at times Tuesday into the end of the week.
Marine...the Bermuda ridge will build into the area from the east
today turning the flow onshore. The light onshore flow will remain
in place through the weekend into early next week. A cold front
will approach the coast by the middle of next week increasing rain
chances and perhaps returning the offshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 93 76 92 78 93 / 20 10 20 10 20
kbpt 94 75 92 77 92 / 20 10 20 10 20
kaex 94 73 95 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
klft 92 75 92 76 92 / 30 10 20 10 20
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