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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
938 am CDT Sat may 30 2015

Update...main forecast issue for the update will be probability of precipitation and
rainfall across the area. Satellite and radar show a weakening mesoscale convective system
moving into NE Texas. Some isolated coastal showers were also
developing as lch sounding shows an uncapped air mass. Activity
should increase this afternoon and multicell storm development
will be likely in the vicinity of mesoscale convective system outflow and sea breeze
convection. No changes to pop or rainfall forecasts at this moment
as configuration of middle to high probability of precipitation for later today looks good
for now.


Previous discussion... /issued 428 am CDT Sat may 30 2015/

next shortwave and associated mesoscale convective system was located over central Texas
this morning. This wave is forecast to continue east through the
day. Short range models have the southern end of the initial mesoscale convective system
weakening as it approaches...however new development is forecast
to take place in the late morning into afternoon across much of
the area. With high precipitable waters located across the region...could see
some locally heavy rainfall in a few of the storms. Overall threat
of flash flooding appears to be low at this time and will not
issue a watch...however with wet soils...there is the potential
for some isolated flash flooding...especially over East Texas this

The risk for rainfall will continue on Sunday as front slowly
moves into the area. The GFS has come more into line with the
European model (ecmwf) in moving the trough axis east of the forecast area Monday.
This should set US up for some much needed reduced rainfall
chances. That said there does appear to be sufficient rainfall
over the next few days (average of 1-1.5 inches) to cause
additional runoff that could swell some of the creeks and streams
that are in flood and possibly cause a few others to go above

As mentioned already the pattern will shift a bit Monday into
Tuesday and rain chances continue to trend down and confined
mainly to the daytime hours. Some indications are that probability of precipitation still
may be too high in the extended forecast and may need to be
reduced in future forecasts. In addition the highest rain chances
will be over south central Louisiana instead of across East Texas.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 85 68 83 66 / 60 40 60 20
lch 86 70 85 68 / 60 30 60 40
lft 86 69 84 69 / 60 30 60 40
bpt 85 69 85 67 / 60 40 50 30


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...



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