Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
930 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
Update...a few showers are already developing along the coast
this morning, however the air mass in place is less unstable than
24 hours ago. Still expect scattered storms by middle day, and the forecast
remains unchanged from earlier.
Previous discussion... /issued 637 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015/
01/12z taf issuance.
other than a few isolated rain showers dotting the coastal waters...generally
quiet conditions this morning with mostly clear skies at area
airports. Some patchy ground fog could produce a brief MVFR visibilities
prior to 13z...but expect VFR conditions to otherwise prevail.
Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected to develop near the coast this
morning...spreading inland during the day and maintained vc
mention in tafs. Winds will be southwesterly around 10 knots or less. 24
Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015/
all is fairly quiet this early morning on the weather side. Just a
few light nocturnal showers over the Gulf of Mexico and Upper
Texas coast moving toward the forecast area. With a decent amount
of convection on Tuesday...temperatures this morning some 5
degrees cooler than what they have been. Will probably see a few
more nocturnal showers...light in nature...moving onshore during
the remainder of the night...with some areas of patchy fog before
Weakness in the middle/upper levels will continue today...along with
ample Gulf moisture. Therefore...expect daytime heating to kick-
off another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res
models show activity starting a couple of hours later
today...likely due to the fact it will take a little longer for
convective temperatures to be reached. Precipitable water values this afternoon
projected to be from around 1.8-1.9 inches...so some heavy down
pours may occur with the activity...along with some gusty winds
where any mesoscale boundary collisions may occur.
For Thursday into Friday...mid/upper level ridging...especially at
70h...builds over the forecast area. The drier and sinking air in
the middle levels...should provide enough of a cap to keep convection
at a minimum...if any at all. South winds however...will continue
in the low levels...so with lack of convection...things will be on
the hot and muggy side...with afternoon heat index readings
The 70h ridge retreats over the Holiday weekend...and this will
allow for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Activity will be diurnal and nature...and should
dissipate before the night time fireworks.
Early next week...ridging at 500 mb and 70h again strengthens and
builds over the forecast area...to limit daytime
convection...while conditions continue on the hot and muggy side.
high pressure at the surface will continue to ridge from off the
southeast U.S. Coast...to across the northern Gulf of Mexico...and
into the coastal waters. Therefore...a light to moderate onshore
flow will continue...with relatively low seas...through the week
into the Holiday weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 92 74 94 74 / 40 20 10 10
lch 90 77 92 76 / 40 20 10 10
lft 91 76 92 75 / 50 20 10 10
bpt 92 76 93 76 / 40 20 10 10