Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
652 PM CDT sun may 24 2015
for 00z tafs...VFR conditions at this time...but watching klft and kara
for MVFR/IFR possible as rain/thunderstorms move through the area
over the next few hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 433 PM CDT sun may 24 2015/
the upper level disturbance and associated mesoscale convective system that develop last
night over Texas and move into the forecast area this
morning...and is now over the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Heavy rainfall will be possible for another couple of hours
over lower Acadiana...although this area can probably handle the
rainfall better than other portions of the forecast area.
Also...there is a slight risk of a severe storm in that area ahead
of the main band...mainly from a quick spin up or wind damage. A
Tornado Watch is out until 8 PM for that area...but may be
cancelled before then...if the current trends continue.
Air mass behind this disturbance has stabilized...and latest
guidance is a bit drier and not as robust with any significant
development tonight. Therefore...have reduced probability of precipitation to chance
category and also removed the Flash Flood Watch for tonight.
The next short wave is expected to fire off convection on Monday
morning over central and East Texas...with this activity
propagating into the forecast area late Monday morning into the
afternoon hours. Still very high moisture environment will be in
place with efficient high rainfall rate storms possible. So the
Flash Flood Watch will go back into effect on Monday as rainfall
amounts today have kept grounds wet and high hydrologic flows.
Also...with activity expected later in the day...enough daytime
heating will be possible with increased instability...that again a
slight risk for some severe storms...with damaging wind gusts and
frequent cloud to ground lightning...the main hazards other than
the heavy rainfall.
The upper level pattern does not really change until Wednesday. So
high rain chances with possibility of heavy rain will continue
moderate onshore flow will continue through Tuesday as the
pressure gradient remains tight between lower pressure over the
plains and high pressure over the southeast U.S. Therefore...small
craft exercise caution will continue through Monday night.
Also...the moderate onshore flow will keep tide levels along the
coast between 1/2 and 1 foot above predicted levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 70 83 69 83 / 50 70 70 60
lch 73 85 73 85 / 40 60 60 60
lft 72 85 72 84 / 70 60 60 60
bpt 74 84 73 85 / 40 60 70 60
la...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
GM...small craft exercise caution through Tuesday morning for gmz450-