Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
308 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016
Discussion...pleasant day ongoing under sunny skies. Surface
high pressure now over the region yielding lighter winds than
yesterday. Surface observations showing very low dewpoints
generally around 20 degrees...giving US relative humidity values
from the upper teens to middle 20s.
Weak cold front to move across the region Saturday bringing a
chance for a few showers. Maintaining probability of precipitation within the chance
category and generally expecting under 1/4 inch with any
activity. Sunday is looking dry...sunny and pleasant as high
pressure becomes temporarily reestablished. Will start out
somewhat chilly...but warm up to near 60 degrees area-wide.
Secondary surge of cold and dry air incoming Monday as a deep
northerly flow develops between upper low advancing southeast
across the upper mid-west. Feature evolves into a deep trough over
the eastern Continental U.S....while western ridge amplifies accordingly.
Temperatures prognosticated to remain well below the norm for the first
few days of the work-week. Remainder of the week then remains dry
with warmer temperatures returning.
Marine...a weak cold front with possibly a few showers will
advance across the northwest Gulf Saturday. A brief light to
moderate northerly flow will follow in its wake. A second and much
stronger dry front will move through Monday. This feature will be
followed by a significantly stronger offshore flow. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be required.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 33 52 32 60 / 10 30 10 0
lch 35 53 35 61 / 10 40 10 0
lft 35 54 35 60 / 10 30 10 0
bpt 39 55 37 62 / 10 40 10 0
GM...small craft exercise caution until 4 PM CST this afternoon for