Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
519 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015
Aviation...a frontal boundary continues to linger from around
klch to around kopl. Fog and stratus will remain a concern while
this boundary remains in the area through late morning. The fog is
expected to thin as middle day approaches, however stratus will
continue through tonight with a redevelopment of fog possible as
the boundary finally begins to slowly move east late in the taf
Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015/
a quasi-stationary frontal boundary is located this early morning
hours across southwest Louisiana from kopl (opelousas) to the
coast at kcvw (cameron)...then into coastal waters off the
southeast Texas coast. The initial forecast issue is the formation
of dense fog near the frontal boundary.
Dense fog currently being reported from off of Cameron through
Calcasieu Parish...with visibilities in lower southeast Texas into
Beauregard and Allen parishes occasionally a mile with ceilings
under 200 feet. Will keep the dense fog advisory going for these
areas...with dense fog being reported in Calcasieu and Cameron
parishes...and still the possibility of stratus build down into
lower southeast Texas and parishes just to the north...that
occasional dense fog may occur. Trimmed back the advisory for
upper southeast Texas and central Louisiana...as just enough lift
is keeping fog in check with just low ceilings and occasional
light rain. Also...trimmed out the parishes on the eastern side
from Evangeline down to Vermilion...as frontal boundary influence
does not look like it will make it that far to the east by
Strong upper level low over the mountain west will continue to
send disturbances in the southern stream across the region...that
will help lift moisture across the frontal boundary as it inches
to the east across the forecast area through tonight.
Therefore...occasional light rain showers will be possible with
best lift across the northern zones.
High pressure building down from the eastern rockies and upper
level low finally beginning to kick off to the east...will help
push the cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday.
Strengthening upper level southwest flow ahead of an upper level
trough extending down from the upper level low will allow for an
increase in over-riding rain showers on Tuesday night into
Wednesday across the forecast area. With rain chances gradually
ending on Wednesday night into early Thursday...as the upper level
trough pushes off to the east...leaving fair days and chilly
nights for the remainder of the week.
a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending from southwest
Louisiana to off the southeast Texas coast...will move slowly
eastward through tonight. A warm moist airmass along the frontal
boundary and cooler Gulf waters...will allow for dense sea fog
formation through the morning hours.
A surface high building down from The Rockies...will push the
cold front through the coastal waters on Tuesday...then a surge of
colder air associated with the high...will increase northerly
winds on Wednesday. There will be the possibility of Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Wednesday into Wednesday night with the
expected strong northeast winds.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 66 55 61 49 / 50 40 40 60
lch 70 59 66 51 / 30 20 40 50
lft 75 62 68 53 / 30 20 40 50
bpt 68 57 65 51 / 30 20 40 50
la...dense fog advisory until 11 am CST this morning for laz030-031-
Texas...dense fog advisory until 11 am CST this morning for txz215-216.
GM...dense fog advisory until 11 am CST this morning for gmz430-432-