Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1151 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

for 06z taf issuance.


main forecast question tonight continues to be fog potential. For
now infrared imagery shows plentiful cirrus flowing over the region
which could impact br development overnight. As of now best shot
at greatest restrictions to visibility is again kara temperature/dewpoint
spread and crossover temperature potential spell likely vlifr conditions
prior to sunrise. Best shot at staying VFR looks to be kbpt and
kaex where winds are prognosticated to remain slightly elevated through
the night. Remaining sites look to fall somewhere between. After
sunrise VFR conditions should return with primary concern then
becoming another day of slightly elevated srly winds with speeds
expected to run above 10 knots by afternoon.


Previous discussion... /issued 1018 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015/

Update...forecast looks good. No changes needed.

Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015/

Discussion...a ridge of high pressure is extending from the
Atlantic across Florida and the northern Gulf Coast. A frontal boundary
is washing out from the Ozarks to southeast Georgia. A slight risk of severe
weather lies along the weakening boundary this afternoon and evening,
however to south and under the surface ridge warm and tranquil
conditions exist. The surface ridge will remain in place through
Friday morning keeping the area in a general light to moderate
south flow with temperatures running above normal. Aloft weak ridging
will remain over the north central Gulf Coast through Wednesday
morning while slowly weakening. A weak upper disturbance will
move into the region Wednesday night/Thursday with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing by Wednesday afternoon then decreasing
through Thursday as the disturbance departs.

The pattern will begin to shift Thursday into Friday as a leeside
low ejects out across the central sections of the country and into
the Ohio Valley. As the low pushes east a cold front will move to
the Gulf Coast. Rain chances will increase as the front approaches
Friday and temperatures are expected to fall 10 to 20 degrees behind the
boundary by Saturday. A warm up is expected from Sunday into the
early part of next weekend. Rain chances will also remain somewhat elevated
behind the boundary as multiple upper disturbances push across the

Marine...a light to moderate onshore flow will remain in place as
a ridge remains parked across NE Gulf through Friday morning. A
strong cold front will push across the coastal waters Friday night
with a strong offshore flow expected Saturday. An Small Craft Advisory may be
needed Saturday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 60 82 63 83 / 10 20 20 30
lch 62 81 66 82 / 10 20 20 20
lft 62 82 66 83 / 10 20 20 20
bpt 64 80 67 82 / 10 30 30 20


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations