Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
635 am CDT Friday Mar 14 2014
Aviation update...regarding 12z taf issuance. Southerlies are now
reestablished across the region with surface high pressure
advancing further to the east. This will bring abundant low level
moisture streaming into the area with widespread cloudiness/stratocu
prevailing. Expecting ceilings to generally remain within low end
VFR today...slipping down into MVFR tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 459 am CDT Friday Mar 14 2014/
very quiet night with temperatures settling into the upper 30s to
lower 40s across the lakes region in Texas and in central la. Infrared
images indicating clouds in the Gulf are moving up the Texas coast
and will spread into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana
through the morning hours. This will help keep the afternoon temperatures
down a degree or two. South winds today as the surface high has now
moved off the Carolina coast.
Cloudy skies tonight with a bit of fog developing drg the overnight
hours but temperatures will hold in the 50s.
The next system will move down into North Texas tomorrow as a warm
front will lift out of the Gulf and into North Texas this will
open the region up to Gulf moisture. Showers and thunderstorms
will begin to develop Saturday afternoon but will really get into
the swing during the evening into the overnight hours. Upper level
shortwave energy will accompany and support storm development and
there is a chance that a storm or two may become severe. Looking
at about 1/2 inch to about two inches of rain with this next
system. Storms will begin to taper off during the afternoon hours
as the front pushes on through southeast Texas and southern la. Rains finally
drawing to a close late Monday morning as drier air finally
arrives pushing The Mess off to the east.
Drier and cooler weather on tap for Tuesday with Spring weather
returning on Wednesday as temperatures approach 70 degrees.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 67 56 70 61 68 / 10 20 60 70 30
kbpt 67 59 71 61 68 / 10 20 60 70 30
kaex 67 53 70 58 69 / 10 20 60 70 40
klft 68 56 72 61 68 / 10 20 50 70 70