Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
620 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014
high pressure settling over the region today behind the front will
bring clear skies and NE winds. VFR flight rules to hold through the
Previous discussion... /issued 235 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/
latest surface analysis shows cold front moving south of the coastal
waters this morning...with weak to moderate NE flow behind it.
Cooler and drier air continues to filter behind the front. Temperatures
already in the upper 40s across c la...with Lower/Middle 50s
The surface high is expected to slowly slip east by this afternoon. With
a vigorous shortwave expected to dive across the southeast U.S. Friday & Sat...a
much stronger re-enforcing cold front and surge of colder air will
barrel south from Canada across the Central Plains to the Gulf.
This will bring the coldest temperatures of the season for the
weekend...with middle 30s to near 40 expected by Sun morning. With
virtually no moisture to work with...no precipitation expected with secondary
frontal passage. Thus...not much change made with ongoing forecast from
The high is expected to gradually move east by Sun afternoon and Monday...with
return flow and moderating temperatures through Tuesday of next week. By Tuesday...chances
of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain come back with the approach of another upper level trough
and frontal system...with best chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Didn't go higher than 40% for confidence reasons...as still
some slight differences between the GFS/European model (ecmwf) timing and placement.
However...both are now showing increasing moisture from the Pacific...with
possibly injection of the remnants of an east Pacific tropical cyclone.
Still way too early to try and pinpoint areas of maximum precipitation chances
moderate offshore flow will prevail behind a cold front across the
northern Gulf. A stronger surge of colder air will move south
Friday...with much stronger offshore flow expected by Friday night
into Saturday. Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for this by Friday
afternoon into Sat morning. Winds and seas will slowly subside by
Sunday...with southeast winds returning early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 76 53 75 43 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
kbpt 76 55 75 46 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
kaex 75 50 72 38 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
klft 76 51 74 41 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: