Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1135 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

for 06z tafs...VFR conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR around 11-12z
at most sites thanks to lower ceilings and visibilities due to
patchy rain and fog..


Previous discussion... /issued 830 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

current forecast looks on track. Spotty showers starting to
develop and move into East Texas and coastal sections of southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana. Temperatures are in the 50s and
will only drop a couple more degrees with a brisk southeast to
east wind overnight.

Previous discussion... /issued 544 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

Aviation...ceilings will gradually lower through the period with
MVFR or IFR stratus occurring by Sunday morning. Rain chances will
also increase with periods of lower visible possible around or after
midnight at kbpt and klch and then eastward as the early morning
progresses. Showers will become likely at all terminals by
Saturday afternoon. Southeast winds will veer to the SW through the
period as a cold front draws closer.

Previous discussion... /issued 202 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

latest water vapor imagery/upper air analysis showed ridging over
the central and eastern Gulf Coast states...with a deep trough over
the northern Baja California...and a push of jet energy pushing into the
intermountain west.

At the surface...high pressure was prevailed over much of the eastern
Continental U.S....with low pressure starting to take shape over The Rockies.

Not too many big changes to the forecast this model
forecasts remain generally consistent with our next two weather
makers. The Baja California trough is still expected to continue digging
southward...becoming cut off as the northern stream shortwave
continues to dive toward the southeast. The moisture profile over the area
is forecast to gradually improve tonight and into Sunday...with
synoptic lift expected to become maximized late tonight and on
into Sunday. This lift will be enhanced by frontal forcing Sunday
aft/eve...and highest probability of precipitation were carried during this time period.
Ahead of the front...mild to warm temperatures are expected
tonight and tomorrow afternoon...with much cooler air spilling into
the area Sunday night and Monday.

Dry and cool weather on tap Monday into Tuesday...with rain chances
ramping back up quickly Tuesday night as the Baja California upper low opens up
and ejects eastward...resulting in surface cyclogenesis over the western
Gulf. The low is subsequently forecast to track eastward over the
northern Gulf Wednesday and Wednesday night. The model consensus has shifted
the timing of this just a bit...but this did result in lowering
rain chances Tuesday and raising them Wednesday night. Heaviest rains
look to occur generally along/south of the I-10 corridor...where
perhaps an inch or so can fall before rains come to an end. At
least slight chances continue into Thursday as another shortwave
approaches from the northwest...with cold high pressure building
in for the weekend.

moderate east to southeast winds will continue tonight between
high pressure over the Middle Atlantic States and an area of low
pressure developing over the plains. A light to modest southerly
flow is expected Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. This
front is forecast to move through the Gulf waters Sunday
night...with a strong offshore flow developing with the frontal
passage. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible late Sunday
night into Monday morning. Winds and seas will subside Monday
into Tuesday...with winds increasing again toward middle to late week
as an area of low pressure develops and tracks eastward across the
northern Gulf.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 54 70 39 50 34 / 40 70 40 0 0
kbpt 56 71 39 51 36 / 40 70 40 0 0
kaex 51 69 35 47 30 / 50 80 40 0 0
klft 55 71 41 49 34 / 30 60 60 0 0


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...gale watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for the
following zones: waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron
la from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Cameron la to High Island
Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River
to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm.


Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations