Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1050 am CDT sun Mar 16 2014
local 88ds show a diminishing area of rain associated with a pre-
frontal trough extending east-northeast-west-southwest across the forecast area. Meanwhile
surface analysis shows the cold front extending from a low over northern Arkansas
across the arklatex to cntl Texas...in close vicinity to the middle-
level shortwave per water vapor imagery. Adjusted late morning and
afternoon probability of precipitation based on radar trends and the expectation that the
advancing shortwave/front will help shove the ongoing rainfall
toward the coast this afternoon. Elsewhere few changes were made
to the inherited grids/forecasts.
Update out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
Discussion...radar showing a couple of bands of showers and a
few thunderstorms advancing across the area this morning. This
activity associated with initial shortwave energy moving across the
region. While wind profiles look favorable for a severe
thunderstorm potential...surface based convective available potential energy remain low...at or
below 50o j/kg...and will stay low maintaining a minimal
threat for our area. Further to the east of the forecast area...a
better chance for a few severe thunderstorms will exist.
Otherwise...surface analysis showing a cold front extending from
low pressure over western Arkansas...arcing southwest through East
Texas into the south portion of the state. Front is similarly
prognosticated by models to advance across the area today. Will maintain
a chance for a few further showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front...and showers overnight in the wake of the
front until passage of a strongly positively middle/upper trough now
over the South Plains. With passage of this latter system will
come an influx of sharply drier air aloft that will hold across the
area through at least mid-week.
With clouds...scattered rains and an incoming cold front...expect
temperatures to warm Lille if any from early morning lows.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will then be making a return for
the first few days of the new work-week. Return flow then sets up
and we trend back toward the norm for the remainder of the week.
Marine...a cold front will advance across the region today
carrying a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm along and ahead
of it. A strong northerly flow will follow in the wake of the
front...with Small Craft Advisory conditions overspreading the
northwest Gulf through this evening. Winds will gradually
diminish moving through Monday as cool high pressure eases into
the Gulf waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 71 41 56 41 68 / 70 20 10 0 0
kbpt 70 41 56 44 70 / 60 20 10 0 0
kaex 70 38 51 37 71 / 30 20 10 0 0
klft 71 43 53 40 67 / 60 30 20 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 10 am CDT Monday for the
following zones: coastal waters from lower Atchafalaya
River to Intracoastal City la out 20 nm...waters from lower
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am CDT Monday
for the following zones: coastal waters from Cameron la to
High Island Texas out 20 nm...waters from Cameron la to High
Island Texas from 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 am CDT Monday
for the following zones: coastal waters from Intracoastal
City to Cameron la out 20 nm...waters from Intracoastal
City to Cameron la from 20 to 60 nm.
Dense fog advisory until noon CDT today for the following zones:
Calcasieu Lake...coastal waters from Cameron la to High
Island Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Intracoastal City
to Cameron la out 20 nm...coastal waters from lower
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la out 20 nm...
Sabine Lake...Vermilion Bay.
Small craft exercise caution from late tonight through Monday
morning for the following zones: Vermilion Bay.
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