Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1108 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Aviation update...regarding 06z taf issuance. Clear skies ongoing
across the forecast area. Trend is expected to continue. May see
some fog development later tonight with increasing low level
moisture incoming on a reestablished southerly flow. Maintaining
tempo groups for this. A tightening pressure gradient developing
Sunday between high pressure to our east and low pressure over
Texas will yield a gusty south flow. Overall...VFR ahead.
Previous discussion... /issued 1020 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
current forecast is on target. No update planned this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 617 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Aviation update...regarding 00z taf issuance. A gradual increase
in low level moisture can be expected with southerlies now
established between high pressure to our east...and low pressure
over Texas. Carrying late night light fog potential for all
terminals. Otherwise expecting VFR to prevail under clear to
mostly clear skies.
Previous discussion... /issued 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Discussion...a weak front has been washing out over the region
through the past day while weak high pressure nudges in from the
north. The ridge will continue to move into the southeast states through
Sunday then move off the Atlantic coast by Sunday night. This will
keep a south flow over the north central Gulf Coast into Monday
morning which will continue to increase temperatures and moisture.
Ridging aloft will build across the area from Sunday into Monday,
however during Monday/Monday night a cold front will slide under the
upper ridge and stall/wash out across NE TX, north la, and central
MS. Locally, this will veer winds to the SW for Monday afternoon, but
with the upper ridge in place and front remaining north of the
County Warning Area only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected and
mainly across portions of cenla and Acadiana. By Tuesday afternoon
the upper ridge will begin to flatten with an upper disturbance
approaching by Wednesday. Rain chances will increase Tuesday into Wednesday and
then decrease again late in the week as the disturbance moves east
and away from the region.
Marine...a light to moderate onshore flow will remain in place
through the remainder of the weekend and through the coming week
as surface high pressure remains east to northeast of the area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 52 79 58 78 / 0 10 10 10
lch 55 78 61 78 / 0 10 10 10
lft 53 78 61 80 / 0 10 0 10
bpt 57 78 61 78 / 0 10 0 10