Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
614 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015
Aviation...radar depicting once again nocturnals over the near
coastal waters...with some of the activity holding together and
moving onshore. Will maintain vcsh at our southern terminals this
morning...transitioning to thunderstorms in the vicinity at all terminals for this
afternoon. Otherwise...a few sites starting off this morning with
low stratus ceilings and fog. This will be eroding by 14z.
Previous discussion... /issued 339 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015/
not much change to the previous forecast thinking. Generally the
region is dominated by ridging situated over the central portion
of the Continental U.S.. at the surface high pressure over the northeast
Gulf and low pressure in the Central Plains is causing a light
east to southeast flow through about 5kft or so. Satellite/GPS met
data indicates moist airmass remains across the area with precipitable waters
still above 120 percent of normal.
Thus much like previous days will see diurnally driven activity
with nocturnal activity already ongoing in the coastal parishes
and in the coastal waters. Today should be very similar to
yesterday and this pattern will persist through the weekend.
Early next week trough is still forecast to develop in the eastern
portions of the U.S. And then ease west with time. This may
increase probability of precipitation late in the forecast period. Temperatures will
continue to be near seasonal values.
mainly light flow is expected through the period with low seas
except in or near thunderstorms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 20
lch 90 74 91 75 / 40 20 30 20
lft 91 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 20
bpt 90 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 10