Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
356 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...an upper level disturbance continues to move east
across North Texas and OK this afternoon while weak ridging is
occurring across our area from the middle to low levels. A cold front is
also pushing south and east through east OK and down through the
dfw metropolitan with numerous showers and storms. The ridging will
gradually break down across our area as the upper low and surface
front pushes east through tonight. Rain chances will increase this
late this evening across the East Texas lakes area as upper
divergence occurs ahead of the upper disturbance and the frontal
boundary nears. The frontal boundary will likely stall north of
the County Warning Area or right along the north edge, however the line of storms
will continue to move S and east along the pre-frontal trough.
Tonight instability will be modest, but this combined with upper
divergence and a weakening surface boundary will give an outside
chance of an isolated severe storm into Wednesday morning. The surface
boundary is expected to return north Wednesday while the best divergence
passes to the east which will result in gradually decreasing rain
chances through the day. Ridging will again occur Thursday and
Friday, however a very weak back door cold front may move in Friday
or early Sat as a surface ridge moves into the east half of the
country. High temperatures are not expected to change much, however a
slightly drier airmass may filter in allowing overnight lows to
fall a few degrees from the current during Sat and Sunday mornings.
&&
Marine...the pressure gradient will remain fairly tight through
early Wednesday morning which will result in winds across the Gulf
waters running around 15 kts to near 20 kts. Winds will begin to
decrease during Wednesday morning as a weakening frontal boundary
approaches, but stalls well north of the coast. High pressure will
rebuild over the area from the east through Thursday with winds
decreasing and an onshore flow remaining through the end of the
week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 73 86 71 88 71 / 40 50 10 20 10
kbpt 73 87 72 88 71 / 40 50 10 20 10
kaex 71 87 68 90 70 / 60 60 20 20 10
klft 74 87 71 89 71 / 30 60 20 20 10
&&
Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...small craft exercise caution from 7 PM CDT this evening through
late tonight for the following zones: coastal waters from
Cameron la to High Island Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Intracoastal City to Cameron la out 20 nm...coastal
waters from lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la
out 20 nm...waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron la
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Cameron la to High Island Texas
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River to
Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm.
&&
$$
