Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1153 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015
for the 06z taf package.
cluster of convection and associated southward propagating outflow
continues to sink south through east and south central
Louisiana...with decaying showers across west central Louisiana.
VFR is expected to prevail through the overnight hours...but did
include thunderstorms in the vicinity at kaex...klft...and kara for this lingering
convection. Tomorrow should be a virtual repeat of today...with
primarily middle morning through afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Prevailed VFR with thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 651 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015/
radar showing scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across inland southeast Texas/c la...with better
coverage just north of the area...associated with a shortwave rounding
the base of the longwave trough this afternoon/evening across the
region. The evening update includes bumping up probability of precipitation to scattered from
7-10 PM across inland southeast Texas/c la. Afterwards...loss of daytime
heating...only 20% expected...and less after midnight. Otherwise...
remainder of forecast on track...typical late June conditions
with overnight lows in the middle/upper 70s to lower 80s along the
Previous discussion... /issued 228 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015/
Discussion...a ridge of high pressure at the surface extends from
the Atlantic across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the middle levels
and higher a trough still remains across the region. This is
allowing for a SW flow at the surface and for isolated to scattered
eastward moving convection. Tuesday and into Wednesday the
subtropical ridge will keep pumping in Gulf moisture keeping
isolated to scattered mainly afternoon storms in place, however by late
Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. The middle level ridge over
the SW states will nudge into the area. This will drive a drier
air mass aloft over the region. This will decrease rain chances
late in the week and increase temperatures a couple of degrees.
For the coming weekend modest rain chances will move back in as
column moistens again as the subtropical ridge deepens and the middle
level flow becomes more southerly.
Marine...light winds and low seas are expected through the period
outside of storms. At the surface the subtropical ridge will
remain stretched from the Atlantic and across the Gulf of Mexico
through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 74 92 74 92 / 30 40 20 30
lch 77 90 77 91 / 20 40 10 30
lft 76 91 76 91 / 20 30 10 40
bpt 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 10 30