Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
757 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
Update...remnant frontal boundary is still evident as a
convergence band on the lch radar over the coastal marshes. Could
see redevelopment later this evening over The Marshes around this
zone. Cyclonic northerly flow aloft helping to maintain convection
over the coastal waters. Will keep increase to chance probability of precipitation for
eastern zones this evening as radar trends show activity moving in
from the northeast. Closed and stacked low will be over southeast la tnite.
This low will bring additional precipitation on Wednesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
afternoon conditions across the area remain hot and muggy with
light northerly flow at the surface. The previously dominant
ridging pattern is beginning to break down as low pressure aloft
continues to move in from the east. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are currently developing along the coast...with the
potential for more showers to develop across the area later this
afternoon. Tonight...most convective activity will be restricted
to the coastal waters.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the area tomorrow
as the upper level system continues to approach southern
Louisiana. These conditions will continue to prevail through the
remainder of the work week as the system continues to move
westward over the next few days. This upper level low will break
down as upper level ridging begins to build back in from the
Midwest. Therefore...convective activity will be diminished with
slightly increased temperatures going into the weekend.
Long term...computer models are in general agreement of an upper
level trough residing across much of the eastern United States
early next week. As the trough digs southeast...a resulting cold
front will push towards the southeast United States through the
end of next week. For right now...kept temperatures seasonal at
the end of the forecast period until further agreement on frontal
placement is reached.
the western segment of the Bermuda high pressure system continues
to ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. This system will move little...with
a generally light onshore flow prevailing. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday as low pressure aloft
approaches our region from the east.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 73 85 75 90 77 / 20 60 20 30 20
kbpt 75 88 76 91 77 / 20 60 20 30 20
kaex 70 90 73 94 74 / 30 40 20 30 10
klft 73 90 74 91 75 / 30 50 20 30 10
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