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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE...BOTH DEALING
WITH CONVECTION. LOCAL 88DS CURRENTLY SHOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
PERHAPS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/SPEEDMAX ALOFT AFFECTING LOWER
ACADIANA AND THE ADJACENT BAYS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
LINGER...IF NOT SLIGHTLY INCREASE...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE TX COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE DEEP TROF
OVER SRN PLAINS/ERN TX/NRN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
KBPT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
WITH MAYBE A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING KLCH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LESS MOISTURE UP NORTH SO KAEX
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS OF NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE TROF AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND PROB30S
HAVE BEEN INSERTED TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ 

UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20 
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20 
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20 
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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