Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
833 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
Update...light easterly flow to continue as high pressure ridges
in from the East Coast. Previous forecast is on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 527 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
clouds to the west will slowly drift into southeast Texas during the
overnight hours ceilings at bpt 040 to 060. Otherwise...
looking at cs overhead through sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 230 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
weather map shows 1030 mb surface high over the Carolinas...with a southeast
return flow established over southeast Texas/la this afternoon. A scattered mix of
low stratocumulus & cirrus clouds across the region today. Temperatures
this afternoon reaching the middle/upper 60s.
Clouds will continue to increase across southeast Texas as low level
moisture continues increasing from the west. Temperatures will average
8-12 degrees warmer for Wednesday morning expecting middle 40s c la to
upper 50s/near 60 coastal southeast Texas/SW la. Expect the low/middle level
cloud cover to overspread the area by daybreak...with mostly
cloudy to cloudy conditions expected for Wednesday...and into the
remainder of the week. Despite this...warm air advection with the return flow
will bring highs in the lower 70s. For Wednesday night/Thanksgiving
morning...expect low to be another 8-10 degrees warmer ranging
from the upper 50s c la to the middle 60s southeast Texas & coastal SW la.
With the large upper level low across the west slowly moving
east...intermittent pertubations with the available moisture will
yield a slight chance of rain showers across southeast Texas. Model agreement now
keeping the bulk of the moisture and lift over c Texas as the large upper
level low stalls over the west U.S. This trend of higher probability of precipitation will
continue for southeast Texas/c la late Friday into the weekend as the
approaching front hangs up across c Texas through the arklatex.
Meanwhile...east Pacific tropical cyclone Sandra expected to
recurve and hit old Mexico later this weekend as well...with the
interjection of its remnants into this overall storm system giving
someone an increased shot of heavier rainfall. Still way too early
to pinpoint rainfall amounts as timing differences continue among
the longer range models.
high pressure over the southeast U.S. Will continue to shift east
through this week. Developing low pressure over West Texas will
increase onshore flow on Wednesday. Increasing low level moisture
with the higher dewpoints over the still relatively cooler shelf
waters may lead to the development of patchy sea fog late Wednesday
night through Friday. The onshore flow will continue through the
remainder of the week...but will diminish as a front approaches
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 45 71 58 74 / 10 10 10 10
lch 50 72 62 76 / 10 10 10 10
lft 50 73 60 76 / 10 10 10 10
bpt 57 72 64 76 / 10 10 10 20