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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1144 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Aviation...mostly MVFR conditions across the region late this
morning and this will linger through the next few hours. A drier
air mass will continue to move in through the afternoon with
ceilings becoming VFR through the late afternoon and evening. A
few showers and sleet pellets will occur at klft and kara through
the next few hours as well, but precipitation is ending elsewhere. Winds
will remain north through the period and gradually decrease.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 841 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015/

Update...
temperatures are continuing to fall this morning with reports of
snow... sleet...freezing rain from Alexandria....DeRidder...Fort
Polk...and Leesville. Have updated and zones and advisory.

Previous discussion... /issued 547 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015/

Discussion...
for the 05/12z taf issuance.

Aviation...
cold front has moved through the forecast area and a very cold
shallow air mass is settling in. Upper level disturbance will
continue to move across during the day. Ahead of the disturbance
over-running rains and clouds will continue. Thermal profiles look
like some sleet will mix in with the rain at kaex during the
morning hours...with surface temperatures nearing the freezing
mark after 05/12z...could even see some freezing rain. Will go
with a prevailing -rapl...through the morning with a tempo -fzrapl
between 0512z/0516z. Accumulations if any still look to be light.
Also with good upper level dynamics...some isolated lightning may
occur near kaex for the next couple of hours...so will also
mention thunderstorms in the vicinity. For the remainder of the sites...precipitation
should be all rain.

Ceilings will hover between IFR and MVFR through the day with
rain tapering off by 05/18z. Other story will be gusty north winds
with a tight pressure gradient as the cold high pressure system
builds in. Sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30
knots through the daylight hours.

Upper level trough will swing off to the east by late afternoon
and evening with skies clearings. VFR conditions will prevail
through the evening into the overnight...however north winds will
remain on the gusty side.

Rua

Previous discussion... /issued 523 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015/

Synopsis...the strong cold front has just moved through lower Acadiana.
Strong northerly winds and light rain will affect most of the area
with the exception of the lakes area of southeast Texas and northern
portions of central Louisiana where a wintry mix of light rain,
sleet, and periods of freezing rain are indicated. Ice
accumulations should be less than a tenth of an inch.

Drier air moves quickly into the region this afternoon. Although
winds will stay up through the night, a hard freeze looks likely
for central Louisiana and a light freeze for the rest of the area tonight.

Short term...some embedded thunder may continue this morning over
southeast Texas into central Louisiana due to the strong jet aloft.
Will still go predominant rain with the wintry mix to the north.
Winds will be reaching advisory criteria in the wake of the cold
front through the afternoon. Guidance will have a tough time
keeping up with the shallow but very cold wedge of Arctic air so
went lower and favored consensus raw model data not influenced by
March climatology. Strong cold advection will continue tonight, allowing
temperatures to drop well below the freezing mark. Wind chills will
approach advisory criteria in central Louisiana tonight.

Long term...a low is expected to develop over the western Gulf in
response to an upper level trough to the west this weekend.
Overrunning rain is expected to move in Sunday and taper off early Tuesday.
Temperatures should remain on the cold side through the remainder
of this forecast as addtional trough dig into the western states maintaining
cold high pressure over the Southern Plains and a continued
northerly flow into the aforementioned western Gulf low.

Marine...a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters
through this afternoon. A low water advisory and a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for inland waterways and bays as well as
waters close to the coast.

Sweeney

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 38 28 50 33 57 / 70 0 0 10 20
kbpt 38 29 52 36 54 / 70 0 0 10 20
kaex 35 23 47 28 56 / 70 10 0 10 10
klft 37 27 50 31 60 / 70 10 0 10 20

&&

Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Acadia...Allen...Avoyelles...Beauregard...
Calcasieu...East Cameron...Evangeline...Iberia...Jefferson
Davis...Lafayette...lower St. Martin...Rapides...St.
Landry...St. Mary...upper St. Martin...Vermilion...Vernon...
West Cameron.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Allen...Avoyelles...Beauregard...Evangeline...
Rapides...St. Landry...Vernon.

Texas...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Hardin...Jefferson...northern Jasper...northern
Newton...Orange...southern Jasper...southern Newton...Tyler.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: northern Jasper...northern Newton...Tyler.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: coastal waters from Cameron la to High Island Texas out
20 nm...coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron la
out 20 nm...coastal waters from lower Atchafalaya River to
Intracoastal City la out 20 nm...waters from Intracoastal
City to Cameron la from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Cameron
la to High Island Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm.

Low water advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Calcasieu Lake...Sabine Lake...Vermilion Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Calcasieu Lake...Sabine Lake...Vermilion
Bay.

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