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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE
543 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 301 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Surface high pressure will move across western and north central
Nebraska tonight...with winds quickly decreasing and becoming light
and variable overnight. With the dry air in place...another chilly
night expected...with lows by Wednesday morning expected to range
from the middle 30s to near 40 degrees. The exception will be across
portions of Sheridan County...where lows in the lower 30s are
expected. Have added areas of frost to the forecast for this area.

Winds will be from the south all areas Wednesday morning...but will
switch to the northwest behind a surface trough of low pressure that
will move southeast and extend from Ainsworth to Ogallala by late
Wednesday afternoon. The dry airmass will remain in place
Wednesday...but with the surface trough in the vicinity...winds will
remain fairly light and no critically high wildfire danger is
expected. Highs Wednesday will generally be in middle 70s across the

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 301 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Another lobe of Canadian air will come into the northern plains
Thursday and...with it...some of the coldest air of the season to
date. The result is that widespread temperatures below 32f are
likely over the Nebraska sandhills and much of central and southwest

Over the weekend...the upper ridge is expected to Delaware-amplify and
move east while the surface high moves over the eastern U.S. And low
pressure begins developing on the High Plains. On the 305k Theta
surface...moisture transport vectors indicate a good trajectory from
the Texas Gulf Coast as early as Saturday morning. At that time...
the vectors show decent isentropic upglide but...with saturation
deficits of 100-175mb in the 300-310k layer...the chances of
precipitation are quite low. Even as late as Monday afternoon...
when a front begins pushing into the Central Plains...the saturation
deficits are still higher than 50mb in the lower layers. By late
Monday evening...the deficits on the 310k layer approach complete
saturation but it is still pretty dry under the 310k level. By early
Tuesday...the lower layers begin to saturate things become more
favorable for precipitation at the surface. Favorable conditions
then continue into Tuesday night. With fairly stable conditions...
convection is unlikely.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 543 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday for the klbf and kvtn
terminals. Variable winds 6kts or less tonight into Wednesday
morning. After 17z...winds 19008kt at klbf and 30011kt at kvtn.


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for nez209.



Short term...Taylor
long term...Springer

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