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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER 
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG 
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED 
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS 
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF 
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT 
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND 
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE 
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW 
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES 
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS 
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL 
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY 
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO 
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES 
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE 
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED 
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS 
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL 
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION 
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS 
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES 
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE 
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS 
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT 
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A 
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL 
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN & 
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE 
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE 
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF 
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS 
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF 
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND 
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING 
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON 
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE 
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES 
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND 
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS 
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT 
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT 
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE 
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH 
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON 
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S 
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z 
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG 
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE 
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY. 
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY 
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID 
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR 
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.   

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC 
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER 
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY 
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S 
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER 
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT 
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS 
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.                       
 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FLURRIES AND MARGINAL CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE VISUAL RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME UNLIMITED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER

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