Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service North Platte NE
700 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 346 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Have retained isolated thunder through middle morning for north central
Nebraska as showers have been very slow to move this morning. Could
be some isolated showers with the heating of the day in wraparound
but have not included in forecast as should be negligible. Clouds
and their affect on temperatures will be focus in near term. Clouds
will be slow to clear out of north central zones with upper 70s and
upper 80s southwest with more insolation. North winds under 10kts
today and becoming southwest over night. Over night lows in the
upper 50s and dry.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 346 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

A positively tilted upper ridge extending from the Desert
Southwest into the northern plains will remain in place through
Sunday as an upper level trough in the Pacific northwest moves into the
intermountain west. This will keep a thermal ridge into the
central and northern plains and the return of Summer-like
temperatures to western Nebraska with 86 to 94 Saturday and 88 to
95 Sunday. Low level moisture at 850 mb increases on Sunday across
eastern Colorado and the nebr Panhandle. There will be a slight chance for
thunderstorms to move into the eastern Panhandle Sunday night.

As convergence develops along the Lee side trough across eastern
Colorado and the western Panhandle on Monday...moisture will be in
place for thunderstorms to develop west of the forecast area Monday
afternoon. The 0-6km shear is expected to be 20 knots or lower and
the convective potential energy less than 1000 j/ severe
storms are not likely.

Highs temperatures Monday through Thursday will continue to range
above normal mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible along the dry line
Wednesday and Thursday but severe weather is not likely.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 700 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Stratus will linger through the late morning east of a line from
Merriman to klbf. Ceilings will vary from LIFR to IFR before
gradually lifting into MVFR and then VFR late morning. Some MVFR
visibilities possible between kvtn and konl. North winds will
increase this morning and diminish to light and variable through
early evening.


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...power
long term...roberg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations