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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Synopsis...
issued at 345 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
weak ridging across the Central Plains...resulting in southwest flow
across the High Plains. Rich moisture environment continues with 18z
klbf sounding showing nearly 1 inch of precipitation water. A couple of surface
lows in the area. One across Minnesota and another across
southwestern Kansas. Numerous boundaries across the area...some
associated with the low pressure centers and other are remnants of
convection last night and early this morning.

&&

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Two areas of thunderstorm development expected to be the main
concern. The first will be along a boundary that runs near the southeast
corner of the County Warning Area. No development yet however...initiation expected
in the next couple of hours as we reach peak heating. These storms
will push east and should have minimal impact to the County Warning Area...although
there could be an outflow boundary sent this way. The second area
of concern...and more likely to impact the area...will be the
convection already firing along the Front Range. This will follow
the westerly/southwesterly flow and push east into the region. While
the storms are isolated this afternoon...models develop a mesoscale convective system and
move it east through the night. Strong winds and hail are the main
threat. With the remnant boundaries across the area and dew points in
the upper 50s to lower 60s...a few stray strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible outside the two main expected complexes.

By morning...in the wake of the mesoscale convective system...models are favoring stratus
and fog. Mixing and early June sun should be able to burn off any
low clouds and result in a partly sunny day. Highs in the 70s to
around 80.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 345 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Middle term and long term solutions in fair agreement with a lot of
subtle waves moving through southwest flow aloft with ridge into
the southern Central Plains through the weekend. Have gone with
blend for the forecast with wave timing issues. Boundary to the
south will lift north Thursday night and continue as the focus for
thunderstorm development over southwest Nebraska with diffluence
aloft low level jet increasing through the evening. Ridge building
north into northern plains Friday through Saturday warm front
lifts slowly north with temperatures rising into the upper 70s and
low 80s with convection along the front. Upper ridge breaks down
Saturday night into Sunday with positively tilted trough to the
west with convection over the Nebraska Panhandle into southwest
Nebraska and along the Kansas Nebraska border over night Sunday
into Monday. With boundary driving south into the Central Plains
with some drying aloft only slight chances precipitation through
the end of the period after Monday. Highs in the low 80s and lows
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 615 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

There are two areas of interest regarding thunderstorms tonight. The
short range high resolution models are not giving a clear signal
with the timing and extent. Current indications are that the
strongest storms are likely to develop along a front across Kansas
and make their way into central and south central Nebraska 06z or
later. The other...in eastern Wyoming and extreme western Nebraska
is likely to spread into west central Nebraska about the same
time. The current short term projections indicate storms reaching
bbw-lbf- Oga-ien by 08z. Also...the latest projections keep the
storms south and east of a vtn-tif-mhn line and along and west of
ien- aia. Besides heavy rain...there is a possibility of hail and
wind gusts exceeding 45kt with the storms. However...adding to the
uncertainty...visible satellite imagery shows an additional
boundary over central and eastern Nebraska with moderately
developed cumulus clouds. This could produce another area of
interest for the forecast tonight.

With easterly wind in the wake of the storms...stratus is likely to
develop after 10z with 1000-1500 feet ceilings likely and a
significant chance of ceiling below 1000 feet. The probability of
ceiling below 1000 feet is low enough that we will keep it out of
the forecasts for vtn and lbf for the time being.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 345 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015 rivers will continue to slowly
fall over southwest and western Nebraska through the coming week.
Some fluctuations in the rivers may be expected with some heavy
rain across the basins but they are not expected to have much
impacts.

&&

Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...masek
short term...masek
long term...power
aviation...Springer
hydrology...power

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