Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys 
National Weather Service Key West Florida
955 am EDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

kbyx detects isolated showers over offshore waters surrounding the
Lower Keys. Elsewhere...kbyx detects no precipitation echoes in the
remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
partly cloudy. Winds over land are northeast near 5 miles per hour. C-man
winds...on average...are northeast at 5 to 10 knots. Temperatures
are near 80 degrees.

Short term (this afternoon)...
in the low levels of the atmosphere...a cold front will move
southward across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. In
the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere...a trough of low pressure
will progress eastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. The
12z kkey sounding is moderately unstable and quite dry for this time
of year...with a precipitable water (pwat) value just above one and
one quarter of an inch. Atmospheric moisture will increase a bit
this afternoon. By sunset this evening...precipitable water values will be just
under one and one half of an inch...which is slightly below normal
for the end of October. The presence of this relatively dry air mass
will limit rain chances to no more than 10 percent for today.


light northeast breezes will prevail this afternoon. No advisories
or cautionary headlines expected tonight through Friday. Small craft
are urged to exercise caution on the coastal waters of the Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico Friday night due to sustained northwest surface
winds of 15 to 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
required for the coastal waters of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of Florida Bay Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely
be required for all Keys coastal waters Saturday night through at
least Monday night.


data from the 12z kkey radiosonde observation sounding places an inversion around
080...trapping altocumulus and altostratus layers which are
spreading and thinning across the island chain. These decks will
give way to mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the afternoon.
Winds will be around 5 knots and from the northeast...backing to the
northwest overnight.


on this date in Key West climate 1910...a particularly
cold day unfolded across the Florida Keys. In that year...the daily
record cold high temperature of 71f was recorded in Key West. Also
on Oct 30th...1910...the daily record low temperature of 59f was
recorded in Key West. This record low is also tied for the coldest
temperature ever recorded in October in Key West. Temperature
records at Key West date back to 1872.


Key watches/warnings/advisories...



data acquisition.............Chesser

Visit US on the web at weather.Gov/key

Follow US on facebook and twitter at...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations