Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Key West Florida
245 PM EDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
under mostly cloudy skies and light mainly southwest winds...temperatures are
averaging in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees along the Florida Keys.
In the lower 90s in Keys communities. Meanwhile...local radars are not detecting
any precipitation echoes in our County Warning Area. Surface wise...a narrow ridge
axis is draped over our entire area...resulting in south to southwest winds of
around 5 knots.
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
the semi-permanent...deep layered western Atlantic ridge reaching
across the central Bahamas...the Florida Straits and island of Cuba will gradually
lift northward into the sunshine state. Meanwhile...a middle and upper level
low just east of the Bahamas will slide westward and approach our area...resulting
in brief weakening of the anticyclone. With that said...a decoupled flow...limited
moisture and a light and chaotic flow below 700 mb will prompt only
isolated 10 to 20 percent probability of precipitation through the period. See no reason to stray from
highs generally in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 80s.
Long term (monday through thursday)...
a modest subtropical surface ridge will extend into the southern half
of the Florida Peninsula for the majority of next week...with perhaps a couple
of subtle undulations migrating across our region. With that said...moisture
remains fairly benign along with a decelerating low level flow. Therefore...will
maintain only isolated 20 percent probability of precipitation...with highs generally in the lower
90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s.
a western Atlantic ridge extending into our County Warning Area will hold
firm tonight and Friday...before slowly lifting northward into the Florida
Peninsula this weekend and early next week. Beginning Saturday night...winds
will increase into the 10 to 15 knot range...with the higher winds expected
on Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits.
VFR will continue at both the Key West and Marathon terminals
through the taf period. Mainly west winds under 5 knots will become
Climate...on this date in Keys weather history...1890...the low
temperature was 69 degrees setting the daily record minimum
temperature for Key West on July 30th. This record stands 125 years
later. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Key West 82 92 80 92 / 20 10 10 10
Marathon 82 94 80 94 / 20 20 10 10
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