Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
933 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS AT THE CMAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND AT LONG KEY ARE
FINDING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS A FEW
KNOTS HIGHER. ALONG THE ISLANDS WINDS ARE MAINLY BELOW 10 KNOTS
TRENDING TOWARDS 5 KNOTS. KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS AND IN HAWK CHANNEL...AS WELL AS FEW IN THE
GULF WATERS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. TOPS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 20 KFT WITH A FEW IN THE GULF WATERS MAKING IT TO
30 KFT. NO THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT. THE EVENING
SOUNDING WAS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE WISE...BEING A LITTLE
WARMER AND DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE CLOUD BASE THAN
CLIMATOLOGY. SBCAPE WAS NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 85 J/KG OF INHIBITION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.9 INCHES.

.SHORT TERM...
SO FAR NO NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE HAS MATERIALIZED ALTHOUGH THE
MESO/SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP IS SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE. THIS MAY BE DUE
IN PART TO A LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSETTING ANY WIND SURGE
MECHANISMS. A FEW KNOTS INCREASE MAY YET MATERIALIZE. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY CLEAR CONVECTIVE FORCING...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT AND NO STRONG STORMS
ANTICIPATED. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS
NO CLEAR REASON TO RAISE OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON 
TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE 
EAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations