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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
323 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF AND BAY WATERS...AND
OUR EASTERN-MOST ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE ISOLATED AND WEAKER ECHOES
HAVE BEEN FOUND IN OUR ATLATNIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS KEEPING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
80S. DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE CLOSE TO 77 ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THAT IS QUITE STICKY FOR APRIL.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO BE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE KEYS
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. KEPT OUR GRIDDED NUMBERS
THE SAME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT NUDGED THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOME TIME LATE
THURSDAY...BUT A WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST LAYERS SHOULD REDUCE THE RAIN
CHANCE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN BECOME
CENTERED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
TURN OUR WINDS AGAIN FROM THE EAST...AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THEY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY. A MIX OF CAUTIONARY
OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS TRANSITION AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD YOU HAVE
BOATING PLANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 28/00Z AT BOTH 
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. A CLOUD LINE WILL LIKELY 
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF THE 
ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THERE IS 
NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT ANTHROPOGENIC HAZE FROM THE CANE FIELDS OF
CUBA ONCE AGAIN...WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. MAY HAVE TO
AMEND FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARIES DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND AMPLE LOCALIZED LIFTING. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1898...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE 
IN KEY WEST WAS 73 DEGREES SETTING THE RECORD FOR COOL MAXIMUM 
TEMPERATURE ON APRIL 28TH. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING AFTER 117 
YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  78  87  77 / 30 40 60 50 
MARATHON  91  78  88  78 / 30 40 60 50 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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