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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. 
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.   

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN 
2000 FEET AND 12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED 
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT 
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND 
FIELD LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD 
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. 

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA FRIDAY. THIS 
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE 
TRIMMED BACK BY 10 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS 
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT 
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE 
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS...CORROBORATED BY AVAILABLE SATELLITE BASED 
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISLAND 
BASED WEBCAMS DESCRIBE ONLY THIN CUMULUS LINES WITH VERY LITTLE 
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THUS...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE 
CURRENT FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT 
BOTH TERMINALS. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY 
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO 
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING 
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 40 
MARATHON  79 90 79 90 / 10 20 30 40 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS 
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

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