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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
237 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
POPCORN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM
THE BAHAMAS AT THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH
THESE CLOUDS AND ARE MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE LARGE RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST STATES REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE MARINE REPORTING
STATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN CURRENTLY...AND NEAR 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE REEF TO THE SOUTH. THE ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY...OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

.FORECAST...
WE EXPECT ONE MORE GASP OUT OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MEANS A WIND SURGE OVERNIGHT...THEN A LULL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAKER SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DISPLACED. THEREAFTER...EXPECTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONE CHANGE WILL BE IN CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A WEAK
PERTURBATION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...ARRIVING IN COORDINATION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL DIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET OVER THE KEYS
AREA AS THE PERTURBATION ARRIVES WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. HAVE
STAYED WITH CONSERVATIVE LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. 

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES IS BEING QUITE STUBBORN
BUT WILL FINALLY BE DISPLACED BY FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT FRESH EAST
BREEZES WITH PERIODS OF PEAKS AND LULLS. THE KEYS AREA IS CURRENTLY
IN A LULL PERIOD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FLAG FLYING FOR ANOTHER UPDATE CYCLE.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO LAY DOWN GRADUALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GENTLE BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT-LIVED...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND
2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF OCCURRENCE. SUSTAINED EAST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET
WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1984...2.95 INCHES 
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY 
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 27TH...A 
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 31 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY 
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  87  80  88 / 20 20 20 20 
MARATHON  80  90  80  91 / 20 20 20 20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ032>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS 
DATA COLLECTION...............PARKE

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