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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
936 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THE KEYS AREA
THIS MORNING. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS REVEALING WITH 20 PERCENT
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM YESTERDAY AND MUCH HIGHER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. WE STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN AIR LAYER
EVENT CROSSING THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
FRESHENING EAST WINDS TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE
700 MB LAYER. 

.FORECAST...
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE EAST THERE MAY BE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SAL WILL HELP KEEP THIS IN CHECK.
WILL NOT UPDATE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDUCE
20 PERCENT TO 10 PERCENT...AS SOME CONVECTION MAY BREAK THROUGH THE
WEAK CAP. HAVE UPDATED WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO PERIODS DUE TO THE
20 KNOTS OR BETTER ABOVE 1K FEET...AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. SIMILARLY TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO BOUNDARIES BEARING DOWN ON THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM ACROSS THE STRAITS...CONVERGING WITH DECAYING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BETWEEN BOUTS WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CROSSING THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAK PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE AREA...AND DAILY INTERRUPTION OF SURFACE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE UPPER KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH ON THE
MAINLAND. OTHERWISE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS THE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. HIGHEST BREEZES
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION SOUTH OF HAWK CHANNEL. BREEZES WILL SURGE AND
LULL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY WINDS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. 

&&

.AVIATION...
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON FLORIDA KEY INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS.
EXPECTED SOME SCATTERED CU CLOUDS WITH BASES AT FL020-025 AND CIRRUS
AOA FL200-250. THRU 18Z...SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 100 DEGREES
AOA 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS...THEN DECREASING TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM 120 DEGREES THEREAFTER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1957...THE KEY WEST WEATHER
BUREAU OFFICE MOVED TO THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON JULY
FIRST. SINCE THEN THE WEATHER BUREAU HAS MOVED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE AND UNDER NOAA...AND CHANGED ITS NAME TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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