Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Key West Florida
155 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
kbyx detects isolated showers throughout the forecast area. Skies
over the island chain are mostly sunny. Winds over land are southeast
to south at 5 to 10 miles per hour. C-man winds...on average...are southeast to
south at 5 to 10 knots. Temperatures are in the middle to upper 80s.
Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
a weak pressure pattern will prevail tonight and Wednesday. A trough
of low pressure over the southeast Bahamas will move to the northwest
toward the Florida Keys Wednesday night through Thursday night. Rain
chances in the short term portion of the forecast should gradually
increase as this trough of low pressure moves closer to the service
Some Key Largo streets along Blackwater and Buttonwood sounds have
been inundated by saltwater for nearly two weeks...and water levels
are still high. Perhaps the onset of stronger northeast to east winds
and slowly falling predicted tides later this week will allow water
levels to finally fall.
Long term (friday through tuesday)...
the aforementioned trough of low pressure should stall near the
Florida Keys Friday and remain in place most of the upcoming weekend.
A large area of high pressure will progress eastward across the
northeast United States Sunday through Monday...before entering the
northwest Atlantic Ocean Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances in
the long term portion of the forecast will be above normal for this
time of year.
gentle southeast to south breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters tonight. No advisories expected tonight through at least
Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of the offshore Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Saturday night. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for the coastal waters
of the offshore Gulf of Mexico Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be
required for the coastal waters of Florida Bay...nearshore Gulf of
Mexico...and Atlantic Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
required for all Keys coastal waters Sunday night.
overnight...VFR conditions will prevail at the Key West and Marathon
international terminals. Brief MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible in and
near any isolated showers that manage to impact either/both
terminals. Winds will be variable at 6 knots or less. Expect only a
few cumulus clouds...with bases at or about 2500 feet.
on this date in Florida Keys weather history...in 1955...the low
temperature at Key West International Airport was 69 degrees. This
set the daily record for minimum temperature measured in Key West on
October 13th...a record which still stands 60 years later.
Temperature records at Key West date back to 1872.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Key West 79 87 78 86 / 20 30 40 40
Marathon 79 88 78 86 / 20 30 40 40
Florida...coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the Upper Keys...flz076.
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