Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys
National Weather Service Key West Florida
240 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
Discussion...fresh east to southeast breezes continue across the
Florida Keys and area coastal waters this afternoon. The tightest
gradient and strongest winds are southwest of an imaginary line which
extends from south of Andros to north of the Dry Tortugas.
Temperatures are just above 90f...and skies are mostly sunny.
Short term (tonight through Monday night)...the subtropical ridge will
continue its influence tonight...pressed against lower pressure
sliding west into the Yucatan Peninsula. As this wave pushes into
the Yucatan...its extreme northeastern flank appears to remove just
enough inhibition across our County Warning Area to warrant a 20 percent pop. Fresh
breezes tonight...will slowly slacken...Sunday through Monday
night...with minor nocturnal surges. As breezes slacken...the low
level inversion will slowly erode. For this reason...probability of precipitation increase to
30 percent on Monday. There are no discerning mesoscale or synoptic
features to identify...just leaning closer to climatology. High
temperatures will be near normal...and overnight lows will be above
Long term (tuesday through saturday)...a TUTT cell will push west
through the Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile...an inverted
trough in the easterlies is prognosticated to pass through the Keys
Wednesday through Thursday. Whether or not these two features
commingle vertically...remains to be seen. Based on this
uncertainty...we have retained a window of 40 percent probability of precipitation...followed
by a low end chance to close out the long term.
Marine...a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for The Straits of
Florida and Hawk Channel...west of the Seven Mile Bridge...and also
the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico around Dry Tortugas National
Park. Small craft should exercise caution over the remainder of The
Straits...Hawk Channel...and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico
north of the Lower Keys. Fresh east to southeast breezes will prevail
through Sunday...with slackening breezes next week.
Aviation...until 12z/31st...the best chance for a MVFR episode or
perhaps a vicinity shower will be between 06 and
12z...otherwise...VFR conditions will predominate at the Key West and
Marathon terminals. East to southeast winds (110) of 12 and 17 knots
with gusts between 20 and 25 knots will slacken slightly tonight.
Climate...on this date in Keys weather history...1891...3.76 inches
of rain fell at Key West. This set the daily record rainfall on
August 30th for Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Key West 85 90 84 90 / 20 20 20 30
Marathon 85 92 84 92 / 20 20 20 30
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT tonight for gmz034-044-054-
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