Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys
National Weather Service Key West Florida
920 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
kbyx detects isolated showers throughout the forecast area. Skies
over the island chain are partly cloudy. Winds over land are north
to northeast at 15 to 20 miles per hour. C-man winds...on average...are north
to northeast near 20 knots...with gusts near 25 knots. Temperatures
are in the upper 70s.
Short term (overnight)...
a broad area of low pressure near Andros Island will move to the
northeast of the Bahamas overnight. The 00z kkey sounding is
marginally unstable and seasonably moist...with a precipitable water
(pwat) value just above one and one half of an inch. Atmospheric
moisture will decrease overnight. By sunrise Saturday...precipitable water values
will be just under one inch...which is about two Standard deviations
below normal for this time of year. Rain chances tonight in the
Florida Keys will be kept under all numerical model output
statistics due the anticipated invasion of this very dry air mass.
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Keys coastal waters
tonight due to sustained north to northeast surface winds near 20
knots...with gusts near 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely
be required for all Keys coastal waters Saturday morning. A Small
Craft Advisory will likely be required for the coastal waters of the
Florida Straits Saturday afternoon. No advisories expected Saturday
night through at least Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory may be
required for the coastal waters of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
Monday afternoon and Monday night. No advisories expected Tuesday
through at least Wednesday night.
expect MVFR ceilings at both the Key West and Marathon terminals
through at 22z this evening...and may be accompanied by brief
periods of very light rain or drizzle. Thereafter...through 25/13z
skies will gradually clear. Winds at the surface will be out of the
north to northeast around 12 knots...with gusts around 20 knots...
and extend through the height of the Aerodrome.
on this date in Florida Keys weather history...in 2005...Hurricane
Wilma progressed rapidly to the northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico...north-northwest of the Florida Keys...during the early
morning hours as it intensified. A wind gust near 135 miles per hour was
estimated by National Park service personnel at Fort Jefferson in
Dry Tortugas National Park. Storm tides ranged from 5 to 7 feet in
the upper and Lower Keys to 7 to 9 feet in the Middle Keys. About 60
percent of Key West was inundated by salt water. The city of Key
West estimated up to 35 percent of Municipal vehicles were flooded.
Numerous homes and businesses were flooded in the Florida Keys and
the overseas Highway was flooded in many locations in Marathon and
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