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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE KEYS THIS EVENING WITH
SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCUMULUS AND OVERCAST IN CIRROSTRATUS...ALL SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET CORE CALCULATED AT 168 KNOTS FROM THE JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA SOUNDING. TEMPERATURES WERE STEADY IN THE MID 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...AND NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY LULLING
BELOW 10 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS AND JUST BELOW 15 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF.
RADAR INDICATES A COUPLE BANDS OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND WATER
DROPLETS ALOFT APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST.

A SHALLOW TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE
BUOY OVER 200 NM WEST OF NAPLES HAS CONTINUED TO GUST NEAR 30
KNOTS. THUS IT IS EXPECTED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SURGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW RAINDROPS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DAMPEN THE GROUND NOR
PROVIDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND PUBLIC FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK IN TERMS OF MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES 55 TO 62 ACROSS THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE LULLED JUST UNDER 15 KNOTS AT AVAILABLE
OBSERVING SITES IN FLORIDA BAY AND ALONG THE REEF...BUT WILL SOON
INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND HIGHEST OVER WARMER
STRAITS AND SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OPEN SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AS WELL.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NORTHERLY LATER WEDNESDAY
AND FALL BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD...BUT REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BROKEN
TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED BASES FL035-045 AND A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRROSTRATUS DECK FL180-300. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS
EVENING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........35
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....35 
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

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