Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Juan PR
243 PM AST Friday Oct 9 2015

Synopsis...lingering moisture from the tropical wave will be
present over local area for the rest of the weekend. An upper
trough to the west of the local area will help with the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the local
area...especially in the afternoons through the weekend. Surface
high pressure will continue to promote an east to east-southeast wind for
the next several days.


Discussion...showers and thunderstorms affected eastern PR as
well as the San Juan metropolitan. There were other thunderstorms that
developed across the interior...north central and northwestern PR.
As the tropical wave continues to move west and outside of the
local area...lingering moisture may cause isolated to scattered
showers overnight. For tomorrow...the lingering moisture will
combine with the local effects and heating to help develop showers
and thunderstorms...particularly across the northwest quadrant of PR.
Isolated showers expected elsewhere.

Moisture decreases and remains near normal for the upcoming
week. However...afternoon convection is expected during the
afternoon hours just about every day this upcoming week...mainly
across the western portions of PR with isolated to scattered
showers elsewhere in PR and the USVI.

Temperatures are expected to be a bit closer to normal for the
next several days with maximum temperatures from the upper 80s to around 90
degrees across the lower elevations.


Aviation...shra/tsra possible across tjbq and tjmz through
09/21z. Weather improving after 09/22z but passing rain showers may cause
vcsh across the local terminals. Winds from the east with sea
breeze variations at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts near
shra/tsra...decreasing overnight to 5-10kt.


Marine...seas up to 5 feet for the next several days and winds
up to 15 knots through the weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
sju 79 90 80 91 / 10 20 20 20
stt 80 89 80 90 / 20 20 20 20


Sju watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations