Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 am AST Monday Aug 31 2015
Synopsis...TUTT across the central Atlantic will continue to
amplify into the eastern Caribbean through Wednesday...holding
across the area through the upcoming weekend. Middle level high
pressure will persist north and northwest of the local area over
the next few days. Surface high pressure north of the local area
will maintain moderate easterly winds today and Tuesday...
becoming light to gentle on Wednesday. Light to gentle
southeasterly winds will then persist through Friday. Tropical
wave near 53w will reach the eastern Caribbean late tonight and
Discussion...mostly clear skies prevailed across the local
islands overnight with a few sprinkles noted over the waters.
Coastal temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
easterly winds at 10 miles per hour or less.
Fair weather is expected to prevail today under limited moisture.
However some showers and isolated thunderstorms are still expected
to develop over and west of the Cordillera this afternoon due to
local effect and diurnal heating.Some haziness could be expected
today due to sal. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms
is expected early Tuesday through Wednesday as a tropical wave and
associated moisture...now located near 53w... moves across the
local islands. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will be short
lived as TUTT amplifies across the eastern Caribbean by middle week
and local islands remains under its convergent side. This will
result in a fair and stable weather pattern late Wednesday through
at least Saturday.
Aviation...mainly VFR conds expected at all taf sites through the
forecast period. However...brief MVFR conds at jmz between 18z-22z
in shra/-tsra...W/mtn top obscured over western interior of PR. Low
level easterly winds 10-20 knots. Sea breeze variations after 14z.
Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will increase late in the forecast period as tropical wave
enters the eastern Caribbean...impacting mainly the leeward/USVI
Marine...seas and winds will continue to diminish through midweek.
A tropical wave is forecast to enter and move across the eastern
Caribbean Tuesday through Wednesday...bringing periods of showers
and thunderstorms across the local waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
sju 91 79 91 79 / 20 50 50 40
stt 90 80 90 79 / 20 50 50 50