Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
258 PM AST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
Synopsis...upper level trough over Hispaniola...will move east
next few days. An upper level ridge will develop across the local
area during the weekend. A surface high pressure system will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the region. Patches
of low level moisture will affect the region from to time.
Discussion...cloudiness with passing showers were noted over
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Best rainfall
amounts were noted over the eastern half of Puerto Rico...and over
Saint Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. This area of moisture will
continue to move west...away from the local area tonight. A dry
air mass is expected to encompass the local region from the
east...which will limit the shower activity across the region next
couple of days. A surface high pressure will continue to produce
moderate to fresh trade winds across the northeast Caribbean
during the next few days. These winds will transport patches of
low level moisture from time to time.
An upper level ridge is expected to develop over the region
during the weekend. This will suppress the development for shower
over the local region...with precipitable water values expected to
drop to less 1.2 inches by the weekend. Therefore...no significant
weather event are forecast affect the region in the next couple
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail across all taf sites
through at least 12/12z.
Marine...latest buoy observations indicated seas has drop below 7
feet across the coastal waters. Therefore...the Small Craft
Advisory which was in effect for most coastal waters has been
cancelled. However...small craft should exercise caution across
most coastal waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
sju 72 85 73 84 / 0 20 10 10
stt 75 87 75 86 / 0 20 10 10