Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
513 am AST Sat Oct 25 2014
Synopsis...upper level ridge will continue to dominates the
region through the weekend. At the surface...surface high pressure
ridge northeast of the region will gradually weaken and shift
northeastward. This will result in southeast wind flow across the
region trough at least Monday.
Discussion...tropical wave passed well south of the area...having
little impacts on the weather locally. Isolated to scattered
showers were observed over the local Caribbean waters overnight.
Some of these showers moved over the south and southeast sections
of Puerto Rico...Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies prevailed...without any shower
activity. A high pressure ridge northeast of the region will
gradually weaken and shift northeastward. This will result in
southeast wind flow across the region trough at least Monday.
Therefore...warmer than normal maximum temperatures are expected
during the weekend mainly along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico.
For the middle of next week...an increase in moisture is expected
mainly Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough dominates the
northeast Caribbean. Therefore...a wetter pattern is possible for
next week under these atmospheric conditions.
Aviation...shra/isold thunderstorms and rain possible over northwest PR this afternoon. As a
result...brief MVFR conds and mountain obscurations possible in and
around tjmz and tjbq between 25/17-21z. Elsewhere...VFR conds
expected through the forecast period. Southeasterly winds of 5-15 knots
will prevail below fl200.
Marine...seas up to 4 feet and winds up to 16 knots are expected
to prevail across the coastal waters today.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
sju 91 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 20
stt 89 78 88 79 / 40 40 40 30