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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
353 am EST sun Nov 29 2015

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 308 am EST sun Nov 29 2015

Areas of light rain and drizzle continue to fall over eastern
Kentucky this morning with the cold/stationary front draped from
SW/Wayne County to NE/Rowan County. This front will continue to
slowly sag southward throughout the day today and eventually reach
the Tennessee/Virginia border during the afternoon hours. As this front sags
southward...cooler...drier air will be working into the northern
counties...helping to limit rain in that area. In fact...rain totals
so far have been less than what models suggest area-wide.

Models are in good agreement showing that the front will stall once
it reaches the Tennessee/Virginia border. Then a second wave/surface low will develop
and move along the front Sunday into Monday keeping rain chances
across the southern part of the forecast area. Rain and clouds will
limit the diurnal temperature range throughout the short term with
temperatures dipping towards 50 degrees in the north but staying near 60
degrees in the south.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 353 am EST sun Nov 29 2015

The dynamic weather remains front-loaded within the extended
portion of the forecast. The models are in good agreement with a
deepening system to move from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes Monday night through Wednesday morning. This will continue
the prolonged wet weather across eastern Kentucky through Tuesday a cold front gradually arcs in from the west. Deep
moisture will be in place with precipitable waters running way above normal for
this time of year. Plenty of forcing will also coincide with the
ample moisture between the surface front and the upper level

At this point...anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches of quantitative precipitation forecast is predicted
by the models in a 36 hour period from Monday night through
Tuesday night...with the higher amounts generally aligning along
the Cumberland River basin. This may or may not result in some
significant rises along creeks...streams...and possibly a few
river points...depending upon how much falls prior to this...and
if these amounts materialize. Given the uncertainty...will keep
things pretty generalized for the severe weather potential statement.

The precipitation will wind down across southeastern Kentucky by
Wednesday morning...with drier and cooler weather to follow for
the rest of the week. Highs will average in the low 50s...and lows
in the upper 20s and lower 30s...close to seasonal normals.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 108 am EST sun Nov 29 2015

Variable conditions continue this morning as a very slow moving
cold front continues to sag southward across eastern Kentucky.
Areas of rain have been intermittent and scattered leading to
ceilings to vary between MVFR and IFR. However...LIFR ceilings are likely
behind the front...and this is already apparent at ksym where the
front just pushed through. Brief gusty winds are also possible
with the frontal passage. The front will eventually reach the Tennessee
and Virginia borders by this afternoon where it is expected to stall.
This front will be the focus for continued rain...and will also
help lower ceilings throughout the day today as it pushes through the
area. Therefore...expect light rain and mainly IFR to at times LIFR
conditions to persist through the taf period. Winds will be light
and variable except with the frontal passage.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jvm
long term...geogerian

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