Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
618 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 457 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Light rain is moving in from the west out ahead of a pre-
frontal trough. Valley temperatures have responded in the past
hour...however based on the latest hrrr and rap runs...am still
concerned for some sheltered locations in the east potentially
ending up with a light glaze. As such...have hoisted a short fuse
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am to cover this potential. If the
better warming trends continue like they have in the past
hour...then this will likely get dropped before expiring.
Once this first batch of rain departs off to the northeast...there
will be a lull in the activity...until a vigorous short wave
trough rotates through this afternoon. The lapse rates steepen up
quite a bit this afternoon...and have included some isolated
thunder...with the numerous rain showers that will be developing.
Temperatures will warm into the 40s for most today...with snow
showers likely holding off for most places until dusk or slightly
thereafter. The only exception to this will be the higher
elevations along the southeast as the column cools quicker aloft.
Light to occasionally moderate snow showers will kick in tonight
through Tuesday...as an upper level trough gradually deepens
across the Ohio Valley and several embedded waves rotate through
eastern Kentucky. Storm totals still look to range from 2 to 4
inches...with 4 to 6 inches for the highest terrain in the
Temperatures will be taking a nose dive through the period...with
readings falling below freezing by this evening...and then into
the 20s through Tuesday.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 618 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Model solutions are quite similar early in the period...then but
diverge considerably during the last 72 hours or so of the
forecast. Broad mean trough will remain anchored over the eastern
half of the Continental U.S. Through the period as several impulses
rotate through the base. Main challenge for the extended will be
a late week shortwave that may produce another round of wintry
weather for the area. Confidence is low as both runs the 0z European model (ecmwf)
and GFS have diverged from their respective solutions of 24 hour
back. The 0/06z GFS has trended faster...much weaker and further
south with this system as it tracks through the southeastern
Continental U.S....hardly producing any sensible weather. The 0z European model (ecmwf) is
slower and stronger with this system...carrying a depening surface
wave further north across the Tennessee Valley. Consequently the European model (ecmwf)
advertises a more favorable path for the potential of significant
snowfall and currently advertises such. However...overall
confidence will continue to run low with either solution until
there is better run to run continuity and agreement.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 210 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
An approaching cold front will bring mainly rain to the area from
west to east through dawn. The rain band will shift off to the
northeast and dissipate through 15z...before additional shower
activity develops for the afternoon as a potent upper level
disturbance rotates through the region. Ceilings and/or visibilities
will drop down to MVFR within the more sustained rain initially.
Ceilings and visibilities will likely raise up towards
15z...before gradually dropping down to MVFR once again in the
afternoon. There may even be a rumble of thunder at times.
Incoming colder air will then change any rain showers to snow
showers towards dusk...with MVFR to IFR conditions at times
expected through the end of the period.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for kyz044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for kyz088-118-
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am EST
Wednesday for kyz104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am EST this morning for kyz104-
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for kyz087.