Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
938 am EST sun Nov 29 2015
issued at 938 am EST sun Nov 29 2015
Precipitation has mostly tapered off over the northern part of the area.
Forecast soundings suggest that saturation in that area will
remain shallow the bulk of the time into the day Monday. Have
lowered probability of precipitation in the far north...and have also changed precipitation type
to drizzle in areas lacking deep moisture.
Update issued at 655 am EST sun Nov 29 2015
The cold front has pushed further south and is now near the
central portion of the forecast area stretched SW to NE. Most of
the steadier rain has ended with the exception of some showers
near the Tennessee border. Elsewhere...drizzle keeps filling back in even
north of the front. Regardless...have trended probability of precipitation back north of
the front a little quicker than the previous forecast per most
recent hrrr. Also freshened up the temperature grids to reflect the
cooler temperatures north of the front. Still expect cloud ceilings to
remain low today...especially behind the front.
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 308 am EST sun Nov 29 2015
Areas of light rain and drizzle continue to fall over eastern
Kentucky this morning with the cold/stationary front draped from
SW/Wayne County to NE/Rowan County. This front will continue to
slowly sag southward throughout the day today and eventually reach
the Tennessee/Virginia border during the afternoon hours. As this front sags
southward...cooler...drier air will be working into the northern
counties...helping to limit rain in that area. In fact...rain totals
so far have been less than what models suggest area-wide.
Models are in good agreement showing that the front will stall once
it reaches the Tennessee/Virginia border. Then a second wave/surface low will develop
and move along the front Sunday into Monday keeping rain chances
across the southern part of the forecast area. Rain and clouds will
limit the diurnal temperature range throughout the short term with
temperatures dipping towards 50 degrees in the north but staying near 60
degrees in the south.
Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 353 am EST sun Nov 29 2015
The dynamic weather remains front-loaded within the extended
portion of the forecast. The models are in good agreement with a
deepening system to move from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes Monday night through Wednesday morning. This will continue
the prolonged wet weather across eastern Kentucky through Tuesday
night...as a cold front gradually arcs in from the west. Deep
moisture will be in place with precipitable waters running way above normal for
this time of year. Plenty of forcing will also coincide with the
ample moisture between the surface front and the upper level
At this point...anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches of quantitative precipitation forecast is predicted
by the models in a 36 hour period from Monday night through
Tuesday night...with the higher amounts generally aligning along
the Cumberland River basin. This may or may not result in some
significant rises along creeks...streams...and possibly a few
river points...depending upon how much falls prior to this...and
if these amounts materialize. Given the uncertainty...will keep
things pretty generalized for the severe weather potential statement.
The precipitation will wind down across southeastern Kentucky by
Wednesday morning...with drier and cooler weather to follow for
the rest of the week. Highs will average in the low 50s...and lows
in the upper 20s and lower 30s...close to seasonal normals.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 700 am EST sun Nov 29 2015
Front continues its slow push southward across the forecast area
this morning with light rain and drizzle affecting the taf
sites. Ceilings have lowered to LIFR criteria area wide...with varying
visibilities. This trend should continue throughout the day today
with rain on and off as the front pushes towards the Tennessee border.
That being said...ksme and kloz will likely see the most rain
today as the front stalls. With a moist air mass in
place...expect decent fog overnight tonight especially in any
location north of the front so have included this in the tafs.
Winds will be light and variable through the period.