Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
1047 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

issued at 1047 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

Extensive high clouds continue to roll in from the southwest and
look like they may hold through the night. Updated to increase the
cloud cover. Despite the high clouds...this won't have much impact
on temperatures and in fact valleys are already into the middle 20s
with ridges falling into the low 30s. Updated temperatures to
decrease them a bit in a few more places into the upper teens
based on current trends. These updates have been saved and sent to
the ndfd and web.

Update issued at 716 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

High clouds continue to stream across the area...but
regardless...valleys are already dropping fast with valleys
already into the low to middle 30s. No major changes at this time
outside of updating the hourly temperatures and dewpoints.

Update issued at 530 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

Updated this evening to increase skies to partly cloudy areawide
as an extensive area of high level clouds has spread across the
area. Based on satellite trends...we should see skies go back to
mostly clear overnight...but it might take most of the evening
before this happens. Given the teens we had last night for
temperatures and dewpoints that mixed into the middle teens
today...we should see some teens in the valleys again tonight.
Thus...lowered temperatures a bit in the valleys and on ridges to
match the colder guidance a bit better. Updated forecast has been
saved and sent.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 345 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

The short term period will feature benign weather as eastern
Kentucky will be under control of weak surface ridging through
Sunday morning. Currently...temperatures have warmed into the low 40s
with plentiful sunshine. There is some high level cirrus moving
into the area but these clouds will not have any effect on
tonight/S low temperatures which are expected to get into the low
and middle 20s. upper level southern stream low will
eject out of Texas and pass by to our south. As this low approaches
the region ... will see an increase in cloud cover throughout
the day...though temperatures are still expected to get into the
upper 40s. Temperatures Saturday night won't get as chilly due to
the lingering clouds...but will likely still dip into the upper

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 439 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

A very large upper trough will be in the process of developing
over the eastern Continental U.S. At the start of the period...with a closed
low developing and descending from Minnesota to the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday morning...then weakening and opening. A very large
associated surface low pressure will track just a bit further
north. The system will send a cold front through the local area on
Sunday night...bringing a prolonged period of much colder
temperatures. Precipitation will likely accompany the front in the form
of rain and snow...but aside from high terrain near the Virginia should not be cold enough for accumulation with the
frontal precipitation. Remaining frontal precipitation will move out to the
east on Monday. As the upper low approaches...additional precipitation
should develop in the deep...moist...upslope...cold air advection.
It could be a mixture of rain and snow at first on Monday...but
would go over to snow quickly late Monday or Monday evening. It
will be persistent...especially in our NE counties. Light
accumulations are likely before winding down by Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. There is still not good model agreement late in
the week...especially for temperatures. A model blend was
used...but confidence is not high.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 716 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

Partly to mostly clear skies with VFR conditions will continue
through the taf period. Winds will be light as high pressure
passes over eastern Kentucky.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...jvm
long term...hal

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations