Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
430 am EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 430 am EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Current conditions across eastern Kentucky features some waning
convection ahead of a cold front. Will keep some slight chance
probability of precipitation through dawn to cover this activity but overall...the
weakened forcing and lack of instability will bring this activity
to an end. Locations across the area received some heavy rainfall
overnight and a saturated surface coupled with light winds...will
see some fog development through dawn.

Heading into the day...the front that passed through overnight
will stall out over the Kentucky and Tennessee border area. The upper level
flow sets up in a ridge over the west and trough over the east
with numerous waves traveling over the ridge and into the Central
Plains...eventually tracking into Kentucky. The next upper level wave
will track into the southern Kentucky by late Tuesday. Plenty of surface
instability along with the wave and a boundary in place will allow
afternoon and evening convection over southern Kentucky with a
slight chance to the north. This activity will take more of a
diurnal trend to it with convection waning shortly after sunset.

Surface high pressure passing by to the north Tuesday night will
provide some subsidence and light winds once again combined with
some dew points still in the middle 60s will lead to more fog
development towards Wednesday morning. Timing of the next upper
wave seems to be more later Wednesday into the evening and
overnight. Though the track...with the surface boundary sliding a
bit further south will make for a further track to the south for
the surface low. This still is a bit of question as the tam and
the GFS have been a bit inconsistent. Nevertheless...with the
boundary still over the south and plenty of instability developing
through the day...will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
through Wednesday afternoon and into the evening. If the models
are correct in the boundary lifting north any sooner...probability of precipitation will
need to be increased. For now...will anticipate unorganized
convection and diurnally driven convection...at least through
Wednesday afternoon.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 430 am EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

The extended portion of the forecast will be issued shortly.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 128 am EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms forming ahead of an
approaching cold front and further south...an outflow form the
earlier convection over the Bluegrass. Thus...over the some of the
southern taf sites...have mentioned thunderstorms in the vicinity in these areas as
convection has waned a bit. Much of the area tonight has received
a good shot of rain leaving a saturated boundary layer and fog
development is expected tonight ad towards dawn. Will put some
field mins at the taf sites with the fog lifting after 13z.
Heading into Tuesday afternoon...convection will again erupt along
the stalled boundary but convection should be sparse and will
leave thunder out of the tafs for now. VFR conditions will be
expected through the day with fog developing again at the taf
sites Tuesday night.



&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...shallenberger
long term...geogerian
aviation...shallenberger

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations