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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
355 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 355 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

20z surface analysis shows a cold front settling over far eastern
Kentucky with showers affecting the County Warning Area both along and behind this
boundary. Temperatures vary with the frontal position as cooler
air is pouring in on west winds for western parts of the area
while warmth remains in the far east. Specifically...temperatures
vary from the lower 50s in the west to the lower 60s near the
Virginia border. Dewpoints likewise vary with the temperature
within a degree or two of the dry bulb values. Winds are from the
south to southwest for the eastern parts of the County Warning Area while they are
more westerly to the west running at 5 to 10 miles per hour with occasional
gusts to 15 or 20 miles per hour.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term as
they all take a fairly deep...and compact...low through the upper
Midwest and into the Great Lakes during the period. The core of
this lows energy does target the lower parts of the Ohio Valley
as it moves by later Wednesday. Given the model agreement have
favored the higher resolution guidance from the nam12 and hrrr
through the short term portion of the forecast.

Sensible weather will feature showers continuing to affect the far
eastern part of the area along that stalled front. To the west
light showers and sprinkles will be found. The drier air moves
into the western parts of eastern Kentucky tonight into Wednesday
ending any accumulating rains...though fog and low clouds will
remain into the morning. the east the showers will
linger well into the day Wednesday. Additionally...a secondary
cold front will move into the area on Wednesday evening and
overnight bringing a potential for sprinkles or flurries to at
least northern parts of the area. The air will dry out throughout
the state by dawn Thursday. Colder air will gradually filter into
the area through Wednesday with a bigger surge that night for lows
back to near freezing by dawn Thursday.

Used the shortblend as a starting point for the T and dew point grids
into Wednesday morning and the superblend thereafter. From this
made some minor...terrain based...adjustments to the low
temperatures tonight and Wednesday night. As for probability of precipitation ended up
similar to MOS blend for tonight and Wednesday the on the high
side by a tad for Wednesday night.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 215 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

An extended stretch of dry weather is expected for the entire
extended period as a ridge builds in overhead and remains nearly
stationary through the upcoming weekend. With precipitable waters around 0.15
through the weekend...we will likely see some large diurnal ranges
each day with cold mornings and mild afternoons with highs likely
reaching above model guidance each day and possibly under guidance
at night. Next chance of rain may come sometime around next
Tuesday...although given the pattern going into Tuesday...not
willing to bite on this system yet.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 130 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

A cold front is pushing into the area with low ceilings and visible along
with rain showers...although the winds have been rather light
across this boundary. The eastern taf sites ahead of the front
remain VFR or MVFR while along and behind it they are seeing IFR
or lower conditions. Expect poor conditions to take over the
entire area by early evening with visible and ceilings quite low through
the night and into Wednesday morning. The ceilings and visible should
improve later Wednesday as high pressure and drier air build into
the state. Winds will switch to the west with time and remain
rather light...though some occasional gusts this afternoon will
hit 15 kts or so.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...greif
long term...kas

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