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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
100 am EDT Friday Jul 11 2014

Update...
issued at 1014 PM EDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Other than some high clouds drifting across the southern County Warning Area...all
seems to be clear at the moment across the County Warning Area. Loaded in the latest
observational guidance for temperatures...dew points...and winds to make
sure the forecast reflected current conditions. Otherwise no updates
are needed at this time.

Update issued at 545 PM EDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Isolated convection this afternoon has spawned outflow boundaries
across portions of eastern Kentucky. Additional convection has then popped
up along these boundaries and slowly followed the outflow direction.
One such area was along the Rockcastle and Madison County
borders...where an outflow boundary spawned a decent rain
shower...and then remained nearly stationary with the far edge of the
outflow boundary for a couple hours now. It seems as though this
shower is finally showing a diminishing trend...with its own outflow
boundary now showing up on radar as well. Went ahead and updated probability of precipitation
to make sure isolated coverage was included for the location of this
shower...as well as other areas affected by outflow boundaries over
the next couple of hours. Also loaded in the latest observational
data to make sure the forecast jives well with ongoing conditions.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 305 PM EDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Models in good agreement through the short term. Expect isolated
showers and thunderstorms to die off rather quickly late this
afternoon/very early evening as a short wave trough moving through
the Ohio Valley today lifts quickly northeastward out of the region
tonight. Aloft a Flat Ridge of high pressure will nose its way into
our area and bring with it a drier...hotter air mass from out of the
Central Plains. Subsidence aloft will create a strong cap across the
area effectively squashing any threat of rain across our County Warning Area through
the remainder of the short term. Temperatures will warm back to
Summer time levels by tomorrow under strong sunshine. But with drier
air in place overnight lows should be relatively pleasant.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 305 PM EDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Unseasonably cool air mass on the way for next week. Operational
models and ensembles are in good agreement with an unusually deep
upper low dropping out of Canada and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday
of next week. An associated surface cold front will drive south
across the region during the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Despite
it being middle July it appears the front will make it all the way to
the Gulf Coast...with unseasonably cool weather and well below
normal temperatures in store for eastern Kentucky for the middle of next
week. This will be in sharp contrast to temperatures this weekend
which will be above normal. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected
early next week...with the exact timing of the front and mesoscale convective system
activity likely determining our severe weather threat. With the
amplifying pattern and significant air mass change the severe weather
threat will definitely need to be monitored early next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 100 am EDT Friday Jul 11 2014

The air has become a little drier than the night before...so decided
to go with higher visibilities for this morning than the night before. Also
noticed on the drive in that the mist in the River Valley was a lot
less than last night. This is consistent also with the model
guidance which was also going more with a MVFR solution. The fog will
be burning off by 12z in most locations. The rest of the period will
be VFR.

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...

&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...jmw
short term...ray
long term...sbh
aviation...jj

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