Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
250 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 250 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Shortwave ridging will build over our area through Thursday with
high pressure in place to our east. This will provide dry conditions
with patchy valley fog the only weather concern. The fog should not
be as widespread as last night but may become locally has
been the case for the past several nights. Temperatures tonight will
fall back into the 50s again with highs on Thursday warming into the
low to middle 80s.

A cold front will race from the plains into western Kentucky
Thursday night. In advance of this front clouds will increase and a
band of showers will progress eastward into our region towards dawn
on Friday. Will include a mention of thunder late in the night...
although in all reality this will likely just be showers as axis of
best elevated instability is prognosticated to stay to our west through 12z
Friday. Low level southerly flow will respond to the approaching
front and the increased mixing should keep most locations in the 60s
Thursday night...and fog free.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 250 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

The long term portion of the forecast will begin with a strong cold
front moving across the area on Friday. Thunderstorms are in the
forecast for Friday...but at this time instability looks limited...
and strong to severe storms are not expected. Behind the front the
chance for showers will linger into Friday night. The big news will
be a surge of very cool air in the wake of the cold the
upper level trough over the eastern part of the country deepens
dramatically. 800 mb temperatures may drop below freezing by 12z
Saturday. This will lead to a very chilly weekend...with forecast
high in the 50s on Saturday being around 15 degrees below normal.
Depending on sky condition from Saturday night into Sunday morning
frost will be a possibility...with minimum temperatures expected to
be as low as the middle 30s in some spots. Temperatures will moderate
on Sunday afternoon...but still remain 10 or so degrees below

Another cold front will bring a chance of showers from Sunday night
into Monday. This front will not push as far south...and the chance
for showers will linger into Tuesday. Temperatures will not be
nearly as cool in the wake of this second front. By the middle of
next week the flow will relax and become more zonal across our
area...with above normal temperatures expected by Wednesday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 135 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

High pressure will be in control of our weather through the next 24
hours. The only concern for aviation interests will be the
development of patchy fog late tonight. The dense fog should be less
widespread than last night and confined to the river valleys with
just a couple hours of MVFR fog expected at the loz...sme...and sjs
taf sites around dawn.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Abe
long term...sbh

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations