Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
845 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Update...
issued at 840 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013
00z surface analysis shows a secondary cold front crossing into Kentucky
from a low pressure area moving into New England. A large area of
cool high pressure descending from the upper Midwest follows this
front. Along the boundary to our northwest...there is a broken line
of light showers at the moment. The convection from the afternoon and
early evening has departed far eastern parts of the area taking any
risk for thunderstorms along with it. As such...have updated the
forecast to address this and also fine tune the timing of the precipitation
threat with the next boundary. Did also minimize the rain chances in
the east for the next several hours before they pick up again with
the approach of the front. Finally...matched up the T and dew point grids
for the latest observation and trends. Updates have been sent to the ndfd and
web servers along with a fresh set of zones and severe weather potential statement.
&&
Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 223 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013
The models are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the systems
moving across the area. A weak cold front is currently moving across
the area. It has produced scattered showers across the Coal fields
and there has also been a couple of thunderstorms mainly near the WV
border. There is a front with cooler air behind it which will be moving
across the area this evening. It will also bring some scattered
showers to the area tonight. One concern is how cold will it get on
Friday night as the clouds move out of the area and the winds stay
light. Expecting to some some patchy valley frost that
evening...however no hard freezes.
Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 241 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Models are in decent agreement through the remainder of the
weekend...but start to diverge by early next week with confidence in
the forecast much less from Monday Onward. The period will start with
surface high centered over the area...providing tranquil conditions.
By late in the weekend...a warm front will develop over the Ohio
Valley. The GFS is much more aggressive with the warm front lifting to
the northeast...while the European model (ecmwf) is much slower. A compromise of the
two would keep the boundary in our vicinity through
midweek...supporting some isolated showers and thunderstorms across a
portion of the area each day. This may be confined to the afternoon
and evening each day. Otherwise...no significant pieces of energy
rotating through the area...so it looks like isolated activity may be
the best we do into next week. Of course with the models in
disagreement on evolution...things could change warranting a period
of higher probability of precipitation. After cooler weather this weekend...a gradual warming
trend is anticipated into next week as the warm front lifts across
the area.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 845 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Another round of scattered showers is expected to pass through east
Kentucky late tonight as a secondary cold front drops through the
area. From this...a bout of lower clouds and reduced visible...down to
MVFR for a time...is anticipated. Conditions will improve early
Friday as high pressure clears out the lower clouds and yields VFR
conditions from middle morning on. Breezy northwest winds of 10 to 20
kts will settle a bit overnight before resuming from the north during
the day Friday.
&&
Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Update...greif
short term...jj
long term...kas
aviation...greif
