Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
804 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
issued at 640 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Adjusted probability of precipitation down mainly in the northeastern counties...but
decided to keep at least slight chance probability of precipitation across the entire
area this afternoon as high res models produce afternoon showers.
Also freshened up T/dew point grids to align with most recent observation.
Otherwise...forecast remains on track for today.
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 356 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
A few stubborn showers remain in eastern Kentucky as of 330 am but
shouldn't cause any additional flash flooding concerns this morning.
So have decided to cancel the Flash Flood Watch a bit early. With a
moist ground and clearing skies...areas of dense fog have set in
across much of the area reducing visibilities to 1/2 Michigan or less in
spots. This is the main concern in the short term and will include
it in the severe weather potential statement.
The upper level low will continue to move northeastward today
allowing for a gradual improvement/clearing of conditions and sky
cover from SW to NE throughout the day. There may be some
lingering showers in the northeast but otherwise there will be a
short break from the rain until Tuesday afternoon when a frontal
boundary approaches the region. Temperatures today and tomorrow
will reach the middle 80s...right at normal for the beginning of
July. This is the first time we will see the 85 degree mark in
over a week.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 444 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
An upper level impulse passing near the Canadian border will send
a surface cold front in our direction at the start of the period.
It will stall nearby before heading back north. Models show
variation concerning how far south it makes it...and this plays a
role in the pop. Have used a pop gradient with higher probability of precipitation in the
north for Tuesday night and Wednesday. After this...upper level
ridging builds over the southeast Continental U.S. And then slowly retrogrades to
the west over the weekend. Can not rule out some convection
popping up with the building heat and humidity associated with the
ridge...especially since we will not be under the center of the
ridge. However...the pop will be fairly low...and the greater
chance will be to our north and northeast...further removed from
the ridge and closer to the surface frontal boundary.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 804 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Most locations had very low ceilings and/or visibility at taf
issuance. There were also some showers lingering over the
southeast part of the state. Ceilings and visibility will improve
this morning...giving way to generally VFR for the afternoon.
However...showers may persist or even redevelop for the
afternoon...with thunderstorms also possible in the afternoon. The
best chance is near the WV border. Any precipitation should die
out this evening. Fog will develop in valleys tonight and spread
outward. Most taf sites will be affected...especially those not on