Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
758 am EDT sun may 3 2015

issued at 758 am EDT sun may 3 2015

Freshened up the hourly temperatures...dew points...and sky cover
through 15z to account for the latest trends in observations.
Also removed fog this has been a lot more restricted
to the deeper river valleys early this morning. Updates have been


Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 336 am EDT sun may 3 2015

Surface high pressure is currently centered across the southern
Appalachians...with a surface cold front dropping southeast across
the northern plains. Aloft...flattening flow is on tap...with
modest ridging currently positioned across Texas...and a short
wave trough skirting the U.S./Canton border...with some embedded
weaker short waves wobbling through the eastern half of the Continental U.S..

Another cool night has been on tap for the eastern Kentucky
valleys...with low to middle 40s currently being reported under
mostly clear skies. Most ridgetops are running about 10 degrees
warmer...generally in the low to middle 50s.

Dry weather will continue to hold on across the area through ridging will move in aloft...allowing the surface
high to shift east...settling across the western Atlantic by
Monday. Return flow will allow for a gradual increase in
warmth...with highs topping out at near 80 today...and low 80s on
Monday. Lows tonight will range from the middle 40s in the the middle 50s on the ridgetops.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 336 am EDT sun may 3 2015

Upper level ridging will remain in control across the region and
points to our south through the extent of the long term forecast
period. This pattern will allow for southerly flow across the addition to strong subsidence. As such...expect
temperatures to warm throughout the period under the southerly
flow...with middle 80s likely by middle and late week. However...with
subsidence in not expect much moisture influx. This will
keep relative humidity levels relatively low comparatively. The only caveat to has been projected by the European model (ecmwf) and GFS over the last few that afternoon cumulus development and such warm temperatures
could lead to some isolated pop development. It still appears as
though the best chances for this to occur will be over the high
terrain in the far southeast Wednesday and Thursday during the
afternoon...with better coverage as we head into the weekend and
the ridging pattern begins to break down a bit.
However...soundings are still not supporting enough moisture for
anything of concern or of high confidence. As such...kept only
slight chances in through the weekend with very low quantitative precipitation forecast values. We
should see valley fog each morning as you would expect under the


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 758 am EDT sun may 3 2015

High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions in place across the
area...besides some patchy IFR or worse fog expected between 06
and 13z. This should remain fairly shallow and restricted to the
deeper river valleys across the area...steering clear of the taf
sites. Few to scattered higher based stratocu will be seen once
again this afternoon...generally in the 6 to 8k feet above ground level range.
Winds will average at 5 kts or less...mainly out of the south
through the period.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...geogerian
long term...jmw

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations