Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
929 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
issued at 929 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
10 degree Ridge Valley temperature split has developed with some of
the cooler Kentucky mesonet stations at 915 PM being Paintsville 4w with
36 degrees and Jackson 3se at 39. Forecast lows in the upper 20s in
the cooler valleys and around 40 on the warmest thermal ridges looks
good and no changes planned other than to update hourly forecast
temperatures and dewpoints based on latest observational trends.
Update issued at 715 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
With clear skies only update needed at this time is to adjust hourly
forecast temperatures...dewpoints and winds based on latest trends.
Main item to watch this evening will be how quickly valley
temperatures drop off after dark.
Short term...(tonight through Monday night)
issued at 213 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
We will be situated between a surface ridge dropping to our south
this evening and a cold front slowly approaching the Ohio River from
the north. This will result in the onset of warm air advection
tonight...and persisting through Monday night. Moisture return will
be meager during this time. This coupled with smooth/benign west-northwest flow
aloft will give clear to partly cloudy skies.
Noticeably warmer maximum temperatures will show up on Monday afternoon.
Night time periods will feature Ridge/Valley differences due to the
warm air advection and good radiating conditions each night.
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 247 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
Only stormy period this week will come Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening. The period will start with another very warm day
on Tuesday as temperatures climb well into the 60s again...possibly
reaching 70 in some areas. Shortwave energy ejecting out of the
Central Plains will then phase with a northern stream wave dropping
southeast into the far western Great Lakes. This will help develop a
surface low across southern Missouri by Tuesday evening. This surface
low is then expected to track fairly close to the Ohio River along
the northern edge of Kentucky Tuesday night...before exiting to the
east to the Middle Atlantic States by Wednesday afternoon. Good dynamics
are in place with these phasing waves to generate widespread showers
by late Tuesday night...and especially through Wednesday morning.
With eastern Kentucky initially in the warm sector of this storm...we
could see some weak instability to allow for a small chance of
thunder. Will plan to introduce thunder into the forecast this
afternoon. As the system pulls east on Wednesday...a sharp cold front
will quickly drop southeast across eastern Kentucky with much colder
air flooding into the area. After a mild start in the 50s on
Wednesday...temperatures by late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
evening will fall back into the low to middle 30s. As a deformation band
of moisture pushes east Wednesday evening...we should have sufficient
moisture in place to provide for a brief period of snow. While not
expecting a long period of snow...it may persist long enough to
provide a light coating of snow across most of the area. The highest
potential for snow accumulations over an inch will be the higher
terrain in the east and southeast. Most valley locations will likely
be looking at less than an inch of snow...especially given the warm
ground temperatures going into Wednesday. Snow will quickly wind down
to flurries as we head into Wednesday night...with flurries likely
ending towards dawn. A little uncertain how quickly skies will clear
given the upslope flow and the thermal ridge will off to our west.
However...for right now...will trend towards a partly cloudy sky by
Quieter weather will return for the end of the week as middle level
heights build...setting the stage for moderating temperatures from
Friday into next weekend. Thus...after a chilly Thursday (well below
normal)...warmer weather is on tap by next weekend. Looking a bit
farther past the end of the forecast period reveals our next
potential storm system to impact the area late Sunday into early next
week. Once again...there will at least be a small possibility of some
snow with this system.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 715 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
With high pressure in control...VFR conditions will prevail through
Monday evening. Winds will be stronger on Monday afternoon with SW
winds gusting to between 15 and 20 knots.