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National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
141 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Update...
issued at 1210 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Diurnally driven showers have begun to pop up just outside of the
forecast area so will keep an eye on those throughout the
afternoon. Still thinking they will be isolated in nature.
Though...there is a convective cluster dropping south-southeast through Ohio
that will have to be watched to see if it clips northeast
Kentucky. Otherwise...did a quick update to freshen up the grids.
Sent updated grids to ndfd and web servers.

Update issued at 900 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Early morning fog is lingering across southeast Kentucky this
morning but should dissipate in the next hour or so. To our
north...showers have formed and are moving southeastward. So have
kept with the slight chance probability of precipitation in our northern counties this
afternoon...especially since the latest high res guidance picks up
on this trend. Otherwise...freshened up the T/dew point grids and sent
updated grids to ndfd and web servers.

Update issued at 659 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

With fog mentioned in the zones...the forecast remains on track
for today through Thursday. Have uploaded the latest observations
for temperatures and dew point. The grids have been sent to ndfd
and the web servers.

&&

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 255 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Current conditions across eastern Kentucky continue to feature
weak surface high pressure over the area. Through today and
Thursday...the upper level pattern will remain unchanged with
eastern Kentucky under a building middle level ridge and weak flow
with little support over east Kentucky. This will continue to
result in a diurnal trend to any shower and thunderstorm
development...which will be during the afternoon today and
Thursday.

A weak upper level short wave does track across northeastern Kentucky
today and into Thursday and will allow for a better
chance...though not much...of showers and thunderstorms. Have
indicated this in the zones as the hi res models do hint at
this...especially with the assistance of the higher terrain to the
east. The more prevalent chance lies on Thursday. Still
though...nothing more than a slight chance. Otherwise...the days
will be highlight by morning fog and afternoon above normal high
temperatures with those highs running nearly 5 to 7 degrees above
normal.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 255 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

An upper level ridge will remain in place through the period...
but embedded weak disturbances will pivot around the region. While
the bulk of the period will be dry...a small threat for an afternoon
shower or storm will exist from Friday through Sunday. Aerial
coverage will likely be less than 20 percent...but opted to keep
probability of precipitation in the slight chance category so they show up in the forecast.
Otherwise...considering the recent dry conditions and 850 mb temperatures
prognosticated to reach around 20c...temperatures will warm well into the
80s to near 90 each day through the Labor Day weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 142 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Diurnally driven showers have popped up outside of the forecast
area with a convective cluster slowly making its way southward
toward northeast Kentucky. This cluster may make it into the
area...possibly affecting ksym taf site. For now have kept all
rain out of the tafs. Skies should clear shortly after sunset
allowing for another foggy night. IFR or below conditions are
possible towards dawn across all taf sites. Tomorrow afternoon...
there is a higher chance for showers across eastern Kentucky.
Winds will be light and variable throughout the period.

&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...jvm
short term...shallenberger
long term...kas
aviation...jvm

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