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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
750 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015

issued at 750 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015

Updated to reflect latest radar trends with ongoing precipitation which
will be moving out to the east-northeast.

Update issued at 652 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015

Rain is coming to an end from southwest to northeast this morning
so have trended probability of precipitation down for the morning hours. Though...still
cannot rule out some scattered drizzle. Also did a quick refresh
of the temperatures to reflect most recent observation. Sent updated grids to
ndfd and web servers.


Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 330 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015

Current radar shows main area of rain pushing east out of the region
with some lighter rain filling back in to the west. This resurgence
is likely due to an upper level jet maximum evident in water vapor
imagery moving toward Kentucky. The most recent hrrr model also showed
some light rain filling back in and moving across the area through
the morning have kept chance probability of precipitation in the forecast through
15z. Accumulations should remain light.

6z surface analysis indicates that the front remains stalled along
the Kentucky/Tennessee border. But as a large upper level low...currently
centered over Wyoming...slowly moves east...a surface low will form and
strengthen over the Central Plains. This will help pull the stalled
frontal boundary back to the north into our area...but how far north
is the question. As the front lifts north...rain and warmer
temperatures will move back into the area by this afternoon. Rain
will continue through this period especially for locations south of
the front. As the surface low and associated cold front approaches our
area Tuesday steadier rain will move into the area from west to east.

Due to the persistent showers and cloud cover...diurnal temperature
ranges will be limited. In fact...temperatures will start out steady
this morning but then should warm throughout this afternoon into
Tuesday before the cold front from the west pushes through Tuesday

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 405 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015

The extended begins very amplified...with a deep system spiraling
across the Great Lakes. Steady showers will be continuing across
southeastern Kentucky...but should be coming to an end from
northwest to southeast on Wednesday. Some minor problems along
creeks and streams will be possible...and a few river points
within the Cumberland River basin may be seeing some significant
rises. Will continue to highlight this threat within the severe weather potential statement.

Surface high pressure will gradually build in across the region
through Friday...and then looks to remain in the vicinity through
the weekend. The models are a little more muddled concerning the
upper levels...although there is a general consensus for a cutoff
low to develop somewhere across the central to southern
Appalachians...while another one develops across The Four Corners
region. The upper low close by may add a few more clouds through
the weekend...however with high pressure remaining in control at
the surface...dry weather looks to hold. Temperatures through the
period will average out to near seasonal normals.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 652 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015

A cold front will start to make its trek back north later today as
a low pressure system approaches the area. Before then...we should
see a brief lull in precipitation this morning into early afternoon so
have trended visibilities up while keeping ceilings near alternate
mins. Rain should then return from south to north as the front
lifts north...allowing ceilings and visible to once again trend down towards
LIFR conditions by tonight. Right on its heels...the surface low will
approach from the west early tomorrow morning and bring
substantial rain to the region. Therefore...have decided to carry
LIFR conditions through the end of the taf period. Winds will
generally be light and variable.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...jvm
long term...geogerian

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