Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
156 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016
issued at 156 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Updated to blend early afternoon observation into the forecast...without
any substantial changes.
Update issued at 1015 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Have updated to fine tune the timing of the next batch of precipitation
heading into the area from the west. Also blended observed temperatures
and sky conditions into the afternoon forecast.
Update issued at 836 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
The first batch of rain and snow showers will exit the area in the
next few hours...with additional activity already moving in from
the western half of the state. Temperatures have risen above
freezing for most locations at this point...so have gone ahead and
cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain in the
east. Snow has been mixing in with the rain showers this
morning...so have allowed for more of a snow mention through the
rest of the morning. Temperatures look to recover to the upper
30s to around 40...although depending on how quickly the showers
and thicker clouds move back in...these highs might be a bit
generous. Updates have been sent.
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 457 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Light rain is moving in from the west out ahead of a cold front.
Valley temperatures have responded in the past hour...however
based on the latest hrrr and rap runs...am still concerned for
some sheltered locations in the east potentially ending up with a
light glaze. As such...have hoisted a short fuse Winter Weather
Advisory until 9 am to cover this potential. If the better warming
trends continue like they have in the past hour...then this will
likely get dropped before expiring.
Once this first batch of rain departs off to the northeast...there
will be a lull in the activity...until a vigorous short wave
trough rotates through this afternoon. The lapse rates steepen up
quite a bit this afternoon...and have included some isolated
thunder...with the numerous rain showers that will be developing.
Temperatures will warm into the 40s for most today...with snow
showers likely holding off for most places until dusk or slightly
thereafter. The only exception to this will be the higher
elevations along the southeast as the column cools quicker aloft.
Light to occasionally moderate snow showers will kick in tonight
through Tuesday...as an upper level trough gradually deepens
across the Ohio Valley and several embedded waves rotate through
eastern Kentucky. Storm totals still look to range from 2 to 4
inches...with 4 to 6 inches for the highest terrain in the
Temperatures will be taking a nose dive through the period...with
readings falling below freezing by this evening...and then into
the 20s through Tuesday.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 618 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
Model solutions are quite similar early in the period...then but
diverge considerably during the last 72 hours or so of the
forecast. Broad mean trough will remain anchored over the eastern
half of the Continental U.S. Through the period as several impulses
rotate through the base. Main challenge for the extended will be
a late week shortwave that may produce another round of wintry
weather for the area. Confidence is low as both runs the 0z European model (ecmwf)
and GFS have diverged from their respective solutions of 24 hour
back. The 0/06z GFS has trended faster...much weaker and further
south with this system as it tracks through the southeastern
Continental U.S....hardly producing any sensible weather. The 0z European model (ecmwf) is
slower and stronger with this system...carrying a deepening surface
wave further north across the Tennessee Valley. Consequently the European model (ecmwf)
advertises a more favorable path for the potential of significant
snowfall and currently advertises such. However...overall
confidence will continue to run low with either solution until
there is better run to run continuity and agreement.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 121 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016
A band of convective precipitation is passing eastward through the
region early this afternoon...bringing a quick drop to IFR
conditions in snow. East of this band...conditions were generally
VFR. Additional snow showers will develop late in the day and
this evening...and then continue at times through the end of the
period. This will create MVFR conditions...and IFR at
times...lasting through the end of the period.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for kyz044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for kyz088-118-
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am EST
Wednesday for kyz104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for kyz087.