Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
343 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 343 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

The latest surface map features high pressure across the Mississippi
Valley...with a cold front pushing off the eastern Seaboard.
Aloft...a trough axis is dropping southeast across the Appalachians...
with strong subsidence occurring in its wake.

Stratocu is thinning quickly across eastern Kentucky in response to
this subsidence and expect skies to clear out totally by dusk. As the
high pressure conglomerates more across the Ohio Valley tonight...
allowing for more calm winds...radiative cooling will be near ideal.
Lows in the low to middle 40s still look good...with some dense fog
scrunched down in the river valleys.

Tuesday will feature a sunny day once the valley fog Burns off. Highs
look to top out a touch warmer compared to today...generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Clear skies will continue to reign across the
area Tuesday night...with lows returning to the 40s for the
valleys...while the ridges stay up a bit more...generally around the
50 degree mark.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 343 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A strong upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into next weekend. Surface high pressure will remain strong over the
region...with winds both at the surface and aloft pulling dry and
cool air in from Canada. The loss of nearly wind flow at both the
surface and aloft will lead to air mass modification and rising
temperatures throughout the extended. It now looks like the ridge
may strengthen heading through next weekend...likely keeping the
area dry and mild. The next chance of rain may arrive sometime early
to the middle part of next week as some kind of tropical disturbance
pushes north into the middle Mississippi River valley. Latest European model (ecmwf)
continues to slow down the progression of this its
possible rain chances may get pushed back even further.
Regardless...any system that tracks north will likely keep US in
southeasterly downsloping initially there is going to be
lots of dry air to overcome prior to any precipitation.
Thus...precipitation chances will remain in the slight chance


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 215 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Low VFR/MVFR ceilings will scatter out across southeastern Kentucky
over the next few hours. Skies will clear out tonight...with some
LIFR or worse fog forming in the deeper river valleys. Will continue
to allow for a touch of residual fog at sme and loz...but confidence
remains low that it will be worse than that with light northeast flow
in place. Once the fog Burns off between 12 and 14z...skies will
clear out once again as high pressure maintains control. Winds will
remain around 5 kts or less...generally out of the NE and east-northeast.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...geogerian

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations