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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
417 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 336 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Weather pattern during the short term will continue to be driven by
a cut off low that will sink southeast from WV to the Seaboard of Virginia and
NC by this afternoon...before transitioning to a more NE
direction...along the Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday.
Eastern Kentucky will find itself on the backside of this low...with
heights expected to build through the short term forecast as a
shallow ridging pattern tries to push eastward into the region.
Moisture will continue to wrap around this low...and ride along northwest
flow into the appalachian region. This moisture will lead to
continued cloud cover across the NE/rn most portion of the County Warning Area...and
the potential for some upslope induced shower development in the far
east. Given the latest model runs the eastward progression to the
Atlantic coast today could result in enough movement to keep these
rain shower chances just along Pike County and points eastward
outside of our County Warning Area.

Meanwhile...this set up will allow for a strong pull of winds from
the north...especially in the middle and upper levels. In fact...latest
European model (ecmwf) continues to support a strong jet streak oriented from north
to south to move eastward across eastern Kentucky this morning and into
the day today. What this will translate to...besides high winds
aloft...is a strong pull of Canadian temperatures southwards and
into the region. Temperature forecast during the short term will be
much dependent on the cloud cover...but generally expect much cooler
than normal temperatures today...warming slightly by tomorrow..and the
potential of frost development overnight tonight.

There has been talk between the offices concerning whether or not to
go ahead and issue a frost advisory for tomorrow night. General
consensus was to pass along to the day shifts and let them decide if
one is needed or not. At this point...after adding in frost for
locations that will see temperatures 37 degrees or less...we still seem to
be a bit limited on coverage...with the best potential in the far
north...far south...and in valley locations. However...adding in
frost for areas expecting 38 degrees and under...would put much of
the area in patchy/areal coverage and matched up better with
neighboring offices. Weighing both situations...decided to stick
with including frost for areas expected to see 37 degrees or less
overnight in spite of sparser coverage...since 38 degrees seemed to
be pushing the limits of being too warm for ice to form.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 417 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Ridging at the surface and aloft should be present as the period
starts...with uneventful weather. A shortwave trough will be heading in
from the northwest...and passing over on Friday or Friday evening. Some
model runs have occasionally shown some light precipitation with this
feature...but latest runs are dry...and a dry forecast will continue
to be used. Once this moves past...we can expect benign northwest flow
aloft with dry air in place. Ridging at the surface and aloft should
once again pass east over the region during the weekend...with dry
weather continuing at least through Monday. The next cold front is
expected to be approaching Kentucky from the west or northwest late Tuesday...but
any precipitation associated with it will likely hold off until after this
forecast period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 153 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

A stratocu deck continues to plague eastern Kentucky under generally
northerly flow. Ceiling readings for this cloud cover continue to range
from MVFR to VFR...but per the latest model soundings and
guidance...still expect some ceiling lowering late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. Went with MVFR ceilings around 10z in most locations...ranging
from 1 to 3kt feet above ground level. Given the location of the existing cloud
cover...expect lower ceilings to hang around the far east longer /I.E.
Ksjs/ and scatter out in the southwest faster this morning. Once this
occurs...VFR conditions should be expected for the remainder of the
day under dry skies. Late tonight...another round of borderline MVFR
ceilings will be likely. Winds during the taf period will range from the
north-northwest to the north-northeast at generally around 10 knots or less.



&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...jmw
long term...hal
aviation...jmw

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