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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
900 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

issued at 900 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Short term forecast is on track. Only made minor adjustments to
temperatures to better reflect current observations.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 319 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Basically a temperature forecast for the short term. Models are in good
agreement through the period. Skies are clearing out behind an
exiting middle/upper level disturbance which is moving to the southeast
of the area late this afternoon. Shortwave ridging will build in
temporarily overnight before another disturbance and weak surface frontal
boundary move into the area Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase
Saturday and this system may be strong enough to generate a few
sprinkles though went totally dry in the zones and grids for now.
From there our weather remains dry into Sunday morning. Expecting
some patchy fog overnight...mainly in our river valleys. Inherited
some excellent temperature grids. Nudging to a blend of model
guidance provided very minor changes.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 319 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Very warm conditions will be the weather story as we move into the
early part of next week. A few record highs could be in jeopardy
early in the week. For reference...record highs for 10/27 are 83 at
Jackson and 81 at London. Record highs for 10/28 are 78 at Jackson
and 84 at London. Heights will continue to rise late in the weekend
and into Monday in advance of an upper trough moving out of The
Rockies and into the plains. As the upper trough moves east surface
low pressure will advance into the western lakes by Tuesday. A
sheared cold front trailing from the low looks to move across Kentucky
Tuesday night...with good model agreement on this scenario.
Instability continues to look very limited and will follow previous
forecast thinking and leave thunder out of the forecast with this
system...but continue with the fairly high shower chances Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

After the passage of this first cold front focus shifts to the
approach of a second upper trough and associated surface low and
cold front for the latter part of the week. This system looks to
bring rain chances for late next week and then introduce the coldest
air of the season for next weekend...with the 12z GFS now coming
into line with the 00z European model (ecmwf) on this idea. It is very possible we
could experience a killing freeze next weekend...which is just
beyond the time frame of the current forecast period.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 740 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Clear skies are the rule across eastern Kentucky tonight. Expecting
some patchy valley fog to form tonight down in the valleys...however
not expecting to see anything at the taf stations. Tomorrow during
the day...clouds will be on the increase with cirrus then some middle
clouds moving into the area. A weak frontal system is expected to move
across the area...however VFR should prevail across the Coal fields.
Some virga or sprinkles is an outside possibility...however should
not effect flight operations.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...ray
long term...sbh

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