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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
402 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 333 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Current conditions across the area features westerly flow at the
surface with high pressure centered over the middle MS river valleys
and slowly pushing east. Winds gusting around 20 miles per hour across much
of the will begin to see a slackening of the gradient and winds
becoming light heading into tonight. By tonight...high pressure
and clear skies will be in place. Expect a Ridge Valley split
tonight with a difference of 7 degrees in the deeper valleys of
northeast Kentucky. Towards later tonight...southwest winds should
be on the increase as a weak cold front will begin to move into
the area and associated cloud cover. With this...would expect no
frost...or very little to develop later tonight as well as no fog.

Heading into the day on Tuesday...models have been a bit
inconsistent on the threat of showers in eastern Kentucky Tuesday
afternoon. However with the amount of instability the GFS sounding
have been showing and the sref showing some quantitative precipitation forecast in the far east
and south...have put some showers back into the forecast for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. At this point...do not think enough
moisture will be available for some thunder but a few may pop up
near the Tennessee border and south. Gradient with this front looks to
be a bit strong with some west to southwest winds gusting to near
30 miles per hour in the afternoon. In addition...the warm southwest flow
will assist in maximum temperatures rising to around 70 in a few places.

The progressive upper level flow will push this disturbance off to
the east as well with clearing skies expected late Tuesday night
and temperatures falling into the upper 30s in a few places.
Overall a dry short term forecast is expected with a small chance
of precipitation on Tuesday afternoon.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 401 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015

The extended will feature a variable weather pattern...with multiple
troughs...shortwaves...and ridges impacting the Ohio River valley.
Overall...expect rather zonal flow to be the backdrop...with
generally westerly flow aloft and seasonable temperatures staying in
place through the duration of the extended.

To start out the period...during the day Wednesday...upper level
ridging and surface high pressure will be at play. Northwest flow will
allow slightly cooler but dry air to infiltrate the state...with
afternoon temperatures expected to range from the low to upper 60s. This
high pressure system will quickly shift sewrd during the evening as
upper level shortwave pushes a surface low pressure system eastward
across south central Canada. Winds will shift to a more srly
direction in the evening in response to the exiting high pressure
system and return flow...allowing higher dew points to begin
filtering into the region and temperatures to warm throughout the
day Thursday. In fact...temperatures will likely top out well above
70 degrees across most of the County Warning Area by the afternoon. The low pressure
system will finally reach just north of Lake Superior Thursday
morning...dragging a long cold front with it. If models hold
true...expect the cold front to reach the Ohio River valley by 0z
Friday...before stalling out and becoming nearly stationary.

After a day of warm...moist...southerly flow...expect showers and
potential thunderstorms to begin popping up throughout the day on
Thursday...increasing in coverage and quantitative precipitation forecast as the front reaches the
Ohio Thursday night and through the day Friday. There is some decent
wind shear through this entire period...both directional and speed
sheer...but best overall factors...including cape and Li/S will line
up during the day Friday...when several smaller surface low pressure
systems traverse Kentucky /attached to another smaller upper level
shortwave/...daytime heating is in play...and the surface front
remains nearly stationary just to our NE...providing a good amount
of lift.

A quick shift to the east with the upper level shortwave Friday
evening will pull the front through the region in the matter a few
hours...with a fast transition to more stable and colder nearly air
directly behind as yet another high pressure system transitions into
the region. Precipitation will quickly exit or dissipate...and clouds
lesson late Friday night. This colder flow will make for a
considerable drop in temperatures. Saturday morning temperatures will fall
to the low 40s as skies quickly clear out and flow is light from the
north. Daytime temperatures Saturday are only expected to reach the low
to middle 50s. This trend will continue into Sunday...before the high
exits...return southerly flow enters once more...and temperatures
begin to warm Sunday afternoon and into the day Monday. Another
system moving across the Continental U.S. Could bring yet another chance for
instability and precipitation by Monday as well.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 129 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015

High pressure will continue to move through the area this evening
with mainly clear skies expected. A weak cold front will pass by
the area with the bulk of the clouds and rain to the northeast.
This will allow for just some middle level cloud cover across the
area tomorrow. Winds will be gusting to 15 knots this evening
before decreasing and becoming light tonight. As the cold front
passes through...expect winds to switch to the southwest tomorrow
and gust up to 20 knots at times. Otherwise...a VFR forecast is
expected.

&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...shallenberger
long term...jmw
aviation...shallenberger

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