Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
308 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 308 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015

Surface high pressure passing over the region tonight into Saturday
will provide mostly clear skies and lighter winds.

The elements for a late weekend weather system will be coming
together over the western Continental U.S. On Saturday...with warm/moist air
spreading northward on isentropic lift over the Great Plains during
the day. High clouds from this will be carried eastward and ride over
an upper level ridge to bring US increasing clouds in the afternoon.
The surface low will begin to take shape on Saturday night and should
be over Missouri by 12z Sunday. Models have come into better
agreement concerning this system...and now point to a more northerly
track than what looked probable in earlier model runs. This will be
dealt with in more detail in the long term discussion. This trend in
the models results in warm air advection setting in on Saturday
night...and most of the precipitation on Saturday night being to our north and
northwest. Will only carry 20-40 percent probability of precipitation in the jkl forecast area. Have
used precipitation type of snow for most of the area...with rain/snow mix
in our SW. Temperatures in soundings may support more in the way of rain.
However... the low levels are not saturated in the soundings. If
precipitation makes it to the ground...would expect some evaporational
cooling to allow snow.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 308 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015

A long term discussion will be issued shortly.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 101 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015

MVFR ceilings may linger early in the period near the Virginia border.
Otherwise...VFR is expected through the period. Northwest winds gusting
between 15 and 20 kts will die down by evening...with light winds
expected for the remainder of the period.



&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...hal
long term...jmw
aviation...hal

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations