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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
424 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 300 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Quiet weather is on tap in the short term. A ridge of high
pressure will dry cooler than normal weather to eastern Kentucky
today and tomorrow. High temperatures each day are expected to top
out in the low to middle 60s. Overnight lows will be a bit chilly as
well...with lows dropping to around 40 on area ridges...and into
the middle 30s in the deeper most sheltered valleys. There is also a
chance we may see some patchy frost in our deeper northeastern
valleys Tuesday morning...but nothing that should cause any
issues. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be on tap during
the day time periods today and Tuesday.

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 424 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Model trends are pointing toward another damp period coming
up...especially for our southeast counties. A closed low
currently along the nm/Texas border will move slowly east early this
week...while an associated surface low moves east along the Gulf
Coast. The northern fringe of the precipitation with the system is
expected to move across southern Kentucky from Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At midweek...a northern stream closed upper low is
forecast to drop south over the Great Lakes. The southern stream
system should merge/phase with it...resulting in a substantial
upper level low tracking from Kentucky slowly eastward off the coast in
the later part of the week. Meanwhile...the southern surface low
turns northward along the East Coast and strengthens considerably.
We remain along the western edge of the precipitation with the developing
system...possibly into Friday. At this time...only pesky light
rain is foreseen. The upper trough and cloud cover should result
in chilly temperatures by late April standards. The system pulls
out to the east before the weekend arrives and leaves US with a
warming trend and drier weather. Models generate some light precipitation
on Sunday from what appears to be a dying convective system
originating in a warm air advection regime over Missouri and
heading east into a more stable environment. Confidence in this
scenario is low at this time...and have opted for sub-20 percent
probability of precipitation on Sunday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 135 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 to 36 hours with
light and variable winds overnight. Light northeast winds will
develop today with some stratocumulus clouds building southward
through the day...but cloud heights will remain above 5k feet.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Arkansas
long term...hal

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