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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
658 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

issued at 658 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

An area of steadier rainfall has moved into the area early this
morning ahead of the cold front currently located near lmk. This
front will continue its eastward trek into our area this
morning and then slow down as it reaches the eastern edge of Kentucky.
This will allow light to moderate rainfall area-wide for most of
the day. That being said...forecast remains on track. Did a quick
refresh to the hourly grids. Sent updates to ndfd and web servers.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 315 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Current surface analysis shows a warm frontal boundary draped across
eastern Kentucky with overrunning precipitation in the area. This rainfall
has been persistent over the past several hours and shows no sign of
letting up as the rain associated with the approaching cold front is
right on the doorstep. So there might be a brief break in the
steadier precipitation from the SW but shouldn/T last for long.

The cold front will move towards eastern Kentucky this morning as a
surface low tracks northwest of our area. Rainfall along and ahead of
the front will impact the area today into the evening hours. The
rainfall could be heavy enough to lead to ponding on roadways. And
due to the prolonged period of rainfall...on top of rainfall we have
received over the past few days...a few streams or creeks could
near bankfull during the day...especially in the south. The front
will slow down as it exits our area tonight...and this would allow
showers to linger through Wednesday morning in the southeast part
of the forecast area. The remainder of Wednesday will feature dry
conditions with mostly cloudy skies as the upper level trough
passes through the Ohio Valley.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the 50s through this
evening then gradually drop into the 40s by Wednesday as colder air
Ushers in behind the front.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 355 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

A trough axis will be swinging through the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night...with colder air advecting into the region. The models
have trended a bit more moist as the column have
included a few flurries/sprinkles Wednesday night as there may be
a small window of opportunity to mix in a few flakes. Dry weather
will then take hold for Thursday and Friday...with temperatures
averaging a bit below normal. Friday morning looks to be the
coolest morning...with some middle 20s in the cooler valleys

A blocky pattern then sets up east of The Rockies through the an upper level low cuts off near The Four
Corners region...while another low separates from the main flow
across the southern Appalachians. The model agreement deteriorates
more towards early next this pattern gradually breaks
down and the flow becomes more progressive. For now...have favored
a slower outcome...which will keep dry weather across eastern
Kentucky through Monday...with surface high pressure remaining
nearby. Below normal readings will gradually modify back to near
or just above normal by early next week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 655 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

As a cold front approaches the area from the west this
morning...widespread rain has moved in. This swath of steadier
rain should move through the area during the morning into the
afternoon hours with light showers and drizzle expected behind it.
Due to the varying rain intensity...variable ceilings and visibility
exist across the taf sites. This has led to a tricky forecast but
decided to hedge on the side of caution especially since lamp
guidance keeps IFR to LIFR conditions through the taf period. Also
decided to introduce fog after 00z across the taf sites since the
ground will be very moist Post-rainfall. Winds will generally
remain 10kt or less.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...jvm
long term...geogerian

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