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National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
155 PM EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

issued at 155 PM EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Extended the Flood Watch through tonight given the development
upstream over western Kentucky. It looks like we can expected
showers and storms to continue to roll across the area well
into this evening and overnight. Models Arkansas suggesting things
quieting down late the watch may be able to be let go
earlier...but kept some wiggle room in there by running it through
8 am tomorrow morning. Precipitable waters remain high through the night and with
the boundary over the storms will continue to be a
threat through tonight.

Update issued at 1139 am EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Updated to bring up probability of precipitation across the south this morning with
ongoing wave pushing across the area and locally heavy rainfall.
It does look like activity may fill in back to the north through
the course of the afternoon or will stick with higher
probability of precipitation during this time. Locally heavy rain will continue along and
south of Highway 80 into the afternoon.

Update issued at 809 am EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Updated to blend morning observation into the forecast grids.


Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 422 am EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have persisted overnight. They
have been slow moving...backbuilding...and efficient rain
producers...with a threat of localized flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect. The bigger picture shows the precipitation being
supported by a shortwave trough moving through the Ohio
Valley...overtop of a low pressure wave on a surface frontal
boundary. The shortwave and surface low will move slowly east and
a trailing cold front will make its way southeast into the
Appalachians today into Saturday. With daytime
destabilization...renewed development of thunderstorms should
occur this afternoon and last into tonight...with a continuing
risk of excessive rainfall. Drier air slowly making its way in
from northwest to southeast behind the system will bring an overall diminishing
trend to precipitation tonight and Saturday.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 422 am EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Eastern Kentucky will continue to see unsettled weather through the
weekend with rain and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and
evening hours. This is mainly due to an area of low pressure that
will slowly push eastward out of eastern Kentucky late on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain below normal for the weekend due to the
cloud cover and precipitation that will linger. By Monday...the
upper level trough that has been dominating the weather across the
eastern Continental U.S. Will finally flatten out... decreasing the chances for
precipitation...though not completely ruling them out. Monday might
be one of the driest days...before the next shortwave makes its way
to the region. This shortwave will dive across the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley region by Tuesday into Wednesday...with another front
dropping into central/eastern Kentucky. The front appears to stall
out over Kentucky for the remainder of the week...leading to
rain/thunderstorm chances each day. Temperatures will generally
remain in the lower 80s...which is slightly below normal. But with
the humidity certainly will feel warmer than it
really is.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 155 PM EDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Skies will return to VFR this afternoon. However...much like the
past few days...IFR ceilings/visibilities will return tonight as the
lower levels saturate back up. Some improvement is expected
tomorrow...but not likely until the afternoon again.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for kyz044-050>052-



short term...hal
long term...jvm

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