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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
1052 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

issued at 1052 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

Mainly light snow with small flakes being observed over much of
eastern Kentucky presently. There is an enhanced area of snow
showers across southeast Kentucky with likely larger dendrites
allowing for better snowfall accumulations. A report out of Bell
County earlier already had 0.5 inches of snow and that was before
the enhanced area of snow went over. With this in mind...have
increased snow amounts in southeast Kentucky. Rest of the area
will see very slow snowfall accumulations given the flake size.
However...areas of enhancements will remain possible through
daybreak as there remains plenty of moisture lingering over the
area. Favored areas will be areas where west flow pushes up
against the higher terrain helping to spawn more intense showers.
Updated probability of precipitation/weather to highlight current enhanced area of
snowfall. Better band of snow is setting up to the north where
warnings are being issues north of the Ohio River. This activity
should stay north through the overnight hours.

Update issued at 808 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

Band of more intense snow showers will exit to the east in the
next hour. Otherwise...lots of lighter snow shower activity
continues across the region and will continue through the
overnight hours. A more concentrated band of snowfall is looking
more likely to set up just to our north...keeping it out of
eastern Kentucky overnight. With this said...updated snowfall
amounts to lower them some in the north. Generally speaking given
the activity out there presently...most areas should stay at or
under an inch overnight. Regardless...temperatures continue to
fall below freezing and will lead to some slick spots developing


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 437 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

A relative lull in showers was making its way east across the
region late this afternoon. A greater concentration of showers was
making its way in from the west. The showers were mixed rain and
snow...with the snow more likely in the heavier precipitation. As
temperatures fall early this evening...precipitation will become
all snow and bring lasting accumulation.

Models are in agreement for the short term period. A nearly
stacked low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes.
It will bring deep moisture with upslope flow in cold air
advection across the Great Lakes...with these factors resulting a
prolonged period of light snow and snow showers. Aside from some
of the brief heavier snow showers...accumulation rates will not be
exceptional...but over the course of time...most areas will see 1
to 4 inches of snow. The lowest amounts will generally be in the
southwest...and the greatest in the northeast and at high
elevations in the southeast. A few of the higher elevations in the
southeast could see localized amounts around 6 inches.

As the upper level low start to weaken and the system lifts out to
the northeast...snow will start to taper off from southwest to
northeast on Tuesday night.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 437 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

Broad cyclonic flow will begin pulling east through the first part
of the period. This will keep snow showers and flurries in the
forecast for a good portion of eastern Kentucky. The flow will also have a
chance of tapping into some moisture from the Great Lakes for a
period of this time. Snow showers are expected to taper from west to
east though the day on Wednesday into Wednesday Canadian
high pressure noses in from the northwest. While barrage of snow
showers comes to a end we are still looking at cold temperatures
with lows dropping into the teens and single digits...highs will not
make it above freezing through at least Thursday. We see more
disagreements model wise by the end of the week...and this will lead
to more forecast uncertainty in relation to upper level disturbance
for Friday and Friday night. The 12z European model (ecmwf) is much more robust with
this upper level wave bringing more substantial precipitation and a better
potential for accumulating snow...however will say it has backed off
some from the previous 00z run in relation to quantitative precipitation forecast. The GFS is on the
other extreme and keeps it dry. Right now given the uncertainty will
stick to the model blend and this does put chance probability of precipitation in the
forecast. Behind this another very strong surface high and base of
upper level low moves south and east into the region this
weekend...while the models disagree on the exact placement of the
high 850 mb temperatures look drop into the negative 20 range. Right now
looks reasonable to have temperatures easily dropping into the single digits
Saturday night. Another system looks to drop south early next
week...right now will stick with blend through this period as well.
That will bring at least chance probability of precipitation across eastern Kentucky on Monday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 808 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

A deep trough will remain anchored over the region through
midweek...keeping MVFR (and at times ifr) ceilings in place across
eastern Kentucky. In addition...some light snow showers will
continue into Wednesday. Sustained winds between 5 and 10 knots
should continue with gusts up to 20 knots at times.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for kyz044-

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am EST Wednesday for kyz087-088-



short term...hal

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