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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
940 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

issued at 940 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Made just minor updates to the forecast grids in light of latest
observation and 18z model runs. There is no substantial change to the
overall forecast.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 300 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Not much change is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours as the
upper level low continues to slowly shift east across the
Appalachians. This will likely keep the clouds around through
tonight. This will yield another night of stratus build down with
some fog pushing back onto the ridges late tonight. Clouds will
hold tough again on Wednesday and will likely keep highs on the
cool side. Plan to go well under guidance again...and would not be
surprised to see temperatures similar to the ones we saw
today...perhaps just a few degrees warmer. While a few showers
could pop up Wednesday afternoon...there again...lack of
instability could limit aerial coverage of showers with more
isolated coverage. Models have been handling the instability...
temperatures...and cloud cover its hard to put Faith
on any precipitation forecast from a model. For now...going to go
with another cloudy night for Wednesday night and assume clouds
hang on. This would put lows back into the 50s for another night.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 300 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

The stubborn upper level low which has been controlling our weather
will be drifting southeast at the start of this forecast period. It
will eventually open up and drift east off the Atlantic coast on
Friday...relinquishing control of our weather. the
upper flow becomes more northwesterly on Friday with ridging
building in the plains...we will see a short wave dive southeast
towards the Ohio Valley. At the surface a cold front will drop towards
the region Friday night...and then likely stall out somewhere to our
south by Saturday night. By the end of the weekend another wave will
be working its way towards the Ohio Valley with the front lifting back
north as a warm front...followed by yet another cold front early
next week. Confidence on movement of the upper low currently
affecting our weather is good...but timing on the individual short
waves and surface features in what appears to be a fairly active
weather pattern from this weekend into early next week is below
average. The overall pattern requires keeping shower and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast from the end of this week into
next week. Temperatures will warm as the upper low loses its grip on
our weather.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 940 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Conditions were largely MVFR at the start of the period. Further
deterioration is expected a little before dawn...with some taf
sites possible reaching Airport minimums. Ceilings will again rise
during the day Wednesday...with the low clouds possibly breaking
up in some locations. However...models did not handle things well
on Tuesday...and with the upper low responsible for the foul
conditions still present...forecast confidence is low. At this
point...the official forecast is more pessimistic than models
suggest on Wednesday.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...kas
long term...sbh

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