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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
420 am EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 420 am EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

The cold front which produced widespread convection yesterday will
continue to push off southeast of the region through the morning hours. As
it does...drier northerly air will filter into the region. Given the
unseasonable upper level troughing pattern continuing to push
southward from Canada across the eastern Continental U.S....this northerly air
will be much colder than normal. High temperatures today are only expected
to reach the low and middle 70s. The main forecast concern today will be
wrap around moisture from the surface low pressure system and upper
level shortwave...both of which are now moving into the New England
states. All models are in very good agreement that some moisture will
push into NE and Erly sections of the County Warning Area...but the extent of these
showers and whether they will be mainly isolated or scattered is still a
little uncertain. Given the lack of instability as high pressure
moves overhead...expect this to be more of a rain shower event. And
given the light amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast...expect the impacts to be very
minimal across the region.

By tonight...the low will continue to track northward along the
Canadian coastline. The upper level trough will keep unseasonably
cool temperatures across the area. This...coupled with clear skies and an
excellent radiational cooling set up...should be enough to drop lows
into the middle 50s overnight. Expect showers to briefly come to an end
during the evening hours. However...with lingering low level
moisture...upslope flow...and upper level support from the longwave
trough...models are pointing at yet another batch of isl to scattered
showers developing across far eastern Kentucky on Tuesday as well. Once
again...quantitative precipitation forecast values are very light and instability is weak at
best...so there is very little concern for impacts with these
showers. Highs will recover little Thursday...remaining in the middle
70s with low humidity values.

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 410 am EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

The models remain in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to control across the Continental U.S. Through the end of the week.
Ridging will remain anchored across the western Continental U.S....while a
persistent trough reigns in the eastern Continental U.S..

Drier and cooler weather can be expected across eastern Kentucky
through Thursday night...as some temporary dampening of the eastern
Continental U.S. Trough takes place...allowing for broad surface high pressure
to set up across the Ohio Valley. The trough will then reassert
itself from Friday Onward...with the threat of diurnally influenced
convection returning across the area.

Highs will gradually modify from the 70s mid-week...to the lower 80s
by the end of the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 216 am EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Thunderstorms and rain has finally moved out of eastern Kentucky and dry conditions should
prevail through the remainder of the night. The cold front is also
traversing eastern Kentucky at the moment...with much lower dew points
filtering in behind. This...along with some decent prevailing
winds...should eliminate the threat for fog at most taf sites. Kjkl
is currently the exception...as this site received heavy rains just
recently and lingering low level moisture has turned into ground fog
near the Airport. A little uncertain as to how long the fog will
stick around...but expect it to mix out at some point tonight. For
tomorrow...skies will be scattered to broken VFR with some higher wind gusts
possible during the afternoon at kloz...ksme...and possibly ksjs.
There is the potential that some of the taf sites could see some
light rain showers in the afternoon...but little to no impacts are
expected. And while some light br development is possible tomorrow
night...it should occur after the end of the taf period. As a
result...chose to leave both the mention of rain and fog out for
tomorrow/tomorrow night.



&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...jmw
long term...geogerian
aviation...jmw

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