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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
348 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 340 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015

As of middle afternoon...a middle level low was centered over the
Cumberland Valley region. Showers persist across the region and a
few thunderstorms and heavier showers have developed...especially
across the Big Sandy region and in the Somerset vicinity. These
slow moving showers and storms are producing heavy rainfall rates.

The middle level low will gradually meander northeast this evening
and tonight toward the NE Kentucky/western WV/southern Ohio area. This middle
level low will gradually depart into the middle and upper Ohio Valley
regions through the end of the period. At the same time...a trough
will move from the plains states and enter the Great Lakes region
through the end of the period. An associated surface cold front will
move into the central Great Lakes and approach the lower Ohio Valley
region late in the period.

The loss of daytime heating should lead to an overall decrease in
coverage of convection tonight as the middle level system moves
northeast across the area. Until then...slow moving showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will remain a threat and
have opted to keep the Flash Flood Watch in effect as is at this
point. Some stratus build down and fog development...possibly
dense is anticipated in the wake of the showers and storms
overnight with the fog not being confined to the valleys.

The threat for showers and a few storms will linger into Monday
mainly across the eastern part of the area. A relative lull in
precipitation chances is expected by late Monday afternoon or evening
into much of Monday night in between the departing middle level low
and the approaching. In the warm sector...convection cannot be
ruled out toward the end of the period late Monday night.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 300 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015

Upper level ridge is prognosticated to build westward into the deep
south and Southern Plains during the period. The ridge looks to
remain rather flat with several disturbances moving across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley just to the north of its core. At the
surface...a cold front will meander around to our north throughout
the period. The close proximity of the front will necessitate a
daily mention of showers and thunderstorms...with the highest rain
chances across our northern counties. Temperatures will moderate
under the influence of the developing ridge. Forecast highs were
nudged upward into the muggy middle and upper 80s toward the end of
the work week and into the weekend with a general consensus in the
morning model runs for a stronger ridge.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 125 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015

Conditions were highly variable across the region at the start of
the period...ranging from if to VFR at the taf sites. The best
conditions were generally across the far northwest and in between bands
of showers. Bands of showers and some thunderstorms will bring
MVFR to IFR conditions with periods near or below Airport mins
possible through 0z. Coverage of convection should diminish
somewhat overnight...but stratus build down and or fog
development should lead to a few to several hours of IFR at the
taf sites between 5z and 13z. Ceilings should lift and visible improve for
MVFR to VFR late in the period due to daytime mixing as the upper
level system departs.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for kyz050>052-

Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for kyz087-088-107-109-



long term...Abe

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