Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
652 am EST Friday Feb 27 2015

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 314 am EST Friday Feb 27 2015

Current conditions across eastern Kentucky feature the last push
of some flurries and some light snow showers through the area.
This activity has been responsible for some fluffy accumulations
across the area of a half an inch at the very most in some areas.
With temperatures in the teens dropping through the area and
limited moisture with dew points in the single digits...have been
dealing with some 20 to 1 snow ratios. Upstream...some moisture
continues to advect off of Lake Michigan but this will not make it
down to our area. With that said...reflectivities coming to a fine
end in our northwest counties will be the end of the activity as
head into the day after dawn. The terrain in the east will be
enough to squeeze some prolonged flurries possible into midday but
that will be the end of the activity. That said...will be letting
the Special Weather Statement fall off at 5am.

Heading into the day...the drier northwest flow and subsidence
moving in will eat away at the sky cover into the day allowing
some heating into the afternoon and temperatures will rebound into
the upper 20s and even near 30 in the south. The core of the air
mass will pass through tonight as some of the Bluegrass areas may
see near zero for lows before temperatures rise in earnest into
the day on Saturday. In fact...the next shortwave will develop in
the Southern Plains and moving east through the day on Saturday.
Saturday morning...850 southwest flow will be developing into the
morning hours with downslope flow at the surface such that temperatures
will likely be rising before dawn in some areas.

By Saturday afternoon...models seem to have trouble handling this
change in the pattern but dew points already responding into the
middle 20s by Saturday afternoon is quite impressive given how dry
this Arctic airmass was. Temperatures should rebound from the
teens and single digits into the lower to upper 30s Saturday for
highs. In fact...overrunning precipitation by Saturday evening will
already be developing into southern in at this time. This seems
pretty quick in development but the NAM and the sref seem to be on
board with this arrival time into these areas.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 340 am EST Friday Feb 27 2015

A very period in store in the extended. The period will actually
start off fairly a warm frontal boundary meanders about
along the Ohio River. Snow showers will begin to move into the
area as the warm front sags south and interacts with below
freezing air that will already be in place. The snow showers will
change to rain showers and quickly overspread the area Sunday and
Sunday night as the cold front makes its way across the area and
warm air surges north ahead of the boundary. The rain could be
heavy times Sunday night and Monday. Once the initial cold front
exits the area late in the day on Monday...a lull in the
precipitation is a ridge of high pressure is prognosticated
to settle over the area for about 10 hours. After this short
respite...another round of rain and snow showers is expected as a
warm front moves across the area from the south. The precipitation
should change over to all rain by middle morning on warm
Gulf air pushes back into the area and overrides the warm front.
The rain is expected to become widespread during the afternoon and
hours on Tuesday and throughout the another cold
front pushes slowly across the area. This round of moderate to
heavy rain is forecast to persist through early Wednesday evening
before finally letting up. The rain could be heavy at
times...creating the potential for localized flooding. Hydro
issues will also be possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday widespread rain will melt the existing snow
pack...which will create a large amount of runoff that will make
its way into area creeks and streams. This additional water will
likely lead to significant rises on area rivers as well.

A round of scattered snow showers is then expected to move in
behind the departing cold front late Wednesday night and Thursday colder air filters in from the west and northwest.
Only light accumulations are possible. The precipitation should
finally come to an end late Thursday night. The good news is that
the low temperatures we are expecting next week will not be
anywhere near as cold as what we have experienced that past two
weeks. The first couple of days of the extended are forecast to
feature only slightly below normal temperatures...with lows on
Sunday morning bottoming out in the middle to upper 20s across the
area. Highs on Sunday should be able to climb well into the 40s
across the area as southerly flow begins to dominate the area. The
warm up is expected to continue on Tuesday and Wednesday...with
the Mercury forecast to top out in the middle to upper 50s around
eastern Kentucky. A few locations in our far southwest may even
reach 60 degrees on Tuesday. The passage of a cold front will
bring another shot of colder air into the region by midweek...with
highs on Thursday and Friday only expected to maximum out in the middle
to upper 30s. After lows in the 40s Tuesday night...colder air
will filter into the region for a few days. Low temperatures
Thursday night could conceivable fall into the middle to upper teens
in the west to northwest flow that will become established behind
yet another dearly departed cold front.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 652 am EST Friday Feb 27 2015

Expect flurries and a few snow showers to end through the morning
hours. Winds will generally be out of the north with some gusts
at times to 15 knots becoming lighter into the day with a
lessening gradient. By midday...the MVFR ceilings will finally lift
and VFR conditions should prevail through the rest of the taf


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...shallenberger
long term...Arkansas

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations