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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
734 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

issued at 734 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A pretty straight forward forecast for the next 36 hours with mostly
clear skies...light winds...and much cooler than normal temperatures
on tap for eastern Kentucky. The text forecast product was in good
shape with no changes made there at all. The latest observation data was
ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends with no
other changes needed there.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 343 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

The latest surface map features high pressure across the Mississippi
Valley...with a cold front pushing off the eastern Seaboard.
Aloft...a trough axis is dropping southeast across the Appalachians...
with strong subsidence occurring in its wake.

Stratocu is thinning quickly across eastern Kentucky in response to
this subsidence and expect skies to clear out totally by dusk. As the
high pressure conglomerates more across the Ohio Valley tonight...
allowing for more calm winds...radiative cooling will be near ideal.
Lows in the low to middle 40s still look good...with some dense fog
scrunched down in the river valleys.

Tuesday will feature a sunny day once the valley fog Burns off. Highs
look to top out a touch warmer compared to today...generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Clear skies will continue to reign across the
area Tuesday night...with lows returning to the 40s for the
valleys...while the ridges stay up a bit more...generally around the
50 degree mark.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 343 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A strong upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into next weekend. Surface high pressure will remain strong over the
region...with winds both at the surface and aloft pulling dry and
cool air in from Canada. The loss of nearly wind flow at both the
surface and aloft will lead to air mass modification and rising
temperatures throughout the extended. It now looks like the ridge
may strengthen heading through next weekend...likely keeping the
area dry and mild. The next chance of rain may arrive sometime early
to the middle part of next week as some kind of tropical disturbance
pushes north into the middle Mississippi River valley. Latest European model (ecmwf)
continues to slow down the progression of this its
possible rain chances may get pushed back even further.
Regardless...any system that tracks north will likely keep US in
southeasterly downsloping initially there is going to be
lots of dry air to overcome prior to any precipitation.
Thus...precipitation chances will remain in the slight chance


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 734 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Skies will clear out tonight across the area...with some LIFR or
worse fog forming in the deeper river valleys. Will continue to allow
for a touch of residual fog at sme and loz...but confidence remains
low that it will be worse than that with light northeast flow in
place and a deep layer of dry air and subsidence present just above
the surface. Once the fog Burns off between 12 and 14z...skies will
clear out once again as high pressure maintains control. Winds will
remain around 5 kts or less...generally out of the NE and east-northeast.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...geogerian

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