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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
355 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 355 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015

A high pressure ridge at the surface and a strengthening ridge
aloft over the southeast Continental U.S. Will be our dominant feature during
the period...bringing dry weather and clear to partly cloudy
skies. Low level parcel trajectories still will not allow for
significant moisture return. With a dry air mass and favorable
radiating conditions at night...we will continue to see
Ridge/Valley differences for lows. There will also be sizable
diurnal temperature ranges...especially for valleys.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 345 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015

The models remain in good agreement through the extended period with
an upper level ridge dominating the southeastern Continental U.S. Through the
first part of the weekend. This will allow for a relatively dry and
warmer than normal work week with afternoon temperatures in the
lower 80s and morning lows in the 50s. Model differences come into
play during the second half of the work week with a subtropical
system that develops off of the Carolina coast. The GFS is the most
aggressive in bringing the feature inland...which would help
weaken the ridge and perhaps allow for isolated showers and storms
in our area. The European model (ecmwf) continues to keep the low offshore which
would help keep a cap on any showers that try to form under the
ridge. So for now have kept only slight chance for showers in the
grids on Thursday where there is good moisture and instability
present. A better chance for rain returns to the area Sunday into
Monday as an ul trough pushes eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 216 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail during the period. The only
exception will be localized valley fog late tonight into Tuesday
morning...bringing IFR. taf sites should be affected.
Winds will be from the west or southwest around 10 kts or less
during this afternoon and at middle day Tuesday...and near calm
tonight into Tuesday morning.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hal
long term...jvm

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