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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
658 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

issued at 658 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Stratus continues to expand and has limited the fog this morning.
Even the ridges haven't really got into the fog all that badly yet.
Will stay the course downplaying the fog through daybreak. Best
potential for locally dense fog will be in the Bluegrass region where
skies have stayed a bit more clear. No real changes planned for the
forecast at this time.


Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 325 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to provide quiet
weather across eastern Kentucky this morning. A layer o stratus
continues to develop across much of southeast Kentucky as moisture
remains trapped below a subsidence inversion. Initially...skies had
cleared overnight allowing for some patchy dense valley fog.
However..since then...stratus has taken over and is now limited the
fog in the valleys. Still a few pockets of clearing out there...but
even these seem to be filling in. Thus...going to downplay the fog a
bit into the morning. May maintain the dense fog on the ridges as the
stratus continues to build down overnight. However...fog may be less
of a concern in the valleys.

Fog/stratus will lift/burn off fairly by middle morning...with sunshine
returning to the area. This will help temperatures warm to around 70
this afternoon. Some middle level clouds will drift across the area
tonight...and could impact possible fog formation. this
time...should not be enough to keep fog from will plan
to beef up the fog mention tonight. Quiet weather will continue
through Thursday with highs a degree or two warmer.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 325 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

There is good model agreement that an overall amplified pattern will
be on tap for the Continental U.S. Through the period. Initially...troughing
will be found across the eastern and western Continental U.S....with ridging in
the middle of the nation. In general...the upper level flow pattern
will temporarily flatten out by the end of the workweek...with the
ridge expanding more into the Mississippi Valley and the West Coast
trough gradually breaking down. By the weekend...ridging will be
amplifying across The Rockies...while troughing takes shape across
the Great Lakes...eventually expanding into the Ohio Valley and New
England through early next week.

For eastern Kentucky...generally dry weather will rule through the
first half of the weekend as we will be under the influence of
modest ridging aloft. Temperatures will be warming through the
period...with highs building back to near seasonal normals by the
weekend. On Sunday...a cold front will approach as a deepening
trough moves into the Great Lakes. The models have been varying with
the timing and intensity with this system...and expect future runs
to continue this will stick with the continuity that the
blended solution offers. The best chance of precipitation continues
to look in the Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning time frame.
Temperatures will return back to below normal by early next
week...with highs in the low to middle 70s...and lows back into the 40s
possibly by Tuesday night depending on clearing.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 658 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Stratus continues to hold across much of eastern Kentucky early this
morning. Ceilings range quite a bit across the area anywhere from just
below 1000 feet up to 5kft. We should see quick improvement after
daybreak as clouds begin to erode. We should see a return to VFR
conditions for all areas by middle to late morning. A better fog
potential night will exist tonight...but may be limited more to the
river valleys and may not impact taf sites all that much. It really
depends on how well we mix during the afternoon hours today. If we
can mix enough drier air into the boundary layer...we may avoid much
of the fog tonight.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...kas
long term...geogerian

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