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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
338 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 231 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Strong middle/upper level ridging will hold across the southeast
U.S. Into Friday...with dry and unseasonably warm weather
continuing for another day. Dew points are 10 to 20 degrees
higher today than yesterday afternoon. As a result we will not see
as great a difference in the ridge and valley lows tonight. The
low this morning at the quicksand mesonet site 3 miles from weather forecast office
Jackson was 28...while the minimum here on the ridge at the
Airport was 46. Will still see a 10 degree difference or so
between the colder valleys and the ridges for tonight/S
lows...with lows generally upper 30s to upper 40s. With full
sunshine highs on Friday would likely be warmer than today...but
with increasing clouds on Friday expect highs to be similar to
today. Rain chances will be on the increase over the northwest
part of the forecast area Friday night as a cold front approaches.
With clouds continuing to thicken Friday night there will be less
difference in minimum temperatures between the ridges and valleys.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 338 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

A surface cold front is expected to be near the Ohio River at the
start of the period...associated with a large positively tilted
trough from the SW Continental U.S. To Ontario...including a large closed
low in the tail of the trough. The NE portion of the trough
should remain progressive...and help to initially suppress
geopotential heights over the southeast Continental U.S. And allow the surface front
to slowly slip south through our area. Warm air
advection/overrunning will lead to rain along and behind the
front. The trend is for a slower movement...and have slowed the
arrival of higher probability of precipitation in my southeast counties. With the slow
movement of the front...we could see a notable temperature
gradient across the area during the weekend.

The large upper low from the western Continental U.S. Should finally move
east early next week. This will lead to surface cyclogenesis over
the middle of the nation. This will pull the frontal boundary back
north over the be followed by a cold front spiralingaround
the low and likely passing through the jkl forecast area Tuesday
afternoon or evening. This scenario presents a likelihood of more
rain each period until the cold front passes. Drier but colder
weather is anticipated Wednesday through Thursday. Behind the
front...GFS soundings remain more moist over our area than in the
European model (ecmwf). However...even in the GFS soundings...the moisture is
fairly shallow and at this point does not intersect the -10c level
for generation of ice crystals. For that reason...have not
mentioned precipitation Wednesday through Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1230 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

High pressure will continue to control the local weather into
Friday. South winds gusting to around 15 knots will affect open
areas...including most taf sites through the afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail through Friday.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...sbh
long term...hal

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