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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
837 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

issued at 837 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Freshened up the sky cover...temperatures...and dew points to
better jive with the current trends in observations.


Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 353 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Surface high pressure is currently centered near the eastern Ohio
Valley...with another cool night being enjoyed across eastern
Kentucky. Most valleys have dipped down into the low to middle 50s.
Aloft...a short wave trough is moving through the plains...with
a weak upper level low rotating near the Florida Panhandle.

Surface high pressure will continue to shift off to the east
today...allowing for warmer air to advect in across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. Highs today will reach the low to middle 80s for
most locations. Most of the higher resolution guidance shows some
isolated convection possible across our southeast today...although
they do look a bit overdone on the moisture...and with heights
building aloft...think that the cap should hold most convection at
Bay besides a stray pop up.

A weak 850 mb low level jet will engage across the Tennessee
Valley tonight...which will bring a more substantial increase in
moisture to eastern Kentucky. Lows tonight will mainly be in the
60s...although expect that some of the more sheltered valleys in
the far east will dip down into the 50s once again.

The increased moisture and a weaker cap on Saturday will allow
for the threat of at least isolated convection...particularly in
the western half of the forecast area. The cap in the east may
still be strong enough to stave off any pop will
maintain dry most of the guidance suggests. Highs
will top out in the middle 80s.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 353 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

The extended forecast period begins on Saturday night with a broad
ridge over the Central Plains and a upper low over the lower MS
River Valley. Through the extended...the ridge begins to weaken and
shifts eastward across the northern Continental U.S....eventually shifting to
over the upper Great Lakes and New England region by the end of
the extended. Meanwhile...during this time...the mentioned upper
low...and remnants of ts Erika under cut the upper ridge remaining
over the south central and southeastern Continental U.S. Through the end of
the extended as well.

Near the surface during this time...southerly flow northward into
the Ohio Valley and upper level support will allow for precipitation possible
Saturday night through Monday before strong surface high pressure
sets up centered over the middle Atlantic region. Besides the models
trying to input some development over Kentucky during the Tuesday
through Thursday...this time period looks to be overall dry or with
minimal chances for rainfall.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 837 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

IFR or worse fog will be burning off by 13z. Scattered stratocu
will be around through the day ranging between 4 and 6k feet above ground level.
IFR or worse fog will be seen once again in the river valleys
between 06 and 12z. Moisture will be returning some
MVFR fog at sme and loz looks possible. Winds will average around
5 kts or less through the period.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...geogerian
long term...shallenberger

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