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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
730 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 300 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

A period of dry and pleasant weather is store for the residents of
eastern Kentucky the next few days. As winds shift to the west and
northwest behind a departing area of low pressure aloft...drier
and cooler air will filter into the region. This change in air
mass will bring partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies to eastern
Kentucky today and tonight. We may see brief period of increased
cloud cover this evening through early a small wave
of low pressure moves out of the western Great Lakes region and
across the Ohio Valley through early tomorrow morning. Most of the
day Wednesday should feature mostly clear skies and light winds.

High temperatures today and tomorrow should maximum out right around
normal for this time of year...with highs each day expected to top
out around 70 for most locations. Overnight lows should also drop
to near normal values along our ridge tops. However...with dry air
continuing to filter into the region from the west...and with
near calm winds and clear skies on tap...our valleys could very
well see widespread lows in the upper 30s as radiational cooling
will be maximized overnight. The near calm and cool
conditions...coupled with rain moistened ground...will set the
stage for patch valley fog overnight. The amount of fog we
actually see overnight will also depend on how much dry air makes
it into the area during the day today.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 404 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

The models are in good agreement with am amplified pattern across
the Continental U.S. To begin the extended portion of the forecast. Ridging
will be in place from the Desert Southwest to the Pacific
northwest...with broad troughing along the eastern third of the
nation...and deeper troughing across the eastern Pacific. The
pattern will gradually dampen by early next the eastern
Pacific trough and rockies ridge effectively cancel themselves out
with time. Meanwhile...a short wave trough will be moving from the
northern plains through the Ohio Valley...helping to escort some
of the coldest air seen thus far across the area...and perhaps
lead to a few showers to conclude the work week. Stuck close to a
blended solution...although did a make a few adjustments to
temperatures to account for some of the likely underdone lows in
the valleys for the weekend.

High pressure will be building in across the area Wednesday
night...with lows likely dipping into the middle to upper 30s in the
valleys. Will maintain a touch of frost in the more sheltered
valleys...although patchy dense fog looks to be the more dominant
process given the pattern. Winds will quickly engage from the
southwest on Thursday...with highs recovering to the middle to upper
60s. A cold front will take aim at the area Thursday night into
Friday morning. Have allowed for some slight chance probability of precipitation as the
blended guidance suggested. The European model (ecmwf) has been consistent for the
last several runs...showing at least light precipitation possible.
Highs on Friday will be in the lower 60s...with lows Friday night
into Saturday down into the 30s once again. Saturday night looks
to be the chilliest night of the week...with guidance continuing
to suggest lower 30s for most locations. Will continue to
highlight the frost threat in the severe weather potential statement. The high will shift to the
east on Sunday...although decoupled valleys in the east Sunday
night into Monday morning will likely get down into the lower 30s
once again with some frost. After seeing highs in the middle to upper
50s for the weekend...temperatures will return to the 60s once
again by Monday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 730 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Not much fog to speak of around eastern Kentucky so far this
morning...but a few of the taf sites have experienced some fog
over the past few hours. Sym...jkl...and sme have all seen varying
amounts of fog since 9z. As of taf issuance time...only sym was
still reporting fog. The primary issue this morning has been a low
deck of stratus that has overspread most of the area. Ceilings have
dropped to as low as 100 to 400 feet at sme and loz...and 500 to
1000 feet at jkl and sym. Based on current satellite observation...these
low clouds will persist across the area until the sun comes up and
starts to erode them away. Once the stratus is gone...we can
expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the area the
rest of the day and into early tomorrow morning.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Arkansas
long term...geogerian

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